A Political Thread

[Groundhog]

Mike Pence says he will back the Good Friday agreement when he visits here next month. Talk about strange bed fellows. The mostly Republican Irish American caucus have said as much before. At least thats one thing they don't want to year apart because a Democrat had a hand in it.

 

[Amiga500]

Definitely now wondering whether buying a house in NI is sensible

Don't panic.

There will be a border poll within a couple of years as the place grinds to a halt economically. The road from here to there will be very rocky, but at the far end it should fix much of the current mess.

As long as the Shinners don't become (even more) stupidly triumphant about things then there may not be too much tension as I think things will get that bad economically.


If you buy near the train line to Dublin then you'll not go too far wrong. The price of housing in Dublin means a good rail link (which you gotta imagine the EU will fund) will see Belfast, Lisburn, Portadown & Newry become commuter towns to Dublin (which is starting to replace London as the English speaking gateway to the EU).

Of course, prices may depress along the timeframe, so best time to buy may not be now [in saying that, we're in the midst of buying/moving now anyway!].

 

[Amiga500]

What drivel. The British army has several bases in NI now and recruits from there too. Are you saying Regiments like the RIH and Irish Guards don't belong in their own country?

Their presence "on the streets" will only make things significantly worse, regardless of their intentions or regardless of whether 99.99% of them are utterly brilliant at managing crowds and interacting with the locals.

Its a fairly straightforward path to violence.

1. Hard Brexit.
2. Border posts have to be erected to manage customs.
3. Dissident republicans shoot up these posts.
4. Army deployed to guard posts.
5. Further dissident republican attacks on posts.
6. Loyalists respond by attacking nationalist areas.
7. Dissidents attack loyalist areas.
8. ***-for-tat ensues and young naive idiots (or those seeking revenge) join both sides in the droves.

On top of that, you'll have an economic depression and the border poll. The border poll will pass as the swing voters will be swayed by the economic case of joining the ROI and remaining in the EU. Violence will largely die down after that as the dissidents have no reason to exist anymore and the loyalists will know they'll never get the union back and most will see things are better off.


The best way to avoid it is to have NI remain in CU. Avoids the border posts and avoids the economic meltdown of NI.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Their presence "on the streets" will only make things significantly worse, regardless of their intentions or regardless of whether 99.99% of them are utterly brilliant at managing crowds and interacting with the locals.

That was the crux of my point coupled with the fact history suggests 99.99% won't be anywhere near brilliant interacting with locals. Giving up direct London rule and de facto demilitarisation of the region are the significant aspects of Westminster's involvement in the GFA. If either of those were to end (and it be the fault of Westminster, they're dead right to be forcing certain laws on the North right now) it'll be considered an aggression and trouble will follow, trouble that the British army can't deal with.

 

[Amiga500]

trouble that the British army can't deal with.

I think the army is under no illusions and do not want to deal with it either!

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think the army is under no illusions and do not want to deal with it either!

Yeah, no doubt, they never wanted to be there.

 

[ncurd]

Don't think many people in the army in Ireland currently want to be stationed there if no deal Brexit happens.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I think the army is under no illusions and do not want to deal with it either!

Yeah such postings are no win situations for the military. You have all the risk of being attacked without the ability to attack back unless you want to cause a massive problem and escalate the entire thing. The only thing that could help is the fact that relations between the Irish and the British now are much better than they were during the troubles. That could change very quickly though...

 

[ncurd]

Problem is it will only take 20ish Irish republicans to escalate it beyond all reasonable measure. Cool heads will no prevail if a couple of border posts are attacked.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Problem is it will only take 20ish Irish republicans to escalate it beyond all reasonable measure. Cool heads will no prevail if a couple of border posts are attacked.

The situations ****** to be honest. Putting up a border would be the end to the compromise reached in the GFA, the republicans will see that as an escalation beyond reasonable measure (which it is because there are so many other ways to approach it which is better for literally everyone) and Amiga's line of events will ensue. If the border is put up I hope it doesn't revert back to what it was and I hope innocent people aren't put in as much danger. (Ideally NI would continue to be the safe place with a decent level of opportunity but it's beyond naive to think there will be no trouble if a border is put up in this country)

 

[McTallshort]

Yeah such postings are no win situations for the military. You have all the risk of being attacked without the ability to attack back unless you want to cause a massive problem and escalate the entire thing. The only thing that could help is the fact that relations between the Irish and the British now are much better than they were during the troubles. That could change very quickly though...

With respect your talking from a position of ignorance. NI then and indeed now is seen as good posting. Yes your person security has to be tighter and you were occasionally in harm's way but that's your job. The fact was the accommodation was good, you had a decent bit of money and there was always the chance of getting involved with 14 int which was good for career progression. As for interactions with the public, about 2/3s of population seemed fine and the other 1/3 hated you (which was understandable). But the biggest problem for the people in NI wasnt the British army but the divisions between themselves that had more to do with clinging onto past grievances and religious bigotry. That hasn't gone away and the fact that people worry a closed border might reignite past troubles is a rather sad indictment of the people who live there.

 

[ncurd]

The situations ****** to be honest. Putting up a border would be the end to the compromise reached in the GFA, the republicans will see that as an escalation beyond reasonable measure.

Whilst I understand the republicans view on this (and honestly if I were Irish I'd want nothing to do with Westminster currently) my definition of 'escalation beyond reasonable measure' is when attacks that threaten the lives of people start occurring.

Putting up a border is a massively stupid thing to do considering the tensions it would build but that still not a good reason to intend to kill people over.

 

[McTallshort]

Whilst I understand the republicans view on this (and honestly if I were Irish I'd want nothing to do with Westminster currently) my definition of 'escalation beyond reasonable measure' is when attacks that threaten the lives of people start occurring.

Putting up a border is a massively stupid thing to do considering the tensions it would build but that still not a good reason to intend to kill people over.

This. It's not our fault we start killing people....

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

the biggest problem for the people in NI wasnt the British army but the divisions between themselves that had more to do with clinging onto past grievances and religious bigotry.

Thats an overly simplified and incorrect.

That hasn't gone away and the fact that people worry a closed border might reignite past troubles is a rather sad indictment of the people who live there.

That's insulting and further displays a lack of knowledge of the history of the region.

Whilst I understand the republicans view on this (and honestly if I were Irish I'd want nothing to do with Westminster currently) my definition of 'escalation beyond reasonable measure' is when attacks that threaten the lives of people start occurring.

Putting up a border is a massively stupid thing to do considering the tensions it would build but that still not a good reason to intend to kill people over.

I agree with the second paragraph, there's no good reason to kill people.

A border would be breaking an international agreement and provoking the nationalist community in the North. Everyone who isn't being purposefully obtuse knows such a provocation will result in killings so going forward with it would land the blame as much on Westminster as it on whoever fires a gun. It'd be like waving red in front of a bull and claiming the bull was totally unreasonable and you did nothing wrong, Westminster have done exactly this and are going to do it again if something isn't sorted but it's still not right.

 

[McTallshort]

Thats an overly simplified and incorrect.


That's insulting and further displays a lack of knowledge of the history of the region.


I agree with the second paragraph, there's no good reason to kill people.

A border would be breaking an international agreement and provoking the nationalist community in the North. Everyone who isn't being purposefully obtuse knows such a provocation will result in killings so going forward with it would land the blame as much on Westminster as it on whoever fires a gun. It'd be like waving red in front of a bull and claiming the bull was totally unreasonable and you did nothing wrong, Westminster have done exactly this and are going to do it again if something isn't sorted but it's still not right.

It might be insulting because the truth often hurts. The fact your comparing a community with the mentally of a animal is pretty insulting to I would imagine

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

It might be insulting because the truth often hurts. The fact your comparing a community with the mentally of a animal is pretty insulting to I would imagine

Christ and that's you trying to be clever...

Look man, if you ignore the fact that the nationalist community were subject to Gerrymandering allowed by your government which rendered them more or less without a vote, and you ignore that the RUC and loyalist forces who your former colleagues later colluded with started the violence in response to nationalists peacefully protesting very current grievances, and that a systemic two tiered class system existed well into 90's, and that the British Army stood idle and allowed the UVF force Catholics out of their homes in mixed communities, and that British Occupation in Ireland has been disputed from the second it began, and a whole lot more things in living memory then you can pretend that your government and former employees have played no role in ******* that part of the world up beyond what was ever needed and that Irish people should have just accepted being treated like **** in the 60's and should just accept the GFA (which is literally a recognition that all parties were to blame and a delicate compromise to satisfy everyone) being broken despite everything it has achieved.

But it's a whole lot of pretending, and it's currently one reason why your country is ****** and heading for a no deal brexit because Boris knows that there's enough people like you who will ignore history and blame any violence solely on the Irish and not on the latest example of mismanagement by Westminster of the region. It's another example of politicians using division within the UK for their own benefit.

This isn't an us vs them/you vs me ******* contest by the way, I don't want a border and I don't want violence (I have as much to lose there as anyone not living there could) but you can't ignore a problem over and over and not take any blame when it escalates.

The saddest indictment of worry of violence due to a new border is that after the longest and one of the most unsuccessful military operations your army ever had, after all the criticism and political pressure your government were subject to due to their incompetence in the area, and after a solid and continuing campaign to apologise and rectify anything they possibly could over the past ten years your government will happily and knowingly throw it all away for no discernible reason.

 

[Groundhog]

Right before this turns into a show, can I say no one is rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of a return to violence on our doorsteps here bar the same Republican and unionist paramilitaries who never went away and no doubt some idiot kids who have no idea what will come. Ultimately it's insulting to say the people of the north are their own problem when the biggest thing threatening the hard fought peace is a new wave of British nationalism and rhetoric. This wasn't inevitable.

No one is being an apologist for IRA killings, while at the same time the British government can't shrug their shoulders and blame them'uns when they've essentially torn apart the internationally ratified agreement upon which peace in this country is predicated, which let's not forget they signed and committed to.

 

[Amiga500]

Whilst I understand the republicans view on this (and honestly if I were Irish I'd want nothing to do with Westminster currently) my definition of 'escalation beyond reasonable measure' is when attacks that threaten the lives of people start occurring.

Putting up a border is a massively stupid thing to do considering the tensions it would build but that still not a good reason to intend to kill people over.

You are implying that the first trigger pullers are rationale.

They are not. Indeed they are utterly irrational (or stupid being led by the irrational).

Either way, the nutcases on the fringes of both sides have the power to light the powderkeg.


edit: swapped assuming for implying. Dunno if you are assuming or just worded badly.

 

[Amiga500]

That hasn't gone away and the fact that people worry a closed border might reignite past troubles is a rather sad indictment of the people who live there.

That may be true or false - but its reflection on the people is largely irrelevant.

90% of the populace who are not running around with armalites or pipe bombs stand to be caught up in it through no fault of their own.

It should not be downplayed as merely a "worry" a few people have, its more or less accepted among the vast majority that reinstating a hard border will lead to violence.

 

[ncurd]

You are assuming that the first trigger pullers are rationale.

They are not. Indeed they are utterly irrational (or stupid being led by the irrational).

Either way, the nutcases on the fringes of both sides have the power to light the powderkeg.

I agree entirely. We are setting up kegs placing them on the border and even handing the nutcases a box of matches. And we are utterly barmy to do so.

My point is simply they are completely irrational and that is explained by them justifying a border (which again I understand the reason for their objections) is allowed to result in peoples death. Any line of reasoning which leads to 'its okay for me to kill the opposition' has to irriational.