[2015 RWC] Semi Final 1: South Africa vs. New Zealand (24/10/2015)

[TRF_heineken]

Twickenham, London (24/10/2015, 16:00)
Semi-Final 1
Referee: Jérôme Garcès

Teams

South Africa: 15. Willie Le Roux, 14. JP Pietersen, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian De Allende, 11. Bryan Habana, 10 Handre Pollard, 9. Fourie Du Preez, 8. Duane Vermeulen, 7. Schalk Burger, 6. Francois Louw, 5. Lood De Jager, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Frans Malherbe, 2. Bismarck Du Plessis, 1. Beast Mtawarira.

Substitutes: 16. Adriaan Strauss, 17. Trevor Nyakane, 18. Jannie Du Plessis, 19. Victor Matfield, 20. Willem Alberts, 21. Ruan Pienaar, 22. Pat Lambie, 23. Jan Serfontein

New Zealand: 15. Ben Smith, 14. Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13. Conrad Smith, 12. Ma'a Nonu, 11. Julian Savea, 10. Daniel Carter, 9. Aaron Smith, 8. Kieran Read, 7. Richie McCaw (c), 6. Jerome Kaino, 5. Samuel Whitelock, 4. Brodie Retallick, 3. Owen Franks, 2. Dane Coles, 1. Joe Moody.

Reserves: 16. Keven Mealamu, 17. Ben Franks, 18. Charlie Faumuina, 19. Victor Vito, 20. Sam Cane, 21. Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22. Beauden Barrett, 23. Sonny Bill Williams.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Hmmm.

Its a difficult one this. I've said before and I'll say again that this RWC is two years too early for our youngsters and two years too late for our older heads. There's only a handful of guys in their prime here and only in the pack. Le Roux should be the right age but he's been dreadful for 2 years now.

I see the bookies have us 7 points behind NZ but I see it as more than that TBH. Probably closer to 15 in my mind. On a good day though we know we can beat NZ. But that would require a few things to go in our favor and you'll back NZ 4 times out of 5. I'll wait on line-ups and referee appointment to be made before I give a prediction. I think the referee appointment will be a massive factor for this one as it'll go some ways to determine the 'style' of game and lets be honest here we aren't gonna win by taking NZ on at their game and the worrying thing is we aren't playing our own game 100%;

Our line-out is fine but we can't but pressure on opposition line-outs as its seems referees are only blowing for skew throws if they go outside the line-out and not for throwing directly to your man. This takes an arrow away from us as Etzebeth is close to as good jumping at no.2 on opposition ball as he was 2 years ago again. It took sme time coming back from injury but he is in good form. De Jager is an injury doubt though I havn't seen a full report yet. Our scrum is good but we won't put NZ under much pressure here- its not good enough and I blame our staff for not selecting the props from our dominant Stormers and Lions teams who's scrum owned all commers in Super Rugby. In the backrow Vermeulen is class but still a tad rusty coming back from injury, Louw is good but not seemingly in dominating form (here we left all of Jaco Kriel- absolutely dominating the CC at the moment as top try scoring forward, overall top for pilfers and defenders beaten; the man is a monster even if not huge in stature he looks like he is made of adamantium, Brussow and Coetzee at home) and Burger is a liability IMO while Alberts is only on about 60 odd minutes of rugby played. I suppose I have to elaborate on my point on Burger as I suppose it goes against popular opinion in SA. How he managed to earn the official 'man of the match' award on Saturdays blows my mind. He got the nod on the back of the amount of carries and tackles he makes. He is also involved a lot as a distributor. My gripe is I question the *quality* of those carries, tackles and his distribution. I feel he kills off chances out wide and is just not up to the task as a distributor and after coming back from sickness his tackles and especially his carries lack impetus. Our whole game is based off go-forward ball from our big forwards and Burger and Beast just simply don't generate the meters. Burger goes in too high and got turned over 3 times on Saturday. In 26 carries Burger managed beating just a single defender. I've always cringed when the ball goes to Bismarck when there are chances elsewhere as he also goes into contact too high and his handling is suspect but at least he manages to fend the first tackler more often than not. Beast just goes to ground too quickly and makes it difficult for the support to arrive in time. Burger though for me is by far the worst simply for the fact that he gets involved so often that it becomes a problem.

In the backline, the issues are mainly at 01 and 15. But those are positions especially critical to the way we are going to have to play to be in with a chance of a win here. Le Roux's lack of improving sufficiently in the basics of fullback play has now become of huge concern at this critical stage. I'd be all for sticking Lambie in there. That would shore up the fact that Pollard's goal kicking is not up to where it probably needs to be as we'll probably be needing something close to 100% sucess at goal if we aren't scoring tries aplenty. Pollard's more sure on defense in the 10 channel though and I rate his general distribution and running game at 10 higher than Lambie's. If those two could interchange as needed we should have a chance at playing a better game as we'll be wanting to play in NZs half and we have the forwards to make that a realistic possibility if our general kicking game and discipline don't let us down. Territory and goals, that's how we are going to win this one if we want a chance.

 

[KeyboardWorrier]

NZ by 300pts.

 

[TRF_heineken]

This is not going to be easy at all. But if there is one team that can beat the All Blacks, it's us.

I just wonder if the All Blacks might be a bit under-prepared for this game as they haven't had a tough tight game all tournament. Or are they that good?? Either way, I'm thinking it will be a lot closer than the France game, and Since the rain has started to fall at Twickenham on Sunday, my guess is that we are in for a wetter game than we have seen this whole tournament so far.

I see there are murmurs that Willie Le Roux might not play, as he has an ankle injury, but nothing official yet.

 

[KeyboardWorrier]

This is not going to be easy at all. But if there is one team that can beat the All Blacks, it's us.

No... I'd say the Aussies have a much better chance (until we take out Pocock in the 35th minute).

 

[TRF_heineken]

No... I'd say the Aussies have a much better chance (until we take out Pocock in the 35th minute).

That's your opinion and I'm okay with that. But the past few years the match-ups between these 2 teams were very close affairs, With SA winning a match here and there, although, mostly in SA.

But on neutral ground it could be our chance to beat them.

I see Bismarck Du Plessis and Lood De Jager are now also injury concerns for the Boks.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

Did you face each other after the RC game in July? You didn't really deserve to lose that game.

 

[TheOvalBall]

This is All Blacks and Springboks on neutral territory. Anything can happen. No rain expected for Saturday. So far.

 

[saulan]

This is not going to be easy at all. But if there is one team that can beat the All Blacks, it's us.

I just wonder if the All Blacks might be a bit under-prepared for this game as they haven't had a tough tight game all tournament. Or are they that good?? Either way, I'm thinking it will be a lot closer than the France game, and Since the rain has started to fall at Twickenham on Sunday, my guess is that we are in for a wetter game than we have seen this whole tournament so far.

I see there are murmurs that Willie Le Roux might not play, as he has an ankle injury, but nothing official yet.

Rain is only scheduled for Wednesday this week, cloudy for Saturday but no rain. Super excited for this one. I fly up tomorrow evening and will be supporting in the stands Heyneke style. We definitely go into this game as underdogs. Can we win? Yes. Is it the likely outcome of the game at this moment in time? Definitely not. I think one thing to note though is that we shouldn't be judging the outcome of these games based on previous results in this World Cup as this has not worked out to well so far into the tournament. Everyone thought Australia would steamroll Scotland, but that didn't go quite according to plan. Many believed that Ireland would take the match, but the game didn't go their way at all. The Japan SA game, the tightness of Arg NZ. This has been a great World Cup of tight matches which have been tough to call (bar France's performance, which was abysmal, but credit must go to and cannot be taken away from New Zealander, as I said to a mate watching the match with me, New Zealand still had to perform regardless of France, and they performed magnificently).

All credit to the semi-finalists, they have all had to perform well to get to this stage. Good luck to both teams and lets hope we get Owens as the ref.

 

[TheOvalBall]

Rain is only scheduled for Wednesday this week, cloudy for Saturday but no rain. Super excited for this one. I fly up tomorrow evening and will be supporting in the stands Heyneke style. We definitely go into this game as underdogs. Can we win? Yes. Is it the likely outcome of the game at this moment in time? Definitely not. I think one thing to note though is that we shouldn't be judging the outcome of these games based on previous results in this World Cup as this has not worked out to well so far into the tournament. Everyone thought Australia would steamroll Scotland, but that didn't go quite according to plan. Many believed that Ireland would take the match, but the game didn't go their way at all. The Japan SA game, the tightness of Arg NZ. This has been a great World Cup of tight matches which have been tough to call (bar France's performance, which was abysmal, but credit must go to and cannot be taken away from New Zealander, as I said to a mate watching the match with me, New Zealand still had to perform regardless of France, and they performed magnificently).

All credit to the semi-finalists, they have all had to perform well to get to this stage. Good luck to both teams and lets hope we get Owens as the ref.

Really good post, and yes. Nigel Owens really needs to be the ref in this match. He makes very few mistakes.

 

[saulan]

Just for a bit of fun...

 

[TRF_heineken]

Really good post, and yes. Nigel Owens really needs to be the ref in this match. He makes very few mistakes.

With our luck it's going to be Romain Poite... Who didn't officiate a QF by the way....

 

[saulan]

With our luck it's going to be Romain Poite... Who didn't officiate a QF by the way....

I was under the impression that the referees were also in a bit of a knockout competition though? Surely the ref options are limited to those who reffed quarter finals?

 

[TRF_heineken]

I was under the impression that the referees were also in a bit of a knockout competition though? Surely the ref options are limited to those who reffed quarter finals?

I hope that is the case, although I wish we then don't get Jerome Garces. His inability to properly communicate with the TMO is something that is really ticking me off...

 

[WaterboySA]

With the two teams playing on current WC form, the AB's would win 19 out of 20 games. That being said, I don't think the Boks ever went into a knock out game as humbled as they are(please note I said humbled, not humble, lol). They had to play hard every minute after the Japan game. The AB's should NOT go into this game with the same attitude South Africa had for the Japan game. Do not think about the final before you win the semi. I rated my team to fall out in the semi's from the start. No matter who we played. If we give EVERYTHING we have for 80 minutes, I don't think I will be that gutted if we lose. Maybe this will give me the opportunity to enjoy the game no matter what. I did NOT enjoy the SA/Wales game.

 

[TRF_heineken]

With the two teams playing on current WC form, the AB's would win 19 out of 20 games. That being said, I don't think the Boks ever went into a knock out game as humbled as they are(please note I said humbled, not humble, lol). They had to play hard every minute after the Japan game. The AB's should NOT go into this game with the same attitude South Africa had for the Japan game. Do not think about the final before you win the semi. I rated my team to fall out in the semi's from the start. No matter who we played. If we give EVERYTHING we have for 80 minutes, I don't think I will be that gutted if we lose. Maybe this will give me the opportunity to enjoy the game no matter what. I did NOT enjoy the SA/Wales game.

Lol, I loved the SA vs Wales game. It had everything, Drop Goals, Tries, big hits, amazing turnovers, skills, offloads etc... If we have a game like that against the All Blacks and lose, I won't be sad or angry. Because then you know they went out put everything on the line and got beaten by the better team. And I will then cheer on the All Blacks to go all the way.

 

[TheOvalBall]

Well, my team France is out, so i will be backing the Boks to go all the way.

 

[nzlizard]

Yeah, based on current form it should be the AB's by about 10-15, but this is knockout rugby and its 80 minutes at a time.

I reckon the Boks will get up and give a good contest, normally happens when we play each other.

Just waiting on the injuries and the teams, heard tonight that we will know more about NMS's shoulder tomorrow.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Yeah, based on current form it should be the AB's by about 10-15, but this is knockout rugby and its 80 minutes at a time.

I reckon the Boks will get up and give a good contest, normally happens when we play each other.

Just waiting on the injuries and the teams, heard tonight that we will know more about NMS's shoulder tomorrow.

Yeah, and what about Crockett? He didn't look so good when he went off...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

For sure the All Blacks go into this one as firm favorites. But that's actually a good thing. We tend to play our best rugby with the underdog tag and always reserve our best rugby for NZ and England. Maybe I am being overly hopeful here. The only thing that would surprise me would be a comfortable SA win. I can see us sneaking it and I can see NZ inflating the scoreline with everything in between those results. So I guess I'm saying NZ by 6 with a 10 point margin either way. I'll revisit once we get more info.

I am hoping for Owens to be appointed here, Garces to officaite Aus and Argentina (with Argentina going through under controversial circumstances) and a SA vs Argentina final under Owens with SA playing their best ever game and strolling home to give fans' nerves a well-deserved rest; hey, a man can dream, can't he!