Iron Mike: I don't understand how you think Guildford has a 'one dimensional game' - he has a near complete game (but he does need to work on beating people 1-on-1), Gear is the one with a one-dimensional game!
Its pretty obvious why Gear is not selected - his work rate around the field is very poor, both in attack and defense. The AB game plan at the moment is based on a counter attacking game -as such when the opposition kicks the ball they need to get as many players back behind the ball as quickly as possible - particularly the outside backs. If you watch the game carefully you will see wingers such as Guildford, Jane, and Rococoko sprinting back to get back in support - in contrast Gear tends to slowly jog his way back. Similarly he lacks any urgency on defense - when the opposition makes a break he slowly makes his way back, rather than sprinting to help the rest of the team. He similarity lacks any urgency chasing kicks and putting pressure on the opposition.
In addition his defensive positioning is generally poor, while he is also very poor under the high ball - as putting up bombs seems to be one of South Africa's only attacking ploys at the moment it would be rather silly to put someone who can't catch bombs in the team! I'm not in anyway suggesting he is a bad player - all his faults are fixable, however the fact he's played 5-6 seasons of professional rugby and still has these glaring faults is a bit worrying. If he could greatly increase his work-rate and work on his high ball skills he would be a pretty phenomenal player, as he is undoubtedly an exceptional attacking player.
I can see why people would want to see Gear in the AB's, however in my opinion being exceptional at one aspect of the game does not necessarily outweigh being poor in all other aspects of the game! I'm not necessarily expecting anyone here to agree with me though....
Guildford brings the same skill set as Doug Howlett brought (though he's not at Howletts level yet). He still needs to work on beating players 1-on-1, but he is improving in that area (for example watch the Crusaders game versus the Brumbies where he broke a pile of tackles). He is does have a good side-step when he actually decides to bring it out, and has the pace to beat players on the outside.
I totally disagree on Gear, have you actually watched the games hes played closely? This whole business about him not being any good under the high ball is a myth! The original problem he had under the high ball
wasn't that he couldn't catch it it was that his technique was off. He was very hesitant to get up in the air to catch kicks, being 6'3 he is used to being taller than his opposite and tended to stay grounded when fielding kicks, he would catch them alright though. At international level you need to get some air under you to compete and he has changed his game as the first couple of super 14 games showed he was fielding bombs with ease. I have no idea where all of this "he can't catch" business came from because its completely untrue. The guy that kept spilling high balls was Roks and he made the team.
The flaws you have picked up on in Gears lack of urgency may well be true, but you have to put it in perspective. He plays his game like that and manages to score more tries than anyone else in the country, maybe instead of lazily jogging he is putting himself in prime position for the next play? who knows, the facts show that he scores a metric shitload more than anyone else, maybe hes got it right and everyone else has it wrong? How about giving him a go in the All Blacks to see how his game would work instead of saying "nah, he probably wouldnt be any good in there" and throwing some average 20 year old in the national team?
As for slowly jogging back in defense, i don't think i've ever seen him do that before? i know that he very often doesn't sprint at top pace when hes covering in defense, but thats not necessarily a bad thing. When wingers sprint back at top pace, thats when they are easily stepped. Look at Corey Janes try against Wales, the winger tore across the field to cover and Jane merrily skipped inside him. Gear has made countless tryscoring sideline tackles on his wing over the last 7 years at the Canes and 9 in Wellington. His defense might not be worldclass but it isnt any worse than Joes and its certainly not a "weakness"
I'm sorry but these "flaws" don't seem to me to be enough to lift a fairly unimpressive kid over an established star. To compare Guildford to Howlett doesn't make any sense, Howlett was an actual 100metre sprinter, one of the fastest kids in the entire country outside of rugby. Guildford doesn't have that kind of pace, he is fast, but he isn't
that fast, he isn't even quicker than Gear i wouldnt think. Guildford doesn't have the acceleration of Howlett or the game sense and playmaking ability that Howlett had in his ability to play fullback. Guildfords 1 on 1 game is fairly non-existant, if he catches the ball stationary with no momentum, you can put money on the fact that he wont achieve anything or break any tackles.
I'm not saying that hes a bad player, but to make the All Blacks at such a young age, you have to be a Cullen, Dagg or Spencer-like player. If you make the All Blacks at a young age by putting out an established superstar like Gear, you better be a freaking prodigy with a complete allround game and a ton of x-factor. Guildford isnt.
