[2018 November Tests] Ireland vs New Zealand (17/11/18)

[Bada-Bing!]

Just did up my predictions based off the fixtures and pools for the RWC. South Africa, if they are runner up to NZ, will face Ireland in the Semi finals.

England will knock out Australia.
New Zealand will knock out the home side.

It's all set for an Ireland v NZ final.

How did you work that one out? If Ireland finish top of Pool A they play the runners up in Pool B, which if it is SA, it would mean they meet in the quarter finals. If Ireland were to some how finish runners up in their pool and so did the Boks in their pool, then they could only meet in the final, as they would be on opposite sides of the draw. Ditto if they both win their pools.

 

[Bean]

How did you work that one out? If Ireland finish top of Pool A they play the runners up in Pool B, which if it is SA, it would mean they meet in the quarter finals. If Ireland were to some how finish runners up in their pool and so did the Boks in their pool, then they could only meet in the final, as they would be on opposite sides of the draw. Ditto if they both win their pools.

Well, it's very complex and I wouldn't want to bore you with the details.


Nah, I messed up. I meant to say quarters instead of semi's.

 

[Paulo]

This i'm surprised hasn't been mentioned more, i thought Whitelock looked shattered, for a fair chunk of the game i was watching him and he was just flopping onto rucks or just dragging people to the ground in tackles rather than a hit and drive. i'm a believer that a game can be won and lost in the tight and not having that pressure was a big loss

I think we have been trying to not make excuses. I certainly have. The problem with EOYT is that they always come at the end of a tough year of footy. It's unavoidable. Yes, our boys looked tired, especially where we needed them to have full tanks (Whitelock/Retallick/Read). But at the end of the day, Ireland still had to do the job, which they did. I said before the ABs were still #1, until Ireland can come down and do it in NZ, which they have yet to do (ever). Sadly I have no idea when that might be. Until we get a global season this fatigue factor when North plays South is always an element.

 

[Paulo]

This i'm surprised hasn't been mentioned more, i thought Whitelock looked shattered, for a fair chunk of the game i was watching him and he was just flopping onto rucks or just dragging people to the ground in tackles rather than a hit and drive. i'm a believer that a game can be won and lost in the tight and not having that pressure was a big loss

I think we have been trying to not make excuses. I certainly have. The problem with EOYT is that they always come at the end of a tough year of footy. It's unavoidable. Yes, our boys looked tired, especially where we needed them to have full tanks (Whitelock/Retallick/Read). But at the end of the day, Ireland still had to do the job, which they did. I said before the ABs were still #1, until Ireland can come down and do it in NZ, which they have yet to do (ever). Sadly I have no idea when that might be. Until we get a global season this fatigue factor when North plays South is always an element.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think you are being a bit too optimistic, and to be completely honest, it's kind of a "thing" with the irish. Phrases like "the best generation" (2007) and "back to back champions" (2015) come to mind. Every year before a world cup (or thereabouts) your team does well and your countrymen's expectations explode.
It's quite amazing because in my experience the irish tend to be incredibly self-critical with anything and everything, except when it comes to rugby and world cups.

If you have a tiny bit below average day and England/France/Scotland/Wales has an above average game, they can beat you. It's not a stretch.

You think I'm being to optimistic thinking that Ireland can reach a semi final? This is the 2nd ranked team in the world, the best team in 2018, the only team who don't have a losing record against another nation in this RWC cycle and a team who just beat NZ without a player that we've continuously been told we need to win any big game. If you were to ignore world cup history you'd no one would bat an eyelid if you said they'd win.

Even when considering past world cups this feels different, in some cases our current back ups are better than, or as good as our starters at the last RWC and I think Heaslip and O'Connell are the only guys who'd walk straight into the current team. We also have experienced unprecedented success in this cycle and there's no year in it where we've been absolutely tragic like 2005, 2010 and 2012. Add to that that I would dispute the claim that Ireland peaked too early in 2011 and 2015 and I really don't see how we could possibly be going to the next tournament and somehow be satisfied with a QF exit, we're better than 18 teams in the competition and can beat the remainder. Of course if we play badly we can lose but you have to go back to the 6n on 2017 to see examples of that.

 

[Amiga500]

Agree Cronin will be safe as he offers alot of difference in the 16 shirt. He will never be a starter for Ireland though.

I wouldn't say that.

If he can't throw in to a lineout on "their" 5m line, then its no use having the gas of an outside centre 'cos the ball will already have been turned over.

If Scannell can have a great run from now to the 6N and get a look in, he could easily be in the 16 jersey. Maybe even 2 if RB's decline gathers pace.


But the line out problems need serious work. Munster probably need to let Beirne start calling their lineout for him to force the issue on Henderson though.

[In fact, I wonder will Joe have a word with Leo and we see James Ryan doing the calling in D4 for a few months.]

 

[MikeTheNative]

Even regardless of the route they have to take, you would expect the 2nd ranked team to target winning it. Is this current Ireland team good enough to win? I would say so, this current crop of players have beaten all the top teams and have no one to fear. They proved that they can win without Murray, next question is can they do it without Sexton?

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

I wouldn't say that.

If he can't throw in to a lineout on "their" 5m line, then its no use having the gas of an outside centre 'cos the ball will already have been turned over.

If Scannell can have a great run from now to the 6N and get a look in, he could easily be in the 16 jersey. Maybe even 2 if RB's decline gathers pace.


But the line out problems need serious work. Munster probably need to let Beirne start calling their lineout for him to force the issue on Henderson though.

[In fact, I wonder will Joe have a word with Leo and we see James Ryan doing the calling in D4 for a few months.]

The thing I've never understood is why people always think that it should be the hooker with unreliable lineouts who goes on the bench. Surely it's better to start them, then if the lineouts are going wrong you can hook them and bring on a reliable thrower than to bring on the unreliable guy at 50 mins and be stuck with him for the rest of the game if he's having a bad day.

 

[ncurd]

Even regardless of the route they have to take, you would expect the 2nd ranked team to target winning it. Is this current Ireland team good enough to win? I would say so, this current crop of players have beaten all the top teams and have no one to fear. They proved that they can win without Murray, next question is can they do it without Sexton?

I think the same can be said of most nations, England are probably the only nation who's number 2 and even 3 are not a massive climb down from their first choice fly-half.

Any team looking at winning the RWC is going to need their top players playing. they might be able to do without one or two so expect Ireland to manage without Sexton without Sexton and Murray they begin to struggle and so would any nation.

 

[Amiga500]

The thing I've never understood is why people always think that it should be the hooker with unreliable lineouts who goes on the bench. Surely it's better to start them, then if the lineouts are going wrong you can hook them and bring on a reliable thrower than to bring on the unreliable guy at 50 mins and be stuck with him for the rest of the game if he's having a bad day.

If the unreliable sub was having a bad day, and goes down with "injury", does the starter get dispensation to come on so it doesn't go to uncontested scrums?

[Just a thought experiment, nothing more.]


Anyhoo - regarding this particular discussion - I don't understand the lesser importance people put on the set piece when considering Sean Cronin's impact.

A lineout lost can be a game won or lost. Being 2 seconds quicker over 30 metres doesn't make up for that.

 

[ncurd]

A lineout lost can be a game won or lost. Being 2 seconds quicker over 30 metres doesn't make up for that.

See Eng V NZ

 

[Leinster Fan]

The thing I've never understood is why people always think that it should be the hooker with unreliable lineouts who goes on the bench. Surely it's better to start them, then if the lineouts are going wrong you can hook them and bring on a reliable thrower than to bring on the unreliable guy at 50 mins and be stuck with him for the rest of the game if he's having a bad day.

We don't really have a 'reliable' hooker. Scannell is the best of them but he's had his bad days as well. Leinster's lineout was more or less perfect last year with Cronin throwing and to be honest I think his reputation for bad throwing is somewhat undeserved. He can mess up a few if things are going badly but he's a better thrower than Best and not far off throwing wise than any hooker Ireland have had in years of you take out Flannery who was a great thrower.

Joe Schmidt has consistently picked Cronin at 16 for more or less his entire time in Ireland, first at Leinster and then at Ireland. Hard to see why Schmidt would get rid of a guy who he's always picked just as he starts playing as well as ever, starting for his club for the first time in his career, and not looking out of place in the best team in Europe week in week out. Scannell's relative inexperience at international level makes him just as much of a risk I think.

Out of curiosity, who calls the Munster lineouts? Hate to say it but Henderson needs to massively improve in that area (Ulster's lineout is terrible as well), Toner is the best but it would be nice to see James Ryan getting some experience of it for Leinster.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

You think I'm being to optimistic thinking that Ireland can reach a semi final?

Considering that to get to that semi-final you would need to beat either South Africa or New Zealand in QFs, yes, i do consider you are being too optimistic.
You can do it, course, but given your history, i'd be more conservative.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I think the same can be said of most nations, England are probably the only nation who's number 2 and even 3 are not a massive climb down from their first choice fly-half.

Any team looking at winning the RWC is going to need their top players playing. they might be able to do without one or two so expect Ireland to manage without Sexton without Sexton and Murray they begin to struggle and so would any nation.

In the backs we need three of Murray, Sexton, Ringrose and Kearney to beat NZ and then one of the half backs and one of the other two to beat the next tier (SA and Eng) and we could probably beat anyone else with just one in Dublin or a neutral venue.

Depth in the forwards is great but I wouldn't want to be missing Furlong, POM and Ryan at the same time.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Considering that to get to that semi-final you would need to beat either South Africa or New Zealand in QFs, yes, i do consider you are being too optimistic.
You can do it, course, but given your history, i'd be more conservative.

Ok, I have to disagree. We'll more than likely play SA in the QF and we should expect to beat them with a reasonably full strength side.

 

[KerryRed]

Out of curiosity, who calls the Munster lineouts?

Think it's POM/Holland. Used to be D.Ryan.

 

[Amiga500]

Just thinking.... who else would love to see Leinster vs. Crusaders?

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Luke McGrath made 10 tackles in 20 minutes. That's half of what James Ryan made, outrageous.

 

[mania]

I saw enough corruption to shock even Trump!

dont get me started cooky. else i'll be complaining all week about it

sorry i digress. back to this thread

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I knew you were Samoan mania, and I knew you wouldn't be offended... because you're a bloody realist mate.

RANT WARNING
Most of the NH types on this forum who pontificate upon how the Pacific Islands are so down trodden and taken advantage of, have probably never set foot outside their own country and certainly will have never been to Samoa or Tonga or any of the Pacific Islands themselves. I have, numerous times, sometimes just for holidays, but enough times for the rather unpleasant business of disaster relief when I was in the military. I saw enough corruption to shock even Trump!

Ignoring the primary point of this post, do you really think most NH posters haven't left their own country or is that just for effect because its definitely wrong? You're talking about Europeans for the most part, we can get to about 40 different countries in a matter of hours for <500 quid if you're smart about it.