[EOYT] France vs South Africa 23/11/13

[TRF_heineken]

Not sure what NZL is..New Zea Land?

But this game I'm really looking forward to. I think South Africa will take it based on just more time jelling as a side - and they've looked a lot more dynamic this year, particularly in the backline. I'll be very disappointed if Willie Le Roux doesn't start. Also I feel South Africa aren't making it easy on themselves selecting some of these overseas based players. Fourie du Preez has come back looking every bit the general of the Boks backline he was when he left, but if he's now not avalible for this match SA now don't seem to be able to adapt well to Ruan Pienaar.

Habanna, Pieterson and Le Roux could be a lethal combination - I HM will go much more conservative.

The scrum will be very interesting as well - I expect it to be a very even contest (I'd probably start Steenkamp over Beast but it won't happen).

I'm interested to see if HM will use the French-based players over the other players in the team. Because then the team could look a lot like the team that played against Scotland, with Vermaak coming in Du Preez's spot and Morne into Lambie's spot...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'm hoping for

1Steenkamp, 2Du Plessis (assuming he manages to find his jumpers again after that weird performance otherwise bring him off ASAP), 3Adriaanse (I see Coenie as worth more off the bench), 4Etzebeth, 5Van der Merwe, 6Louw, 7Alberts, 8Vermeulen, 9Vermaak, 10Steyn, 11Habana, 12De Villiers, 13Fourie (but bring him off quickly if he doesn't make up for last week early), 14Pietersen, 15Le Roux

16Mtawarira, 17Strauss, 18Du Toit (to come on as early as possible), 19(Kolisi), 20Pienaar (simply because we have no one else there), 20Goosen, 21Engelbrecht, 22Oosthuizen


ITO game plan what I'm thinking we should do is not see France as a threat. What I mean here is not that they aren't, of course not, in fact I see us as slight underdogs so we should be well motivated BUT I really think we should back our line-out and maul at every chance we get. If France can stop us then change the approach but that is what has been working for us. The one time we went for poles against Scotland Lambie missed the penalty while we got two tries from two attempts with mauling it from the 5m line-out. Play for territory, attack the opposition line-out, back our defence in tandem with our ability to turn over possession on the deck and attack off turn-over ball and back Le Roux to punish sloppy kick returns when he feels it's on. So do what has been working for us and see if it works against France as well; play our game rather than try and adopt to France basically.

 

[Big Ewis]

My early, global-picture prediction for the match:

France lose this game. In the image of their entire 2013 season, good elements surface consistently throughout the game but the result ultimately lacks as France lose the match at home. It's been a year of many defeats, but again not many matches where competitiveness lacked. But at this point, S.A. are too focused on their game plan, simple and effective, similar to how England approach the game, just different in some areas.
France have finally found themselves it seems, and all their strengths will finally mean something when they're put to contribution for a greater scheme of things, as their identity lately has been scrum+ultra-tight defense mainly, with the attacking intentions but few results. But finding themselves won't suffice, as they need to actually execute accordingly, and that I don't think will be there entirely on Saturday.
It will be a close defeat, frustrating as always for France this year, but the Boks will not leave Paris without some bruises figuratively speaking, and may be exposed in the French capital in a way neither Wales nor Scotland managed to do.
Our attack just isn't at ease yet, and we have backs with good technical qualities but just not enough time together, it's been very clear these first 2 tests.

So basically, S.A. are too comfortable and established as a force, despite some visible flaws, and France come close but ultimately miss it by a foot.
France dismantles and the Top 14 resumes, the FFR eagerly waiting for a 6N full of realistic, and high-reaching ambitions.

On the other hand:
it's not nearly far-fetched to believe France finally *just clicks*. We've been waiting for the "great awakening" of the French team, that one match where they display perfect form, but that won't come - simply because France are already world class in most aspects, but the one important aspect, attacking.
If they click - simply click - they have enough talent to score a good try or two. All they need is with all the breaks we make, all the meters we'll get from our stronger carriers, we just need those plays to conclude in the most standard way; all the rest (to get in position to score) we have managed regularly in two tests. If the right pass is made with simply the right timing, and the backs play to their ability - France seriously don't need to play an amazing game to win this, I don't think people understand.
The intensity has been there, the heart and the good elements throughout - it's just literally the finishing, the conclusion to a play we've lacked. The defense, the work at the breakdown, the scrum, the mauls, lineouts, keeping the ball (territory, possession), and discipline too.

So I'll say the Boks win by a thin margin, because the attack will be around the same point for France and the Boks know who they are too well by now.
France seriously just needed a little more time, as in bad faith as it sounds. But...maybe they'll *click*.

 

[ZeFrenchy]

This is the game this internationals will be evaluated for. The two previous ones has te expected result with the usual french detail (losing playing well, winning playing bad). Though winning this one won't mean we'll have a good 6N (cf. last year).
The last time we played the Boks in France was 4 years ago in Toulouse, in a game that is quite forgotten despite how good it was. I suppose it has to be with South Africa having awful results after an awesome Lions series, and Matt Giteau's failed conversion making everything else be forgotten. Ithink it is one the most physical games I've seen from the french in a few years, and it was the game that made Servat move from being "one of the best" to "the best". Also, it is quite disappointing to see what Barcella, Dupuy, Marty and others became after that.

As for the starting sides, I think Big Yoewis 91 is pretty much on the money. I don't think Guitoune will start, and probably we'll see Fritz back on the side. Szarsewski's set pieces were flawless against Tonga, so we may see him start, and I don't know if Domingo and Picamoles will go back straight to the run-on side. Flanquart will surely come off from the bench. An important question is who will be the reserve scrum-half - Pélissié or Doussain? Or will they use Doussain as a 10 cover (anyway, neither him nor Fred play 10 for their clubs)?

In the backrow, I don't think PSA will keep Leroux. He always keeps 16 forwards so he can train with two full packs, and this time he kept 3 locks and 7 backrowers. I think he kept Leroux only so he could cover lock at the training sessions. Claassen seems to be behind Chouly in PSA's mind and I don't see the point of calling Picamoles back if it isn't for him to be in the 23, so I think Claassen will be dropped too. And then it will be one of Lauret or Nyanga to go. It would be harsh to drop Lauret after the game he played against the ABs, which leaves Lauret, Chouly, Dusautoir and Picamoles, of which I think only ***i is a sure starter.

 

[Big Ewis]

As for the starting sides, I think Big Yoewis 91 is pretty much on the money.

HEY !!! What's goin on here ?!!

And yes you're right, the bench will be at debate surely...
* I say Doussain, not Pélissié.
* If Lauret isn't selected, you're right, it would be both unfair and a crap move too because we need physical, fetching, carrying power players in the loose against a side like S.A. And again, if he plays this one well too, he'll possibly be a lock for the XV de France for a while. He's exactly what we've been lacking in France, a flanker with a knack for fetching balls and carrying. Perfect if he turns out to be the player we saw against the All-Blacks consistently.
* I don't like Claassen, he's good but he's not XV de France good. And we've got good options in the loose, in fact his countryman "Springcock" B. Le Roux is better, imo. Plus his full name is French so... kidding.
* yes, Szar is the one guy I was hesitant about in my starting XV. In deed. But I think Kayser is ready for a match like this by now. He's been perfectly 'standard', hasn't he ? Not great, not bad. No specific criticism, nothing particular to praise.
* Haven't seen Lopez since that one test last summer in a Bleus jersey...Michalak did look good in those last 15 in le Havre. Maybe he's decided to play some good, accurate Rugby again.

On a side note, I'm glad Ducalcon has been dropped this Tour from the 30. Slimani has shown some quality, both on the field and in terms of mentality.

 

[Draggs]

Frik Kirsten and Jano Vermaak called up.
Wonder if Vermaak will jump Screuder in the queue, likewise Kirsten and Adriaanse.

 

[Big Ewis]

Two Boks stats from TRC as a whole:
almost no lost ball in rucks (95%) and all scrums won. Of course they played ARG both times to open the tournament, at a time when the Pumas hadn't 'found their scrum yet', so to speak.

This trip to the French capital will be a real test for their tight 5, as France are at full strength with the possibility of Thomas Domingo not being 100% on form and possibly not even starting. We'll see.

 

[racingmetro92]

Do Willie Le Roux have a familiar link with Bernard Le Roux ?
I know that Willie played with the Racing-Metro academy, so ...

 

[Big Ewis]

Do Willie Le Roux have a familiar link with Bernard Le Roux ?
I know that Willie played with the Racing-Metro academy, so ...

yes, they have sensual massage parties every weekend when they're both in town. It's a very strong relationship that's been going on for a long time.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Frik Kirsten and Jano Vermaak called up.
Wonder if Vermaak will jump Screuder in the queue, likewise Kirsten and Adriaanse.

I think Schreuder is only there as a long term project and tag-along. I would expect Vermaak who has had time with the squad earlier to slot in on the bench. WRT Kirsten I can't see him jump Adriaanse who has been on the firnges of the Bok squad.

Do Willie Le Roux have a familiar link with Bernard Le Roux ?
I know that Willie played with the Racing-Metro academy, so ...

I did not know Willie had time with the Racing academy, interesting. If they are related I wouldn't know. Le Roux and Roux are very very common last names in the Cape area in particular. That said they are in all likelihood related even if 10 generation apart LOL, that's just how it works in SA with our relative recent colonial past. And its not uncommon for families to have multiple guys playing rugby here. I can neither confirm or deny Big E's claims about sensual massage parties. I would however not mind if they managed to create a love child in a test tube with Bernard's physique and Willie's skillsets and intuition for the game.

 

[Gena_ZA]

Hereby hoping Ruan Pienaar will produce one of his masterpieces as reported to happen often in European club rugby as we are yet to see anything close to mediocre for the Boks

 

[Big Ewis]

An interesting fact:
the Springbox have not lost a test match on European soil since 1994........No I'm kidding, but this is still an impressive feat, the haven't lost one since 2010, surely many remember this, when they fell to Scotland.
In retrospect, they're currently on a streak of ENG 2010, *RWC 2011*, IRE 2012, SCO 2012, ENG 2012, WAL 2013, SCO 2013 - so that's 6 consecutive wins.
They only won by an avg. of 4 points in those 3 tests in 2012, but 19pts so far this year while conceding no try.

Other than that, Bok fans should be interested to know, even though it won't come as the surprise of the decade, that in French circles the main concern is the "physical density" SA will bring and the problems this will pose.
Some fans feel like even with Picamoles back (not even certain to start) SA have 2 or 3 guys just like him.
I'd like to display the following attributes of some Springboks:
- Jaque Fourie: center, 190cm, 105kg
- Jean de Villiers: center, 190cm, 103kg
- JP Pietersen: winger, 190cm, 96kg
- Duane Vermeulen: loose forward, 193cm, 116kg
- Willem Alberts: loose forward, 192cm, 120kg
- Francois Louw: loose forward, 188cm, 112kg

With the locks and tight 3 above average in weight as well.

I'll repeat this simple formula for France - simple as a directive, but very difficult to achieve on the field for 80minutes:
* contain the Boks forwards: bother them at the breakdown, furious in the rucks, use every iota of energy, bully them in the scrum, play the lineouts well (we haven't been amazing, the Boks have).
* finish off some of the plays: we've done excellent work to get in position to score, everything that can possibly lead to that, we've done; our backs are going to make the difference and win or lose the game for us, if they can finish off the plays with good technical control and healthy chemistry.

The constants for France this year:
- the scrum
- the defense
- the mauls
- defenders beaten

We *MUST* capitalize on all those qualities that are there every - single - match most sides would have trouble generating with consistency. If we don't, we'll simply lose the match and this whole Tour will be called a failure, as forwards coach Yannick Bru says.

 

[Gena_ZA]

"* contain the All Black forwards: bother them at the breakdown, furious in the rucks, use every iota of energy, bully them in the scrum, play the lineouts well.
* finish off some of the plays: we've done excellent work to get in position to score, everything that can possibly lead to that, we've done; our backs are going to make the difference and win or lose the game for us, if they can finish off the plays with good technical control and healthy chemistry."

Close to what we tried with the All Blacks but the overall class of the No 1 team in the world came through.
If all equal the French should get the same from the Boks come Saturday

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I think SA has only been a poor side 3 times in the 50 years;

- leading up to 1994 after coming back from isolation we were behind
- around 2002 we were just a poor side and struggling with off field issues
- 2010 was a step too far away from 2007 from which point we didn't develop and actually narrowed our game more and more but not in a good way under a coach that was a political appointment and who now can't hold down a coaching job with a university side despite test rugby on his CV.

So HM has had to rebuild the team (game wise just as much if not more than personnel wise) even if he has the use of many of our quality players that were at their prime ITO age if not game ironically in the PdV era. SO I think your statement that SA is improving is valid even if we've lost a lot of quality players or have star players approaching their 'use by' date. As for the size of the squad, well, all test sides have an upward curve, we just have retained our traditional edge in this department if you ask me. Remember there is Frans Steyn on his way back; centre (Natal), 1.91m, 111kg

And we'll probably keep coming with the big guys if you look at the size of some young guys that are coming through;

Paul Willemse; lock (Bulls), 2.00m, 130kg
Frans Malherbe; prop (WP), 1.94m, 124kg
Jacques du Plessis; flanker (Bulls), 2,01m, 119kg
Damian de Allende; wing/center (WP), 1.92m, 103kg

 

[Gena_ZA]

and Cheslin Kolbe - 1.69m, 79kg - catch him if you can

 

[Bradsa]

Hi there, new to the forum but here's my 5c worth.

I feel the Bokke haven't hit their straps so far this tour when it comes to 80 minutes of domination.

Wales were strong but with all due respect I never got the feeling we would lose it (even without the final offside try). No tries conceded and nothing really threatening our try line being the only reason for that.

Against Scotland we pretty much went into "defensive" or "go through the motions" mode after all but wrapping up the game in the first half.

France will be the big test now. No disrespect to Scotland or Wales but this is the one I worried about when I saw the EOYT schedule. France are due a win with those players.

The boks should triumph, but only if we play our game for the full 80. Against France even a 14 point lead isn't comfortable.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

and Cheslin Kolbe - 1.69m, 79kg - catch him if you can

Much as I love Kolbe I would cringe if he were selected to play for the Bok side. In the CC final where there was limited opportunity it was very painfully clear that small players like Kolbe and Aplon just aren't as effective (too easy to turn possession over when under pressure and cant make the 'hard yards' ball in hand) and test rugby against top 10 sides is at least at the same level and higher when you take the top 6. Willie and Habana are even more skilled and bigger to boot, and I'd go for size for the 3rd back player like either JPP or De Allende/Engelbrecht at wing for me

Hi there, new to the forum but here's my 5c worth.

I feel the Bokke haven't hit their straps so far this tour when it comes to 80 minutes of domination.

Wales were strong but with all due respect I never got the feeling we would lose it (even without the final offside try). No tries conceded and nothing really threatening our try line being the only reason for that.

Against Scotland we pretty much went into "defensive" or "go through the motions" mode after all but wrapping up the game in the first half.

France will be the big test now. No disrespect to Scotland or Wales but this is the one I worried about when I saw the EOYT schedule. France are due a win with those players.

The boks should triumph, but only if we play our game for the full 80. Against France even a 14 point lead isn't comfortable.

Certainly. I agree on all points; France will be the sterner challenge and we havn't played for 80 minutes bar the test against NZ in Jo'Burg (despite losing). That test though we have to qualify as we were forced to win with 4 tries because of the BS in the Eden Park game so I see that one as a bit of an oddity.

And welcome to the forum, BTW!!

 

[TRF_heineken]

The constants for France this year:
- the scrum
- the defense
- the mauls
- defenders beaten

You know... Those are the same constants for the Boks?? Especially in the last few games

 

[Big Ewis]

Close to what we tried with the All Blacks but the overall class of the No 1 team in the world came through.
If all equal the French should get the same from the Boks come Saturday

Are you saying the French if they manage all these points would still lose ? If so I disagree completely, but I'm not sure but it really looks like that's what you're saying.

oh and *an important condition: France need to make sure they somehow disallow formation or good progression of the Saffa mauls !..

And man, before I actually checked the stats I didn't know South Africa were THAT big. They've always been about brute force, but this is turning on the ridiculous.
It looks like the perfect formula for Rugby: all gigantic players, even the backs, with European-type knowledge of scrummaging not just aimless mass like other sides, and powering through defenses. I've been criticizing S.A. a lot to this point because of their lack of constructed attacking, but in all relative hindsight of those stats I feel more reluctant to. I still think that's the one thing they really need, not like NZ level but some inspired, creative combinations which I've seen they've been lacking.

I'd like to give S.A. my complete congratulations and respect, but they haven't quite acquired virtual invulnerability yet for me the way NZ have. Sure they can lose, but what NZ has managed is beyond laudable. It really is.
I understand 28-0 in MF is a great result, but Scotland were right there many times, they just lacked the finishing that could have made this result quite considerably less one-sided. And considering the rather narrow result in Wales despite the latter's gradual decomposition, again S.A. look very powerful but not unstoppable.

I think S.A. have a huge chance of winning the 2015 RWC. They've progressed a lot in one year, but that's also due to players returning. I think they'll improve more for sure in the meantime right before the Cup, and I think that even if they won't achieve that quasi-God mode, they'll be too sound to be rolled over.
Contrary to the AB's, there's no need for clinical precision, velvet passing combinations or meticulous handling - weight and power merely need oil to work, and that oil will be the organic electricity of pride and enthusiasm they'll have come RWC time, as always. The Boks basically just need physical freshness, their gameplan is too simple to fail unless they bump into a side one day that decides it's putting its foot down.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

You know... Those are the same constants for the Boks?? Especially in the last few games

True. I'd even say we have the drop on France ITO defense, maul and I'd add line-out. I give France the benefit at scrum while I call a tie for defenders beaten. I am worried about the scrum a little though; France are a step up from what we've faced in the scrum so far and we have lost our two best tight heads ITO the scrum even if Coenie is a dynamo in the loose. France also has the benefit in X-factor; that set of passes resulting in a try that should not have been. I'd have called it almost even but for FdP not being available and JF off form seemingly with Le Roux on the bench if the talk is to be believed.