I've gone for what I think should be the Lions 1st Test team, and what I expect the ABs team to be, and done a bit of a comparison, as my initial thoughts were there's barely a Lions player who would make the ABs team. Turned out that was some Kiwi hubris!
1. M. Vunipola v Moody - Both excellent scrummagers and strong in the loose, with the powerful running of Mako matching well to the ball handling skills of Moody. Both can also cause chaos at the breakdown getting over the ball and being unmovable. I'll call it EVENS
2. Owens v Coles - Coles is a better open field runner, strong at the scrum and straight at the line-out. Owens had a good 6 nations but I don't see him being successful in open play compared to Coles. +1 AB
3. Furlong v Franks - Franks didn't play against Furlong in Chicago and NZ lost; go figure. He's been a stalwart for NZ and is a ferocious tackler and scrummager. Furlong has been playing very well the last 12 months and was incredible against the ABs, so explosive as a runner. Because of this, I think Furlong just edges it. +1 BILs
4. AWJ v Retellick - Retellick is the best lock in the world, AWJ is a dog and will tackle all day but he's not going to out-fight the former WPOTY. Retellick wins it. +1 AB
5. Itoje v Whitelock - Pretty even here I'd say. I'd take the ABs second row over the Lions one combined, and Itoje is undoubtedly a talent. However, Whitelock has lead the 'Saders very well this year and I expect to step up into the senior players group in the ABs comfortably. EVENS
6. O'Mahony v Kaino - I prefer POM here to Kaino. I know Kaino has been playing well this season with a less than successful blues team, but POM's performance against England shows what the boy can do. He'll be in scrapping like a terrier and while he may not have the ball skills of Kaino, I fancy him to have the beating of him. +1 BILs
7. Warburton v Cane/Savea - Savea has been tearing up trees down under, outplayed Cane recently and would be my pick for 7 due to his line running. Cane is the heir to McCaw and is very much the on the fringes player McCaw was, so it's a toss-up as to who plays there. Warburton really improved this 6 nations, but was outplayed against Scotland and before the 6 nations, when he was the captain, had been unremarkable. Either way it's an AB win. +1 ABs
8. B. Vunipola v Reid - I'd take Billy here purely due to his physicality. He makes meters when other wouldn't. I know Reid has been incredible for such a long time, but I worry about whether he's still got the phyiscality to compete with Billy, who is an absolute machine. +1 BILs
9. Murray v Perenara/Smith - Perenara is playing the best rugby at 9 in the world atm. His link-up play with Barrett is unreal. Murray can undoubtedly play well and I thought he dominated Smith in Chicago, and could do the same if Smith plays. So I'll make this all square as it comes down to which 9 the ABs play. EVENS
10. Sexton/Farrell v Barrett - BB is the best 10 in the world. +1 ABs
11. North v Savea - Savea after being pretty poor (and unfit) at the beginning of last season has not made the same mistake this time and been fantastic for the Canes this season. North has been volatile and for me his tackling positioning is so often poor. He can't get out of shape against Savea or it'll be another concussion for him. +1 ABs
12. Farrell/Henshaw v SBW/Crotty - I'm hedging bets here as 10/12/13 will depend on whether Gatland wants two 10s or not. SBW didn't show much in his first showing back from injury which is fair enough, and Crotty has been making line breaks this season and is excellent defensively, certainly enough to front up against Henshaw/Farrell. But I'm going to call this even as it all comes down to who the match-up is EVENS
13. Henshaw/JJ v Lienart-Brown - JJ has played 1 excellent game against an under-performing Scottish side at international level. If it's Henshaw I can see this being a brilliant tussle but if it's JJ, Lienart-Brown has excellent handling skills and has the pace to match JJ. So again a cop-out and EVENS
14. Williams v Naholo - Big fan of Liam Williams. Love his ability to step and the way he runs (with those bow-legs) makes him very difficult to tackle. Defensively he's also fairly solid. Naholo is still developing but his ability to finish is impeccable. I prefer his handling/offloading skills to Williams so overall I'll call it a draw. EVENS
15. Hogg v B Smith - Smith's defence and better skills under the high ball mean I think he'll be more important for the ABs than Hogg will be for the Lions. Sure Hogg will get line-breaks, but I think Smith will too but Smith will also be albe to save tries and release the pressure due to his skills under the high ball. +1 ABs
So I make that
ABs - 6
BILs - 3
EVENS - 6
When I came into this I actually thought it'd be much more one sided in favour of the ABs but there's going to be some really excellent match-ups right across the pitch. I still expect a 3-0 series victory for the ABs.
