[November Tests 2016 EOYT] Ireland vs. New Zealand (05/11/2016)

[The Jones Boy]

I think Smith has suffered a loss of form since his toilet issue....
Perenara has staked a strong claim and I would have let him run and taught Smith a hard lesson. Behave yourself because the production line has another to replace you if you don't want to toe the line.

 

[Makos]

I think Smith has suffered a loss of form since his toilet issue....
Perenara has staked a strong claim and I would have let him run and taught Smith a hard lesson. Behave yourself because the production line has another to replace you if you don't want to toe the line.

I'm of the same opinion.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

To be honest I'm inclined to agree, I had Murray down as my second best 9 in the world last week, that's the second time in two games he's outplayed Smith though as well as it being the best performance from a 9 I have seen in my life. It's definitely not outrageous to pick Murray in a World XV. Himself, McGrath and Henshaw are our contenders for it anyway.

I'd say Stander also has a stake in that

 

[bazwaz]

I
. Any suggestion that Aaron Smith or Beaudon Barrett be dropped is madness, both are world class players who have been key parts of an extremely good team - dropping either of them is fan-on-a-forum thinking not international coach thinking.

There is a difference between being dropped to the bench and dropped from the team...
Was it madness to drop Cruden after he has won every game he's started for at 10 for the ABs?...Some background information may be required here - Barret was brought in as a replacement for Cruden when he was injured so to suggest we revert back to a former proven to be 100% successful pivot after the other has had two poor games in a row is actually thinking quite rationally i would suggest...

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I'd say Stander also has a stake in that

At 6? Kaino is in a league of his own there. At 8? Well World Rugby would tell you that's either Billy Vunipola or Jamie Heaslip!

 

[munstermuffin]

At 6? Kaino is in a league of his own there. At 8? Well World Rugby would tell you that's either Billy Vunipola or Jamie Heaslip!

I'd disagree on 6. I think Kaino is probably best of lot on form but Stander certainly there as is POM amogst few others.
8 is basically a "what do you like in 8" thing. Both up for award yet it very realistic neither will start for Lions.
Gatland loves Toby.

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

At 6? Kaino is in a league of his own there. At 8? Well World Rugby would tell you that's either Billy Vunipola or Jamie Heaslip!

I think if you can say that Henshaw can compete for a shirt in the World XV against the likes of Crotty, SBW, ALB, Farrell, Roberts etc. Then it's reasonable to say Stander has a shot at 6/8.

 

[Every Time Ref]

There is a difference between being dropped to the bench and dropped from the team...
Was it madness to drop Cruden after he has won every game he's started for at 10 for the ABs?...Some background information may be required here - Barret was brought in as a replacement for Cruden when he was injured so to suggest we revert back to a former proven to be 100% successful pivot after the other has had two poor games in a row is actually thinking quite rationally i would suggest...

I don't know if it was, short memory! But Barrett earned his place, if you don't think he's good enough overall fair enough but talk of dropping him just due to Saturday's performance is madness

I don't set much stall by Cruden's 100% success though, he's only 1 of 15. A 90% win rate or whatever over recent years means someone is likely to have ended up with a 100% record due to law of averages.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Here's the root of the source quoted. It's flakey, but better than nothing.

https://www.sfia.org/reports/329_Rugby-Participation-Report-2015

I'm no longer a registered player, but I'll still have a game of touch with my mates and help with my nephews team, that makes me a participant.

The markets there in America for the All Blacks. People love winners and big brand sports team. Merchandise sales and everything can contribute to helping the All Blacks make revenue. We have to expand like that because of our population size. How many shirt sales and merchandise sales do you think were made at the last few Chicago matches?

The All Blacks are the biggest thing in rugby and they are always going to raise the profile of the sport when they go to America. It's just like soccer football isn't a big deal in NZ, but when Beckham came out here with the LA Galaxy years ago, people went banana's and it helped soccer footballs exposure.

61,000 is 11,000 more than what Eden Park holds as well. It's good for the NZRU and it was even better for the IRFU since they won so emphatically.

Great occasion all round.

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You guys are like sharks in here, pounce on anything.

Smith and TJ have upheld the best standard of consistent performances at 9 for a long period of time now. After a 1 off yesterday doesn't make Murray better than them. Continued performances will. I think Smiths was slightly circumstantial as well.

Wow, you link this 1.2millions figure to this SIFA website and expect peeps to pay $195 to see the breakdown of this figure in terms of age, gender and geographical location? Why don't you pay (assuming you're not a member) and post up the breakdown?

Just out of interest how many times have you been to the US and travelled round there to get a gauge of the mentality of Americans and their love of sports and the coverage of their sports out there? I am not just talking about you gauging it from these websites and NZ media coverage of how rugby is growing massively in the US.

Rugby is not just about the All Blacks and yes Americans love winners, but they mostly love American winners. The ABs will be a novelty to them, but it will soon wear off until the American Eagles start doing something.

 

[Makos]

Wow, you link this 1.2millions figure to this SIFA website and expect peeps to pay $195 to see the breakdown of this figure in terms of age, gender and geographical location? Why don't you pay (assuming you're not a member) and post up the breakdown?

I've found our discussion some what unpleasant and I don't really wish continuing it. I have tried my best to work of statistics and evidence rather than anecdotes and opinion. Pretty much any source and statistic I put fourth you dismissed, so there isn't really much point to continue this.

 

[bazwaz]

@ Every time ref
don't know if it was, short memory! But Barrett earned his place, if you don't think he's good enough overall fair enough but talk of dropping him just due to Saturday's performance is madness

I don't set much stall by Cruden's 100% success though, he's only 1 of 15. A 90% win rate or whatever over recent years means someone is likely to have ended up with a 100% record due to law of averages.




He earned his place but so did Cruden by never losing a game he's started for the ABs at 10...Both Barret and Cruden won a game each against each other this year in Super Rugby so not much in it i'll admit...
...but like i said it's not madness to revert back to the status quo of this year where Barret started at 22 and we won every game...call it rotation if you like..

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I've found our discussion some what unpleasant and I don't really wish continuing it. I have tried my best to work of statistics and evidence rather than anecdotes and opinion. Pretty much any source and statistic I put fourth you dismissed, so there isn't really much point to continue this.

Fine. But next time put some substance behind those statistics and maybe you'll have something to back up what you believe or are trying to argue. You called me uneducated - FYI I am educated to university level and have travelled extensively around the US. But your posts show no real understanding of just how the American sports market really works and how difficult it will be for 15 man rugby union to really crack the American market on a mass market level. I also think you vastly overestimate how much brand power the ABs has in the US to the average American sports fan because of 1 loss.

 

[Makos]

Fine. But next time put some substance behind those statistics and maybe you'll have something to back up what you believe or are trying to argue. You called me uneducated - FYI I am educated to university level and have travelled extensively around the US. But your posts show no real understanding of just how the American sports market really works and how difficult it will be for 15 man rugby union to really crack the American market on a mass market level. I also think you vastly overestimate how much brand power the ABs has in the US to the average American sports fan because of 1 loss.

You seem to have a serious case of taking things out off context and an argumentative personality which makes you unpleasant to converse with. I said you seemed uneducated on the American rugby situation. Not that you're 'uneducated' in general. I put fourth what sources are available on the internet, you put fourth opinion. I had more substances than what you were giving, all you did was discredit and undermine rather than provide any information or analysis yourself.

 

[Every Time Ref]

@ Every time ref
don't know if it was, short memory! But Barrett earned his place, if you don't think he's good enough overall fair enough but talk of dropping him just due to Saturday's performance is madness

I don't set much stall by Cruden's 100% success though, he's only 1 of 15. A 90% win rate or whatever over recent years means someone is likely to have ended up with a 100% record due to law of averages.




He earned his place but so did Cruden by never losing a game he's started for the ABs at 10...Both Barret and Cruden won a game each against each other this year in Super Rugby so not much in it i'll admit...
...but like i said it's not madness to revert back to the status quo of this year where Barret started at 22 and we won every game...call it rotation if you like..

If that is the case I agree. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting as I haven't followed all the NZ threads that closely, but my impression has been that there is suddenly a call for Barrett to be dropped purely on the basis of Saturday's performance. That is madness, the logic you're following isn't, fair enough.

 

[die_mole]

Statistic's is one of dodgiest areas of use of mathematics I've seen, which why the phrase "lies, damn lies and statistics".

The reality is statistics don't lie but people's application and interpretation of them is crap at the best of times. They think they've 'proven' something but anyone with some decent level of study into them usually know them to be complete and utter horlicks.

What is fastest growing? How have they come to that determination? If 1 person supported your sport and 100 people suddenly like it you suddenly have growth of 10,000% in that sample.

Recently our marketing department was deemed to be at 1000% above thier target. This came from a monthly target that was stupidly small and how much they blitzed it. Problem is as that month wasn't properly weighted against the rest of the years target's they looked like they were doing brilliant when in fact they were miles behind thier year end goal.

You can do a lot to make yourself sound great when in reality you're rubbish when you get to raw numbers of it all.

as an economics student who specializes in econometrics, whenever you do a statistical study you start off with your goal and then find the numbers to back it up

it's how all statistical research in the private sector works... they are meant to deliver whatever message the author wants to send

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You seem to have a serious case of taking things out off context and an argumentative personality which makes you unpleasant to converse with. I said you seemed uneducated on the American rugby situation. Not that you're 'uneducated' in general. I put fourth what sources are available on the internet, you put fourth opinion. I had more substances than what you were giving, all you did was discredit and undermine rather than provide any information or analysis yourself.

you are putting forth statistics that have zero substance... bad statistics is worse than zero statistics

have you taken stats classes or math past trig? anything in research methods?

you are also pushing the argument that quantitative is superior to qualitative evidence which is laughable at worst and arguable at best

 

[Makos]

as an economics student who specializes in econometrics, whenever you do a statistical study you start off with your goal and then find the numbers to back it up

it's how all statistical research in the private sector works... they are meant to deliver whatever message the author wants to send

Surely the fact America has nearly the same amount of registered players as NZ can't be overlooked as a market option.

America has a far larger ceiling than NZ due to population as well.

Anyhow I hope we continue these test matches in America, they're fun and it's great hearing from Americans about the game. Some of the tweets during the All Blacks vs USA Eagles was particular entertaining the other year.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/us-public-react-hilariously-to-nuts-and-intense-all-blacks-rugby-test/news-story/67b8010dff9b0796da83d30700beea95

you are putting forth statistics that have zero substance... bad statistics is worse than zero statistics

have you taken stats classes or math past trig? anything in research methods?

you are also pushing the argument that quantitative is superior to qualitative evidence which is laughable at worst and arguable at best

Why are they bad?

granted that SIFA one isn't strong, but what's bad about the amount of registered players and the audience the game reached?

 

[Peat]

Just out of interest how many times have you been to the US and travelled round there to get a gauge of the mentality of Americans and their love of sports and the coverage of their sports out there?

Four times with a total time span of near 6 months and I think you are far overtalking the problems of interest in rugby in the USA.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

You seem to have a serious case of taking things out off context and an argumentative personality which makes you unpleasant to converse with. I said you seemed uneducated on the American rugby situation. Not that you're 'uneducated' in general. I put fourth what sources are available on the internet, you put fourth opinion. I had more substances than what you were giving, all you did was discredit and undermine rather than provide any information or analysis yourself.

Hey it's a discussion board buddy, if you don't want to reply or converse please put me on your ignore list. If not, again have you had any real life experience of visiting the USA rather just picking off statistics from the internet? If you have, then do please share your experiences. As others, not just myself, have said statistics can be manipulated to suit an argument, unless there's some substance behind them. You showed a link to your 1.2 million participation stat, - fine but only problem is to look further into this stat you need to pay US$200 to see how this figure is broken down. Does this figure include 7s participation, a game which is different from the 15s game, which you said was the fastest growing in the US in the last 5 years.

 

[Makos]

Hey it's a discussion board buddy, if you don't want to reply or converse please put me on your ignore list. If not, again have you had any real life experience of visiting the USA rather just picking off statistics from the internet?

I haven't personally, but your compatriot has, so good luck in response to his comment 'buddy'.

By your attitude America isn't even worth mentioning rugby to.

Which I simply don't agree with.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Four times with a total time span of near 6 months and I think you are far overtalking the problems of interest in rugby in the USA.

Well I am glad you have been going through my posting history so thoroughly Peat. Until I see some real evidence of the 15 man rugby game really taking off in the US I remain a cynic that it'll be anything but a niche sport there.