[RWC2023] New Zealand vs Italy (29/09/2023)

[Kiwiwomble]

This is a big game, i haven't checked the math but have seen some comment saying even a close win (Italy bonus point) might have ramifications down the track

We're now in the situation where we're probably going to have to play a close to full strength team to get some miles under the belt....but people like frizzell are coming back from injury

And i dont mean this as disrespecting Argentina....but i dont think many people though they had a chance in 2020, isolated due to COVID etc....so i dont think the fact we've never lost to Italy really means much as firsts seem to be something fozzie can make happen

 

[die_mole]

I certainly think New Zealand are heavy favorites. But I don't think an Italian upset is impossible.

I expect it to be close for the first 50 minutes before New Zealand proves to be too good. But sport is sport and I'm just glad we have multiple pools that are being contested.

 

[Brigantine]

I was just a bit worried about this game, but then I watched the 1st half of Italy vs Uruguay

Are we going to witness the biggest upset since 2015? (No - But if we do, it will be blamed for the election outcome in NZ 2 weeks later)

 

[Al Bangor]

I would love an Italian upset, but it's not going to happen. New Zealand will win by a lot.

 

[Amiga500]

I wonder could they...?

Could be worth a punt if the odds were racey.

 

[IT157]

New Zealand to win very comfortably.

 

[SteveAustin794582]

NZ haven't played the "new" Italy, i.e. the team that beat Wales & Oz in 2022, so it will be great to see how long Italy can push NZ for. I don't think they have a chance of beating NZ, but we will learn a lot about NZ and whether they are capable of putting Italy away like the NZ teams of previous years. If NZ struggle and continue with poor kicking etc. , then it will indicate a coming 20 point win for Ireland in the quarter-final.

 

[RedruthRFC]

I wonder could they...?

Could be worth a punt if the odds were racey.

29/1 - worth a small wager if you give them any sort of hope whatsoever. Particularly with the possibility of an early red card to New Zealand, I'd argue that 29/1 is value, but I don't bet nearly often enough to chase value on a long-odds punt like this. For fear of aftertiming, the only bet I've had so far was on Fiji to beat Australia, not because I was convinced of a win, but because I felt like Fiji win more than 1 in 3 times.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

even if we are to win, and that is most likely i think....its almost more about other ramifications...if Italy have a sniff of an upset and come out firing we're going to have to play hard to keep on top, are we going to pick up injuries? are we going to get cards? are our best players going to just get worn out going into the playoffs?

 

[Umaga's Witness]

What I want to see is discipline. I fear we have too many players wanting to be mcaw and none are as good. .we have a lot of experienced players who give away a lot of penalties at super and test level (my observation, don't have stats) - retallick, Scott barrett, whitelock, laulala, tuungafasi, cane, frizell, etc. It doesn't matter at super level, especially as they are not all in the same team.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

What I want to see is discipline. I fear we have too many players wanting to be mcaw and none are as good. .we have a lot of experienced players who give away a lot of penalties at super and test level (my observation, don't have stats) - retallick, Scott barrett, whitelock, laulala, tuungafasi, cane, frizell, etc. It doesn't matter at super level, especially as they are not all in the same team.

agreed, its stupid, shows a lack of confidence in themselves or their team mates and the risk of picking up bans could cause us issues

 

[Umaga's Witness]

Italy will be up for this game big time. Win it and they make the quarters. They'll know they have the best team they have ever had and the all blacks the worst. They would have been preparing for this game for a long time.

I don't trust This all blacks side will be adeqautely prepared mentally.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

fozzie has taught us nothing is impossible, i think a moment of brilliance from someone will get us a win and that will paper over the cracks again.....but as a team the AB's have very little to look back on to give them confidence...almost everyone is out of form and or coming back from injury, some frustration leading to some cards....and some smart play from italy and we could be in trouble

even just plugging the corners is enough to cause us problems, it use to be the case where you didnt want to kick to the AB because they'd strike back straight away...these guys will do a crossfield kick or bomb in their own 22 if they dont break the line within 3-4 phases, a deep kick and 4 good tackles and Italy could be getting the ball back in good position....its sad how basic unlocking this team might be

 

[BPM]

Italy will be up for this game big time. Win it and they make the quarters. They'll know they have the best team they have ever had and the all blacks the worst. They would have been preparing for this game for a long time.

I don't trust This all blacks side will be adeqautely prepared mentally.

Nothing you've said there is inaccurate but I do question whether Italy's best is as good as this NZ side's worst. It's definitely a lot closer than it would have been in the past, but an Italian win would still be a massive upset IMO.

Whether or not the current NZ team deserves it is debatable, but there is still an aura of invincibility around the All Blacks for those teams that have never beaten them. From a head and heart POV, Italy might logically know that they have a reasonable chance of winning but I'm not sure they'll truly believe they can.

To a degree, I'd have said similar about Italy facing England. In the last couple of years they've been eminently capable of beating us, but when it comes down to it, their confidence has evaporated and usual service has ensued.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

as i say...i didn't argentina had a chance back in 2020...and was proven wrong....so i just dont know anymore

yes, i think it would be an "upset"...but i think this could be their best chance, a rusty AB's low on confidence

but as i mentioned about my first concern is what we look on the other side, how beaten and bruised, will we have any bans or injuries

not long ago we would have run out a team full of second stringers....but i expect a largely full strength team

 

[Brigantine]

True... if NZ get away with just 1 yellow card all game, they'll be doing well

Still, we're talking about an outside chance of what would still be a historic upset, even considering current form. Scotland have never beaten NZ, and Wales haven't in almost 60 years. Italy would be mind blowing.

NZ currently paying $1.01 for a win. Italy $15. That's actually not a huge sign of confidence.

 

[Kiwiwomble]

"Still, we're talking about an outside chance of what would still be a historic upset "

im going to guess we could find that exact quote before Japan v SA...or Japan v Ireland....and to a lesser extent Argentina v AB's....hell, Ireland v AB's in 2016?

 

[Lé Ddanno]

I'm just not seeing it. Italy have a lot going for them, but it's very rare that they put together a complete performance in a match, and even then they'd be relying on a very bad day from the ABs.

I think this one is closeish in the first half, maybe even Italy within 3 points as they head to the sheds and then NZ remember that they can score 21 points between 54 and 67 minutes before anyone knows what's going on.

The Ireland QF could be quite spicy if they can find some real intensity. They must be ****** at losing the series last year.

 

[O’Doyle Rules]

I'm just not seeing it. Italy have a lot going for them, but it's very rare that they put together a complete performance in a match, and even then they'd be relying on a very bad day from the ABs.

I think this one is closeish in the first half, maybe even Italy within 3 points as they head to the sheds and then NZ remember that they can score 21 points between 54 and 67 minutes before anyone knows what's going on.

The Ireland QF could be quite spicy if they can find some real intensity. They must be ****** at losing the series last year.

Ireland equally have revenge of 2019 in mind and also just sheer determination to overcome the 1/4 hoodoo.

 

[Lé Ddanno]

Yeah for sure, I don't think there's any doubt that Ireland will show up for it