I'm really pushed for time right now, so this is not exactly the detailed reply I would like.
Had Churchill not been PM after the fall of France, a Government headed by Halifax would have accepted Hitlers peace terms.
Based on?
Sending John Bryans to Germany to undermine Hitler?
Anyway, even if we take that rather large leap and assume that parliament bowed to one man and swung from a policy of appeasement to war to the death....
no Battle of Britain which wiped off a 3rd of the Luftwaffe's strength (which it failed to replace before Barbarossa) and no campaign in the Western Desert but we will come onto that later.
The Western Desert was a sideshow - was there ever more than ten divisions deployed in the field?
The Battle of Britain is a point worth debating - the problem with your reasoning is that the Luftwaffe had no trouble obtaining air superiority over the Soviet Airforce in the early days of Barbarossa, and very few ground attack aircraft were committed to attacking England after early sorties showed how vulnerable they were.
- With the British empire still in the war at the end of 1940 Nazi Germany decided to starve them into submission and started the longest campaign of the war: The battle of the Atlantic. Now why was this important and why was Churchill key to it? Well because his cousin happened to be the President of the United States and it was this campaign and Churchill's relationship with Roosevelt that brought America into the war with Germany from a material perspective even before Pearl Harbour which would be possibly the deciding factor of the whole war. Before Pearl Harbour the US navy was engaging the Kriegsmarine in the Atlantic, was supplying the Royal Navy with destroyers and providing air cover from Greenland to the Eastern sea board. None of this would have been possible had it not been Churchill's ability to persuade the President of a very isolationist country to effectively go to war. Yes some Americans like Henry Ford also supplied the Nazi's but Churchill was key to bringing the industrial might of the US into the war, something that would save the Soviet Union from defeat in the coming years.
Most of the US supplied equipment was unsuitable for use in the Russian climate. About the most valuable thing supplied were jeeps/trucks IIRC.
- June 1941 and Nazi Germany invade the Soviet Union and start the biggest, most destructive war in the history of mankind. Now what is often forgotten is the state of the Wehrmacht prior to this invasion. It was short of aircraft (thanks to the Battle of Britain) and its Panzer arm was short of fuel and its tanks were worn out having fought a brief but logistically tough campaign in the Balkans and Greece. This was not a campaign that the Nazi's had wanted to fight but because the pro Nazi government in Yugoslavia had been toppled by a British intelligence led coup (who would not be involved had Britain not still been in the war) and given the strategic importance of the this area Hitler had to intervene also Italy had bungled its invasion of Greece and Commonwealth troops were sent their to assist the Greeks so the Germans had to intervene again. Now both campaigns were over quickly and the performance of the Commonwealth troops were not the best but it delayed the start of Barbarossa and ate up fuel and spare parts that were to make all the difference in the coming months.
Everything else is pretty much irrelevant apart from bolded. Was that pivotal? Could the wehrmacht have captured Moscow before the winter of '41 otherwise? Possibly. Would it have mattered in the end? Probably not.
I think you are not grasping the scale of the deployment into Russia (and the Soviet deployment against). The Germans deployed over 130 divisions into Russia at the start of Barbarossa.
- In the first 2 months of Barbarossa the Germans inflict a number of cataclysmic defeats on the Red Army. Now Stalin is as much to blame for that as the Germans but even with these losses the Germans are still no closer to defeating the Soviet Union than they were in June. Yes they had captured millions of prisoners and lots of land but the Red Army was still able to field formations so the goal of Barbarossa: the destruction of the red army was still a long way off. Now for all the German success they are starting to have some real problems: They are running out of infantry, casualties are close to 200k which represents 30% of the total infantry numbers ( 3 million Germans invaded the USSR but most of these soldiers would be in support units) this was down to the Red Army so no credit to Mr Churchill there, they had also run out of fuel which you can credit to the earlier campaigns in 1941. Many think that the capture of Moscow would have ended the war in 1941 (Im not one of those people but..) the Germans were not able to do this because by December 1941 the Wehrmacht was in such a poor state in terms of men and materials that the Soviet counter attack outside Moscow almost defeated the Germans in 1941. Now they would have been in a much better position had they had more men (thanks to the red army) more fuel and vehicles (thanks to all the 1941 campaigns not just Babarossa), more aircraft (thanks to the RAF) and the very capable Panzer Division currently tied up in the Western desert.
Ah look. If army A is ten times bigger than army B, then in a week it will use 10 times the material.
Greece/Yugoslavia lasted about what, 4 weeks? (ignore Crete, its the sideshow of a sideshow) - so judging solely by deployment size - the Germans would have saved themselves approximately 6 days of fuel. Of course, in the cold weather fuel use would be much heavier, not to mention the additional needed due to operating off the end of a single rail spur. So that 6 days is probably more like 3.
The Germans had expected to use ~2.6
million gallons of fuel
per day, but found they were actually using 3.4
million gallons
per day. I'll say that again. 3.4 million gallons of fuel per day.
To put that in perspective, the largest
possible Luftwaffe formations fielded over England was 15th Sept.
533: Me109
107 Me110
484 He110/Do17
Splitting the bombers 50:50 and taking the full fuel capacity of every plane, that adds up to 611,800 gallons... and that was the busiest day of the BoB. Take the average sorties over the duration of BoB and, your likely looking at maybe 10 days additional fuel use in Russia!