Still breathing, just about. Depends how both Leinster and Toulon react, two wins are required and I'm happy the first game is in Stade Felix Mayol because if Toulon lose they'll stick one eye on the top 14 and their revenge attempt should be easier to deal with Dublin. We have the players to beat Toulon twice if they're not at 100% and we shouldn't lose out so much at scrum time and in defence with three weeks more training under the new coaching team. If we can pull that off, with spirits and form flying high, 8 points should follow against Bath and a Piatau-less Wasps, 17 points could do if all the other sides win their other home games but a BP vs Bath would probably be needed to escape. Rapid and radical change is needed but possible, unfortunately I think Leinster will be all but out after their trip to the South of France. I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing either, the side is in transition and if we look at history Leinster had a poor HEC in 2007/2008 (going out in the group of death) but a strong Magners League and a lot of playing time for new and younger faces built the core of the squad that would dominate Europe for the next four years.