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A Political Thread pt. 2

Kiwiwomble said:
in fairness, the BBC did pretty much the same thing with the Aussie PM

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Both new leaders.

I must say I didn't and wouldn't recognise Albanese if I saw him on tv.

Liz Truss just isn't and won't be a popular UK PM IMO and I doubt she will stand out as a great leader on the world stage. So her not getting recognised by Australian news commentators wasn't a surprise.
 


IF this is right, then it looks like Ukraine is using the newly qualified troops to mop up and secure the newly liberated areas around Kharkiv; and moving the frontline troops to the area between Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk (with a week and counting, of R&R).

I'm not convinced though, especially given the assaults on pretty much everywhere from Oskil to Bilohorivka (about 50 miles), and the amount of territory they could gain if/when they get in behind Lyman and Zarichne/Torske. Not to mention the developing beachhead in East Kupyansk.


To me, the most likely is that the movement of troops is genuine, but "just" troop rotation; but it could be a feint to suck Russian troops into the area, opening up gaps elsewhere in the line, and it's perfectly possible that it's real, and signals an intended new offensive - either with newly trained / released troops, or possibly even the frontline troops from the Kharkiv offensive, meaning that the current NE offensive is being successfully carried out by the newer troops.
 
Which Tyler said:


IF this is right, then it looks like Ukraine is using the newly qualified troops to mop up and secure the newly liberated areas around Kharkiv; and moving the frontline troops to the area between Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk (with a week and counting, of R&R).

I'm not convinced though, especially given the assaults on pretty much everywhere from Oskil to Bilohorivka (about 50 miles), and the amount of territory they could gain if/when they get in behind Lyman and Zarichne/Torske. Not to mention the developing beachhead in East Kupyansk.


To me, the most likely is that the movement of troops is genuine, but "just" troop rotation; but it could be a feint to suck Russian troops into the area, opening up gaps elsewhere in the line, and it's perfectly possible that it's real, and signals an intended new offensive - either with newly trained / released troops, or possibly even the frontline troops from the Kharkiv offensive, meaning that the current NE offensive is being successfully carried out by the newer troops.
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The Ukrainian forces ability to move and confuse has been top draw. To be honest it's become a bit pointless to try and guess what they are doing until they have actually done it. Glad I'm not a Russian squaddie
 
Tallshort said:
The Ukrainian forces ability to move and confuse has been top draw. To be honest it's become a bit pointless to try and guess what they are doing until they have actually done it.
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Absolutely fair; they've had brilliant control of the messaging right down to the squaddies, and even the partisans.

Tallshort said:
Glad I'm not a Russian squaddie
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I suspect there may possibly be reasons beyond trying to guess what the Ukrainian army are doing....
 
The Ukraine situation is really fluid on the ground and politically. Russia hasn't secured defensive positions in the north east and lost that town where they infamously lost 70 vehicles trying to do a pigheaded river crossing. All those deaths for nothing and more lost territory for them in the northeast seems inevitable.

But Russia reclaimed a town in Kherson when Ukraine was partially cut off by the floodwater from the blown up dam and continues to crawl forward in Donetsk. Plus they seem close to a potentially permanent repair of a river crossing at a dam at Kherson (by filling the river with rubble). So that will help them either keep Kherson or shift to defending core areas (Donbas and Crimea).

The big developments to me are Germany and the US this week are more hawkish and have publicly made statements that any peace deal requires a return to pre-2014 borders. This is the first time either nation has targeted the complete removal of Russian forces. Plus it's clear Germnay and the EU have completely moved on from ever purchasing large amounts of Russian energy. German gas reserves are at near 100% and a long term plan seems to be a pipeline through the Pyrenees and EU developing North African gas to come in via Spain.

For the war, the prediction seems to be Russia continues occassional shelling nuclear plants, dams and power stations as a warning whilst declaring occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk part of Russia (joining Crimea). Then any attack on any of these three areas helps Putin politically to mobilise for a full scale war where his attacks on infrastructure will step up and things will get horrible for winter.

Things may develop quickly. If the front starts to move sharply again or we see Russia declare full war then I'd agree with the earlier suggestion that this will probably require it's own thread as big and potentially unpleasant developments may come thick and fast.
 
Bruce_ma gooshvili said:
The Ukraine situation is really fluid on the ground and politically. Russia hasn't secured defensive positions in the north east and lost that town where they infamously lost 70 vehicles trying to do a pigheaded river crossing. All those deaths for nothing and more lost territory for them in the northeast seems inevitable.

But Russia reclaimed a town in Kherson when Ukraine was partially cut off by the floodwater from the blown up dam and continues to crawl forward in Donetsk. Plus they seem close to a potentially permanent repair of a river crossing at a dam at Kherson (by filling the river with rubble). So that will help them either keep Kherson or shift to defending core areas (Donbas and Crimea).

The big developments to me are Germany and the US this week are more hawkish and have publicly made statements that any peace deal requires a return to pre-2014 borders. This is the first time either nation has targeted the complete removal of Russian forces. Plus it's clear Germnay and the EU have completely moved on from ever purchasing large amounts of Russian energy. German gas reserves are at near 100% and a long term plan seems to be a pipeline through the Pyrenees and EU developing North African gas to come in via Spain.

For the war, the prediction seems to be Russia continues occassional shelling nuclear plants, dams and power stations as a warning whilst declaring occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk part of Russia (joining Crimea). Then any attack on any of these three areas helps Putin politically to mobilise for a full scale war where his attacks on infrastructure will step up and things will get horrible for winter.

Things may develop quickly. If the front starts to move sharply again or we see Russia declare full war then I'd agree with the earlier suggestion that this will probably require it's own thread as big and potentially unpleasant developments may come thick and fast.
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Hard to see how Russia can mobilise for a full scale war even if they wanted to.

Back in June they deployed their training or 3rd battalions so there is no one actually there to train the conscripts.

They are almost completely out of Artillery pieces or barrels for those pieces to be more precise having warn them out in their July offensives and they have no spares.

They have for sometime now been deploying T-62 tanks from storage to the front line and they were a very ordinary tank back in the 60s which shows how critically short they are of modern tanks.

They are begging for drones of Iran and other military hardware from ....North Korea.

The Russian air force lacks modern ordnance due to sanctions and still hasn't gotten control of the air, while their black sea fleet hides behind the Crimea due to fear of Harpoon missiles.

I really cannot see the a point where Russia would have the ability for full mobilisation never mind the political consequences of such a move.
 

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