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[2016 RBS Six Nations] Round 4: England vs. Wales (12/03/2016)

Whilst England's discipline has been poor I'd be interested to see a pitch match of where they were conceeded in the Ireland match and when.

Sexton kicked only 1 penalty (which he made) out the 12 we conceeded. Which suggests we've been 'intelligent' about it it happy to conceed in the oppositions half but a lot more focused in our own.

A factor is Wales drew with Ireland whilst we comfortably beat them. I know Wales usually start off badly but it does suggest England are in a better posistion.


Honestly I don't think discipline will decide this one but the simple fact will England contain Wales like they did in Cardiff in 12 months ago. Wales have a simple gameplan and have proven time and again they really don't have answer for when it gets shut out there is no Plan B. Other teams you see trying things when Pan A doesn't work even if it likely leads to them still loosing.

On the whole bench front I really wouldn't be banking on England tired legs, Cole a prop has played all but 10 minuites so far. This team is fit and has a forward packed bench, our one try conceed is testimate to that.



I really think with home advantage it's England's to loose we'll have bottle it like the world cup not to come out on top.

OR it means we are not actually being intelligent and are simply giving away lots of penalties when we are attacking due to forward passes, obstructions and holding on. I don't think repeatedly ruining attacking platforms by giving away penalties is really any more intelligent than giving them away in kicking distance of your own goal.
 
Bravery or madness?

For me this all comes down to how mental / brave Eddie decides to be. We were given the clearest demonstration of what happens if you play George Ford and Farrell against Faletau and Roberts not 5 months ago. Since then George Ford's tackling has unbelievably got worse. He's now sub O'Gara levels of effectiveness. He does however still retain the kicking and distributing skills that make him a handful going the other way.

In my mind this is going to a smashy affair with physicality at a premium. Whilst I wish it wasn't so, I watched the Irish and Welsh just smash each other up over 80 minutes. I watched the Welsh smash the French again for 80 minutes. I find it highly unlikely that a free flowing expansive Wales will rock up at HQ.

Whilst I wouldn't suggest a return of Farrell, Barritt, Burgess there's no way I'd have Ford at 10. Also if Manu looks 3/4 fit I'd play him with JJ or Daly outside. I'd leave the back 3 alone and the pack will be good enough regardless of which no.7 Jones decides not to play.

I reckon a very tight affair no more than a score either way being the difference.

I'm pretty nervous to be honest.
 
Wales have better half backs and centres, so did Ireland when they played England, where I think Wales take this is that the have a hell of a lot more effective ball carriers than Ireland and a couple serious threats in the back three. Ireland cut England open a few times, having more linebreaks than any game in recent memory, and Wales will try to as well but will likely have more of a killer instinct if they do.

This is one is a step to far for Engaland I think. 30-19 to Wales.
 
I think this game I'd rather have Daly start and JJ as a possible sub mostly because I want another long range kicking option, if we can keep Wales pinned back, they should have a hard time as they never attack from deep.

Also Alpha 2 of those line breaks were blatant obstructions that were ignored and most came when England were down to 14 men. If anything it's terrible if a team don't make breaks when against 14 defenders.
 
If anything it's terrible if a team don't make breaks when against 14 defenders.
It was Ireland...

I wouldn't say blatant obstructions either, running a dummy line for a loop play is a pretty grey area of the law, most refs let it slide as long as the player doesn't change his course to take someone out. (If we're thinking of the same linebreaks) It also doesn't mean it's an area Wales won't exploit and exploit well either, as long as it's drilled into Biggar anyway, he won't notice it on his own.
 
I can't see a reason for England playing ford and Farrell again, surely if we always target the fly half then playing two fly halves at the same time is mental, yes some defenders can help out he 10 but helping out the 10 and 12 seems a stretch, although Farrell is by no means shirty about tackling he still won't be able to stop multiple big runners and cover ford
 
I really think with home advantage it's England's to loose we'll have bottle it like the world cup not to come out on top.

I hope so. I really do.

My feeling is England aren't that great and neither are Wales. But we're at home, so fingers crossed. As others have said, that England bench is pretty damn serious, and it might all come down to that. Set piece has been solid without being brilliant from England, the lineout could be an interesting battleground - especially if Itoje starts again.

Wales are going to have to find a way of shutting Billy down because he has been absolutely murdering defences so far - if they don't it could be a seriously long night. On the other hand, if England are as wasteful with that dominance as they were first half against Ireland then it'll all come to nowt.

Looking at Wales, I am utterly perplexed by Cuthbert's recall. I didn't see the France game, maybe he's miraculously become brilliant, but I seriously doubt it. I honestly think he's the worst regular international for a Tier 1 nation I've ever seen. What does Gatland see in him?!
 
A factor is Wales drew with Ireland whilst we comfortably beat them. I know Wales usually start off badly but it does suggest England are in a better posistion.

6 Nations games don't always work like that these days! The importance of the individual match ups has a habit of rendering the results vs other teams a little bit irrelevant. Of course not ruling out form, as England do (rightly) go into this one as slight favorites, but still not always the best pre match indicator.

Take last year - England beat Wales, Ireland beat England, Wales beat Ireland. Anything can happen!


Wales have a simple gameplan and have proven time and again they really don't have answer for when it gets shut out there is no Plan B. Other teams you see trying things when Pan A doesn't work even if it likely leads to them still loosing.

This is the biggest worry going into most big games as a Welsh fan. That Wales vs England 6N match last year shows what happens when we don't bring an effective plan B after a team shuts down our plan A.

For me, Wales simply can't expect to go to Twickenham and beat England with the same game plan as we played against France. England's back 3 are an excellent unit, and kicking that much ball to them would be suicide.

We are apparently trying play a more "expansive" game, but nto seen it so far... This match is easily the biggest test in that department.

On the flip side, our "carry it straight up the middle" style could be effective with Roberts running at the Ford / Farrell channel off a set play - especially if the forwards are tied up somewhere else.

On the whole bench front I really wouldn't be banking on England tired legs, Cole a prop has played all but 10 minuites so far. This team is fit and has a forward packed bench, our one try conceed is testimate to that.

Don't think anyone's saying that England are gonna be completely out on their feet come the 60 - 70 min mark, very few international teams are these days!

However, someone like Webb is a handful to contain straight from the first minute, let alone when you've had an hour or so of hard play in your legs! Same goes for the likes of Care coming on off the bench too.

Looking at Wales, I am utterly perplexed by Cuthbert's recall. I didn't see the France game, maybe he's miraculously become brilliant, but I seriously doubt it. I honestly think he's the worst regular international for a Tier 1 nation I've ever seen. What does Gatland see in him?!


Gatland obviously sees something in Cuthbert that no-one else does... He didn't do anything wrong against France, but that's probably due to him not really doing anything at all during the game!


I mean Wales barely bothered passing the ball to the wings against France, but you'd think he'd have a point to prove after being dropped and go looking for work!
 
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Wales have better half-backs and inside centre, england the better back 3...

Unfortunately, I think Wales' strengths are in more important positions and that this gives them advantage.
 
Gatland obviously sees something in Cuthbert that no-one else does... He didn't do anything wrong against France, but that's probably due to him not really doing anything at all during the game!

To be fair he usually does at least 1 or 2 things wrong as part of a normal game, so that constitutes a good day for him!
 
Wales have better half-backs and inside centre, england the better back 3...

Unfortunately, I think Wales' strengths are in more important positions and that this gives them advantage.

Blimey, England haven't even picked their side yet.
Where are these 'more important positions' you're on about?
 
Wales have better half-backs and inside centre, england the better back 3...

Unfortunately, I think Wales' strengths are in more important positions and that this gives them advantage.

I think you've forgotten a few quite important positions like 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8!
 
I'll give you 7, 9, 10 & 12 but 13 & 15 quite simply no!
Fair enough, it's all our pointless opinions! JD is a far better 13 than JJ, I never really got the hype with him and I think Liam Williams is the best full back in the northern hemisphere at the moment, he's really grown up in 18 months.
 
Getting excited for this one early. Wales have a very settled and confident side built around some outstanding players. Still some areas of weakness/false strength.

England are growing as a team, have a supremely powerful pack right now and some real pace and precision in the backs.

Some intriguing potential matchups like faletau v vunipola, north v watson, youngs v davies, jones v itoje not to mention tuilagi v roberts.

I feel wales shade it overall but a lot relies on the pack getting at least parity on the gainline and set piece. Wales lineout is not traditionally a strength and who knows about the scrums - depends if cole gets away with his usual antics or not...

If wales do alright in these facets then i think their superior kick chase and power in the backs will see them gain more yards and win more kickable pens. Let england have the ball in dangerous areas and we'll score tries (unless we see a repeat of the 1st half v ireland...)

I picked wales at the start of the championship and even though england have improved faster than i expected I'm sticking with wales by less than a try.
 
I think he has 13 right, Davies is a superb 13. 15 is debatable because Browns nowhere near his best.
Agree on jd2 he's superb, as is Roberts imo.

I do think both G Davies and Biggar are a bit overrated though. Biggar suits gatlands plan but i think he struggles to fire a backline.

And I'd take brown over williams as Williams looks a bit injured. Fully fit and in form there's not much to choose..
 
I think he has 13 right, Davies is a superb 13. 15 is debatable because Browns nowhere near his best.

i agree about jon davies, 15 brown might not near his best but neither is liam williams so id say they are pretty even at the moment, havnt done much wrong but not really set the pitch ablaze either, will be a fascinating duel though this weekend

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Agree on jd2 he's superb, as is Roberts imo.

I do think both G Davies and Biggar are a bit overrated though. Biggar suits gatlands plan but i think he struggles to fire a backline.

And I'd take brown over williams as Williams looks a bit injured. Fully fit and in form there's not much to choose..

havnt thought this for a while but im excited for when priestland and anscombe come on, priestland really got the backs moving for bath on the weekend and was showing a lot of confidence.
 
I disagree with Biggar not being able to move a backline. He might not have the pace to attack the game line like Priestland, but his distribution is outstanding. His passing game is superior to Priestland's imo, with far far superior decision making boot.

I still wish we had one of Anscombe / Priestland on the bench, with someone a bit different or more exciting alongside them.
 
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