[2015 RWC] Pool C: New Zealand vs. Namibia (24/09/2015)

[ABs2011]

The AB's have too many old farts in the team, come quarter finals they will break down and we don't have any quality cover for them.

Which of the old boys do you have concerns about?

 

[Kiwi_]

To be fair you are calling it as YOU see it, not "we"

At the risk of repeating myself, this All Black team has a world class coaching staff, a world class squad, with a world class record over the last 4 years - they have only lost 3 times in 4 years. They have a fantastic mix of youth and experience, and are injury free (with the exception of a few ****les). They are basically guaranteed a QF spot and have two more pool games to continue building and working on some of their concerns. It's a tough tournament to win, particularly away from home, so perhaps "concern" is a relative thing. I'm not concerned at the moment. I acknowledge they need to work on a few things, but thats about it. Otherwise for me they are bang on track. The personnel they have and their record is enough for me to be happy to back these guys and give them all the benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing.

So 2 questions:Is there another team who's situation you would rather be in? If so who?

and given you "concerns", what are your predictions for this AB team?

My concern would be Ireland, with their strong forwards and explosive backs, they have the potential to really open us up in the first half of the game, before we do our usual 2nd half thing, just like at Landsdowne road, where they butchered the game fortunately.

 

[ABs2011]

My concern would be Ireland, with their strong forwards and explosive backs, they have the potential to really open us up in the first half of the game, before we do our usual 2nd half thing, just like at Landsdowne road, where they butchered the game fortunately.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying I think we are invincible. I think any number of teams could beat us aye! Ireland for sure are one of them.

My question to that other chap was, is there another team you think are tracking better than us? If so who?

 

[Larksea]

this was such a meaningless game. I was thinking the only thing we can take from it is that we didn't pick up any injuries though I hear now that Barrett & Slade have both sat out training with ****les.

then there are the negative aspects of the game, you can't blame Namibia, but they dont play to win they play to disrupt. That 2nd half was one of the worst halves of rugby I've ever watched. Part of the blame goes on the ref for allowing countless minutes of the game to drain away in scrums going nowhere or constantly resetting. There seemed like a period of about 20min where basically nothing happened, it was filled with scrums, stoppages, players down, water drinking and other folly.

The game was basically toilet filler.

#1 concern

The all blacks are facing the same tricky situation as they did in 2007. Weak pool games with no challenge leading into do or die knockout footy against tier 1 nations. Argentina offered a 60min challenge the rest of the pool games will be teams doing what Namibia tried to do. Disrupt the All Blacks and slow the game down with set pieces so they dont get blown away in the last 20min.

#2 concern

Savea scored a couple but still looks like crap. Making use of him in pick & go play around the ruck is a smart idea because he still has some power but out on the wing his pace has gone. He's either getting stopped or being put into touch. Its crazy watching a guy who for the last few years went over or around a defender pretty much every single time he got the ball to struggling to make the gain line against 2nd tier nations. The problems Savea has are simply not going to come right overnight. Best option right now would be to bring piutau onto that left wing but he's not even in the squad. The squad was picked in the thinking that Savea owns the 11 jersey but the signs have been there for a long time that Savea is well off his best. I hope he doesn't go down as another player who was absolutely epic between world cups. Best winger in the world for the last 2-3 years, WC comes along and hes an also ran...

Another key cog that's under performing is Kaino, its a bit more of a mystery. He's still toiling hard at times but really struggling to have that trademark physical impact he's known for. However unlike Savea who I think is shot for now. Kaino still has the potential to turn it on come the more important games he's worth persevering with.

At this stage... we really aren't going to have a clue where the AB's are at till the quarter finals roll around.... Its sad but true. Its going to be really hard to do but somehow the players need to click and string together 3 great games. and bring that "calmly score more points than the other guys over 80 minutes" attitude that's become a trademark of the side. Staying in touch for 60min and winning the last 20.

we also need some guys to step up and play big games. IMO the guys most likely to do that are:

McCaw - the big games will come, his game will lift, he will top the tackle count and be at almost every ruck, he will carry the ball with everything he's got. Hopefully he's got that one brain explosion (trip) out of his system.
Sam Whitelock - Retalick has been struggling a bit, basically playing between injuries. We know how good Sam is I really want to see him have a few huge games.
Dane Coles - we know when defenders eyes are on guys like Nonu & SBW they sleep on Coles and he can nail 40m trys. We need more of the same.
Kieran Read - seems to be building nicely. Has had some flack but he has some big games in him I think.
Aaron Smith - we desperately need this kid to find that spark of his for the knockout games. Hes a proven match winner.
Nonu - with his best super rugby season ever behind him hes been a little underwhelming so far in the WC. He is a guy that can have a big game against a team like Australia, which we may need.
SBW - has shown with the injury issues behind him now hes pure class and a match winner when the players around him are good enough to take his super offloads. I can see him having a big impact against teams like england, ireland & the welsh
Ben Smith - he's been good but he has another gear to his game. I'm almost certian he will find that gear when needed.
Barrett - always has the potential to rule the last 20min of a game.
charlie faumuina - hes actually looking pretty good again and like Barrett he can play a really important roll in the last 20-30min.

But two most of all

Dan Carter - its all about getting dan carter to the finals and hoping against hope that he makes it through and does what we know he can do. He's held back his running game but IMO it's there waiting to be unleashed when the time is right. He actually looks very fast and dangerous to me he's just been keeping it back and avoiding unnecessary contact and focusing on controlling the game.

Naholo - will he or wont he? that's THE question. What sort of condition is he in and what impact can he make after so long confined to the sidelines & training field? Best scenario we see some of the magical and deadly combination work with his highlanders team mates Ben & Aaron Smith. Secret weapon or failure to launch....? The papers will tell you we left Dagg & Jane at home for this guy, but IMO we really left Piutau & Moala at home for this guy. They are the form players, Moala has been running in trys in ITM cup and destroying defensive lines everywhere all season. Puitau was our best and most consistent back over the first three tests this season. IMO if either Piutau or Moala had been included in this squad they would right now be one of the players we would be talking about as the best performers in the squad. Nehe's performance have been ok, probably overstated a bit. It still seems like despite Nehe going "ok" we REALLY need Naholo to come in fully loaded and set to destroy.

Players I dont see having a big impact... Or not as much as we expect.

Savea - as ive gone over...
Woodcock - he seems below his best. He really just needs to focus on holding his own at the scrums and showing his experience around the field. Work his arse off.
Conrad Smith - he maybe our best 13 ever but right now he seems a little off the boil. Known as an epic defender but all he has to do is miss a couple and the questions get asked. That's kinda where he is right now, though he's fully capable of coming good.
Retalick - best lock in the world without a doubt but he's going from injury to ****le at the moment. It's holding him back a bit.

yeah short list, our players are pretty dam good....

Lastly, our bench is fantastic, best in the world. Cane/Messam/Vito, barrett, SBW, Faumuina, Crockett, Fekitoa, Perenara are all class. Cane, SBW & Barrett being the star performers. These guys are as important as the starting 15 & the All Blacks are the one true 23 man team in the world. We are going to need that to keep paying off.

 

[ABs2011]

Hi Larksea:

on #1 I agree it is a bit of a concern, BUT, as opposed to 2007, it appears the ABs have learnt from that and will play the first team from Georgia on. IF thats the case then I am happy we are doing everything we can and that we will be ok on that account.

on #2

Savea - yup he is a concern. It will be interesting if he is selected for Georgia and still considered a better option than NMS. IF he is, I will back the AB selectors that they have seen enough improvements from him in training to warrant his continued selection. Back the selectors is all Im saying as they see more than us.

Pretty fair evaluation of the rest of the lads IMO.

 

[Scrum Bum]

Very nice analysis, I agree!

I like the idea of running two smaller quicker wingers, however I think the game plan of the AB's 11 is to play him into the game off set pieces etc and then quickly get the ball out wide. Therefore at 11 we need a power runner.. I'd say try SBW at 11, Pretty sure he saw a game at 11 or 14 in last world cup against Argentina(?). It's the curse of the 11.. when our last great 11 played, he was touted as better than Lomu.. but towards the end of his career he faded badly.

 

[ABs2011]

Very nice analysis, I agree!

I like the idea of running two smaller quicker wingers, however I think the game plan of the AB's 11 is to play him into the game off set pieces etc and then quickly get the ball out wide. Therefore at 11 we need a power runner.. I'd say try SBW at 11, Pretty sure he saw a game at 11 or 14 in last world cup against Argentina(?). It's the curse of the 11.. when our last great 11 played, he was touted as better than Lomu.. but towards the end of his career he faded badly.

SBW definitely played wing against Arg and came on at wing in the Japan I think.

Yeah, I;m pretty sure the big winger small winger thing is something the ABs like and utilise as u say. The crash guy is important, whether it is a decoy or not, its utilised a lot. That being said, Naholo could perhaps run the same lines.

 

[Mcfadden]

You reap what you sew as far as the wingers go. Tried to say Piutau would suit a WC environment more because A) he's in form, B) he's versatile, C) we know exactly what we're getting and D) he's quick but can drive in contact. But no one really wanted to know when I brought it up. People just screamed at me to justify myself for being so stupid. Now we're stuck with a guy out of form and a guy who's had 60 or whatever minutes of rugby. Happy to be proven wrong, just want it to work out really.

 

[ABs2011]

You reap what you sew as far as the wingers go. Tried to say Piutau would suit a WC environment more because A) he's in form, B) he's versatile, C) we know exactly what we're getting and D) he's quick but can drive in contact. But no one really wanted to know when I brought it up. People just screamed at me to justify myself for being so stupid. Now we're stuck with a guy out of form and a guy who's had 60 or whatever minutes of rugby. Happy to be proven wrong, just want it to work out really.

I wasn't around when you guys had the Piutau discussion but IMO he effectively ruled himself of the RWC when he made an agreement in principle with the ABs then broke their trust by backing out altogether. So he is a bit of a non issue I reckon. I think there is no doubt he would have been there otherwise.

Let's just see how Naholo goes. He was no doubt the find of the season, so if he is even close to where he was when he got injured then we are golden.

 

[Larksea]

I agree SBW is an "option" on the wing but I cant see us going into a knockout game without him getting some proper experience there. You could also say that Nonu is an option on the wing as well, maybe even Fekitoa...

Fact still remains the absolute best option for that position now is Piutau and hes not in the squad, and you can bet its political. Ignoring what Hansen & co said, of course it was due to the sour contract negotiations.

But Jane and Dagg are basically broken right now. If there is an injury in the backs the options are basically Crotty and Piutau. If any of the outside backs go down Piutau will have to come in.

I think my biggest disappointment with the coaching since 2011 is that we basically had the blueprint for what the ideal WC test winger was in Richard Kahui and 4 years later we dont have any wingers like Kahui in the squad... Tall, fast, impeccable under the high ball, world class defender, fantastic punt and kick chaser, superb finisher and a genuine decision maker. We seem to have gone back to the formula from 2007 where x-factor ruled selection and Sivivatu & Rokocoko were first choice, but it doesn't work. Field position is going to rule the knockout games, not x-factor.

Right now for the AB's before the knockout games the most important work has to happen on the training field. As the favorites we are going to strike desperate teams with unusual and borderline tactics, the ABs need to look at what that may potentially be and make plans to counter it. And also do homework on the referees and learn to read them and adjust quickly.

 

[Icemn]

Personally i'm not to worried at this stage of the RWC with the Ab performance. Hanson is a master tactician and its way to early to "show his hand" unlike the boks vs samoa

I've said it many times, the reason why NZ got knocked out in previous RWC was because of their greatest asset, their Dept

they could easily field 4 teams each capable of winning a world cup

the problem came in with selection, not knowing who to field so they kept chopping and changing to give everyone a chance

good and well, but this breaks momentum and continuity

now, they know who their starting 15 is... once Hanson start playing these guys week and week the performances will improve

you can see that Hanson has used some of the pool games as a platform to test the players and for them to prove themselves

From the next game he will start fielding the starting 15 for the rest of the tournament, taking each game and ref at a time

These guys will start to click, remember the AB are away from home, in NZ they are a different animal so it will take a few games for them to gel

i just don't want Hanson to chop and change the squad too much

 

[ABs2011]

I agree SBW is an "option" on the wing but I cant see us going into a knockout game without him getting some proper experience there. You could also say that Nonu is an option on the wing as well, maybe even Fekitoa...

Fact still remains the absolute best option for that position now is Piutau and hes not in the squad, and you can bet its political. Ignoring what Hansen & co said, of course it was due to the sour contract negotiations.

But Jane and Dagg are basically broken right now. If there is an injury in the backs the options are basically Crotty and Piutau. If any of the outside backs go down Piutau will have to come in.

I think my biggest disappointment with the coaching since 2011 is that we basically had the blueprint for what the ideal WC test winger was in Richard Kahui and 4 years later we dont have any wingers like Kahui in the squad... Tall, fast, impeccable under the high ball, world class defender, fantastic punt and kick chaser, superb finisher and a genuine decision maker. We seem to have gone back to the formula from 2007 where x-factor ruled selection and Sivivatu & Rokocoko were first choice, but it doesn't work. Field position is going to rule the knockout games, not x-factor.

Right now for the AB's before the knockout games the most important work has to happen on the training field. As the favorites we are going to strike desperate teams with unusual and borderline tactics, the ABs need to look at what that may potentially be and make plans to counter it. And also do homework on the referees and learn to read them and adjust quickly.

Just to add, Dagg is broken (shoulder out for the season) BUT Jane is playing and has done so for much of the ITM cup, so not sure what info you got there.