[RWC2023] South Africa vs Ireland (23/09/2023)

[saulan]

​

 

[saulan]

Getting this started as I'm seeing discussions happening in a couple of the other game threads on this, and thought it best to try get the conversations consolidated into one place.

 

[ncurd]

Easy game of the weekend. Really hoping for an Ireland win in a brilliant contest between both side.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Ooooh baby. Bring it on!

1 v 2 in the world cup pools, presume that's never happened before? This is going to be cracker.

 

[saulan]

Ooooh baby. Bring it on!

1 v 2 in the world cup pools, presume that's never happened before? This is going to be cracker.

And hopefully the last time this happens. The closest to this I think was 2019 with New Zealand (2) vs South Africa (4).

 

[ncurd]

1 v 2 in the world cup pools, presume that's never happened before? This is going to be cracker.

Nope a few close ones but with NZ dominance focusing points in the SH for such a long time previous world cup draws weren't as wide open.

 

[ncurd]

And hopefully the last time this happens. The closest to this I think was 2019 with New Zealand (2) vs South Africa (4).

More likely to happen in the future. Especially with world cup draws the way they are. NZ had a gravitational pull on points for such a long time, Australia and South Africa would scrape up ranking points thanks to regular tri-nations matches and getting the occasional W that the stability of ranking was almost assured. Now that's leveled off in the past 3 years (it took an entire world cup cycle to fix the fact they were miles ahead and not ****) variation in those rankings is more likely to occur unless a team pull away like that again.

 

[saulan]

More likely to happen in the future. Especially with world cup draws the way they are. NZ had a gravitational pull on points for such a long time, Australia and South Africa would scrape up ranking points thanks to regular tri-nations matches and getting the occasional W that the stability of ranking was almost assured. Now that's leveled off in the past 3 years (it took an entire world cup cycle to fix the fact they were miles ahead and not ****) variation in those rankings is more likely to occur unless a team pull away like that again.

There has been talk from World Rugby that they're going to adjust the timings of the pool decisions in the future so that it is not as early, to prevent this sort of lob sided groupings in the future again.

We actually bled points from having to play New Zealand frequently (not talking about our 2016-18 dark times). It often felt like the case that we would build up our ranking points from AIs or the tours we would have, and then lose those points over to New Zealand.

 

[die_mole]

Hot take: the pools this tournament have been awesome. Maybe having Scotland in pool d instead of Japan or Samoa would be better but it's creating good story lines.

 

[Which Tyler]

Most importantly, Raeburn shield is up for grabs (and if Ireland win this, they're pretty much nailed on to take the longest run off NZ)

 

[OllyM97]

This is going to be absolutely brutal. The physio table for both teams could be full after this one. I'm looking forward to seeing arguably the two most in-form teams at the moment just go at each other. If I was going to guess the score I'd go 27 - 18 to the Bokke. I just think that as both benches get introduced, SA will get more impact and will take control up front.

 

[ncurd]

27 - 18 to the Bokke.

Really bold to predict a gap larger than 7.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Really bold to predict a gap larger than 7.

Predicting either team to concede more than 25 is too. Last time both did were in respective games away to NZ.

Its as 50/50 as it gets for me. 20-18 is the type of scoreline I'd expect.

I think we'll win, we've been the better and more consistent team over the past 2 years but SA look to have times a run perfectly so I wouldn't put anything on it.

 

[die_mole]

I'm predicting a springbok vs NZ at twickenham type game. Don't know who will be the winner though.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

My only concern for Ireland is at 31, James Lowe is possiboy looking on the start of a downward trajectory. Ireland could really have done with one of the Ulster wingers getting fit and stepping up. But this is a minor quibble, he is still very capable and deceptively fast despite rhe Zebo diet. Other than that Ireland have looked very handy all year and I will likely favour them here early in the tournament purely because they have a clear preferred gameplan and a clear preferred 23.

If I was the Boks, with a Scotland win under my belt and a near guaranteed QF, I would be tempted to experiment in this match at 9-10-12-13-15 with a view to the Tonga match and the break to finalise their number one lineup in these roles for the QF. SA have shown they can almost throw any 15 together and be competitive, so it wouldn't be that they are giving up on the win.

Alternatively, they could stick with Faf, Libbok, DDA for Ireland (as the apparent current first choice) and experiment against Tonga but you aren't going to learn much in a match against such an inferior opponent.

The alternative seems to be mixing things up in the knockouts and I would not want to be doing that. They have brought Pollard in for a hooker for a reason, and that reason is not for him to be a third choice emergency fly half, so he needs serious game time in the pool stage where there is a safety net if things don't work out.

OR just resign yourself to Pollard being the sub in this tournament who comes on early if there goal kicking issues.

OR pick Pollard and DDA in the QF and abandon the more attacking tactics we have seen from the Boks over the past 12 months.

Personally I'd go Faf, Pollard, Willemse, AE, Le Roux for this match and stick Libbok on at 50 mins to not overwork Pollard. I'm pretty certain this won't happen but its a real headscratcher for the coaches.

 

[die_mole]

Kolbe and faf are both good goal kickers. Kolbe has even been a replacement level ten in top 14. I think there are other goal kicking solutions than an injured pollard.

 

[Al Bangor]

I think South Africa will win in a good ol' fashioned slobberknocker.

 

[ncurd]

Predicting either team to concede more than 25 is too. Last time both did were in respective games away to NZ.

Its as 50/50 as it gets for me. 20-18 is the type of scoreline I'd expect.

Agreed entirely I'd be more in the ball part of 17-13 if either team breaks 20 they win the match IMHO

 

[unrated]

Ooooh baby. Bring it on!

1 v 2 in the world cup pools, presume that's never happened before? This is going to be cracker.

Its the real final. Or a precursor to a potential future final if both teams make it.

Whoever wins this game goes into the knockouts as the number 1 team in the world.

 

[IT157]

Kolbe and faf are both good goal kickers. Kolbe has even been a replacement level ten in top 14. I think there are other goal kicking solutions than an injured pollard.

Pollard isn't injured anymore. He's just not match fit. He will play against Tonga.