Japan RWC 2019

[ncurd]

Actually even as recently as 2016 they couldn't beat Italy

And in 2015 they lost all their group games.

I don't think they are going to improve anywhere near enough in 2 years to upset the top 3 teams in that group.

 

[smartcooky]

Have the USA ever beaten a 6 Nations/RC team?

In 2011 they couldn't even beat Italy.....

France in 1920, and again in the Olympic Final in 1924.

 

[SomeOke]

Heineken (or anyone else) do you have information on who the repechage winner could be?

From what I can tell it could be a pacific Island team - the NZHerald seems to think:
Repechage winner (the winner of a knockout series between the best sides from the Americas, Europe, Africa and the Asia/Oceania play-off* that have not qualified)

 

[Ground We Won]

Pool A: Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Europe 1, play-off winner (Europe 2 v Oceania 3)

Pool B: New Zealand, South Africa, Italy, Africa 1, repechage winner

Pool C: England, France, Argentina, Americas 1, Oceania 2

Pool D: Australia, Wales, Georgia, Oceania 1, Americas 2


Does Pool A winner play Pool B runner up and Pool B winner play Pool A runner up etc?

 

[TRF_heineken]

Heineken (or anyone else) do you have information on who the repechage winner could be?

From what I can tell it could be a pacific Island team - the NZHerald seems to think:
Repechage winner (the winner of a knockout series between the best sides from the Americas, Europe, Africa and the Asia/Oceania play-off* that have not qualified)

Yeah it could be. It would mean that it would basically then be the third placed Oceania team. But it can be anyone of the teams. The qualifying process is still ongoing.

 

[Caitlyn Jenner]

Heineken (or anyone else) do you have information on who the repechage winner could be?

From what I can tell it could be a pacific Island team - the NZHerald seems to think:
Repechage winner (the winner of a knockout series between the best sides from the Americas, Europe, Africa and the Asia/Oceania play-off* that have not qualified)

Yes, it will probably be a PI team, and that team will likely be Tonga.

 

[Brigantine]

Filling in the blanks with the expected qualifiers, and current WRR points (* - with 3 points added to Japan due to home advantage):

Pool A:

Ireland (4th - 84.66)
Scotland (5th - 82.18
Japan - Host (10th* - 77.22*) (Without the bonus they're 11th - 74.22)
Tonga (13th, 71.94)
Romania (16th, 70.15)​

Pool B:

New Zealand (1st - 94.78)
South Africa (7th - 81.79)
Italy (15th - 71.17)
Spain/Russia/Canada/Uruguay (Spain is 18th - 63.05)
Namibia (19th - 62.78)​

Pool C:

England (2nd - 89.53)
France (6th - 82.00)
Argentina (9th - 79.91)
Samoa (14th - 71.25)
USA (17th - 66.79)​

Pool D:

Australia (3rd - 86.35)
Wales (8th - 81.36)
Fiji (11th* - 76.46)
Georgia (12th - 72.92)
Uruguay/Canada (Uruguay is 21st - 61.24)​

Closest races for 1st in Pool:

1st: Pool A Ireland vs Scotland (2.48 point difference)
2nd: Pool D Australia vs Wales (4.99 point difference)

Pool A Ireland vs Japan - 7.44 point difference - Toughest Pool for top seed​

3rd: Pool C England vs France (7.53 point difference)

Pool C England vs Argentina - 9.62 point difference
Pool D Australia vs Fiji - 9.89 point difference​

4th: Pool B New Zealand vs South Africa (12.99 point difference)​

Closest races to qualify for QFs:

1st: Pool C France vs Argentina (2.09 point difference) - Pool of Death
2nd: Pool D Wales vs Fiji (4.90 point difference)
3rd: Pool A Scotland vs Japan (4.96 point difference)

Pool D Wales vs Georgia - 9.62 point difference​

4th: Pool B South Africa vs Italy (10.62 point difference)​

Closest races for RWC 2023 Automatic Qualification:

1st: Pool D Fiji vs Georgia (3.54 point difference) - It's more likely no Pacific countries will qualify for 2023 automatically (again), than 2 or all of them qualifying
2nd: Pool A Japan vs Tonga (5.28 point difference)
3rd: Pool B Italy vs Spain (8.12 point difference)

Pool A Japan vs Romania - 7.07 point difference
Pool B Italy vs Namibia - 8.39 point difference​

4th: Pool C Argentina vs Samoa (8.66 point difference)​

 

[ncurd]

I think the only problem with that analysis is due to NZ's and Eng's record breaking/equalling win streaks they've build up ranking points cushions which are possibly a little 'inflated'. Both lost to Ireland who are 10pts behind NZ and 5 Eng....so I think they are abit closer than that to the teams behind them.

 

[FNS]

Ahhh yiss! It´s not as bad for Argentina. We can be second there.

ps: do we know when tickets are available?

 

[Brigantine]

Hmm Australia, Wales, Fiji and Uruguay might all be in the same pool again... Only substituting Georgia in England's place.

There's a reasonable chance they'll even finish in the exact same order, if Georgia beats Fiji.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Ugh. Seems Italy will have to wait until 2023 to lift the cup.

Conspiracy theory around that Italy got the easiest fourth and fifth pool to ensure they finish third in group and don't cause complications for future RWC qualifying. Also that Japan may have intentionally got the weakest Band 1 & 2 options to keep home interest as long as possible. I expect Japan vs Scotland to be the last game in that pool.

I think the draw is excellent for the Wallabies and Springboks. They can take it easy in the group stage and will avoid NZ in the quarter finals.

Can someone get a giff ready of whatever Irish player punched the air when they got pool A? For use when they are eliminated in the group stage (which i'd rate at about a 10-15% chance).

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

I don't mind. Ideally i would have picked Aus and France but i'm ok with how things ended up for us.

To be fair, i see Group A as the "group of deatch". I guess it depends on how you define it, but for me, it's about how close the teams in that group are. Quick glance at the rankings shows the smallest standard deviation from the median in each group is in group A, not C.

Even if you disregard rankings, when i compare each member of A vs C, it's a coin toss in every case.

 

[Brigantine]

Yeah, Japan doesn't have a single game that's a foregone conclusion. That should help sell the tickets locally! Judging by current rankings They could beat Ireland on a good day, and could lose to Romania on a bad day.

Contrast to Pool B - especially if Spain doesn't qualify - the only unpredictable match in that group is the one between the two qualifiers. Namibia might win a RWC game for once!

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Couldn't have asked for a better draw for SA really. Ranked 7th places us nicely. Easy pool. At least as easy as could be asked for. Won't face NZ again until the final if we can make it as far. Now if only we could get our act together in 2 years' time. *sighs*

 

[profitius]

Yeah, Japan doesn't have a single game that's a foregone conclusion. That should help sell the tickets locally! Judging by current rankings They could beat Ireland on a good day, and could lose to Romania on a bad day.

Contrast to Pool B - especially if Spain doesn't qualify - the only unpredictable match in that group is the one between the two qualifiers.

Don't think Scots or Japan will beat us. We've an exciting new generation of players coming through now that will really boost the squad in terms of quantity and quality.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

On paper we should lose against France and England. Unless things change dramatically, i don't see us getting out of the group stage. Wish i was wrong, but i call is as i see it.

Don't think Scots or Japan will beat us. We've an exciting new generation of players coming through now that will really boost the squad in terms of quantity and quality.

I don't think South Africa thought they'd lose to Japan either. That's the beauty.
And in terms of a generation's potential, i've heard many irish claim 2007 was your best generation (and at their peak).

 

[profitius]

On paper we should lose against France and England. Unless things change dramatically, i don't see us getting out of the group stage. Wish i was wrong, but i call is as i see it.


I don't think South Africa thought they'd lose to Japan either. That's the beauty.
And in terms of a generation's potential, i've heard many irish claim 2007 was your best generation (and at their peak).

Don't think Ireland will take Japan or Scotland lightly in a world cup match. I don't think the Boks believed they could lose to Japan.

In terms of best generation, people can argue what one it is but all Irish would agree that we've more quantity of top level players now than we ever had.

 

[Toko_11]

Of the 4 groups we got the worst one for us.

Btw likely Repechage winners are Uruguay, Spain, Russia. Tonga will be the playoff winner.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

On paper we should lose against France and England. Unless things change dramatically, i don't see us getting out of the group stage. Wish i was wrong, but i call is as i see it.


I don't think South Africa thought they'd lose to Japan either. That's the beauty.
And in terms of a generation's potential, i've heard many irish claim 2007 was your best generation (and at their peak).

That is true enough. I was the most pessimistic of the SA posters on here ahead of that match (we had a 1/4 record under Poite, the Eddie Jones factor, our own disjointed selections, both team's results leading into the match.. ) and if memory serves right I still gave us a 15 point win.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Can someone get a giff ready of whatever Irish player punched the air when they got pool A? For use when they are eliminated in the group stage (which i'd rate at about a 10-15% chance).

It was Heaslip and can you blame him? Easiest possible group in terms of getting through with the fewest possible injuries. I'd probably rate our chances of topping the group at 85-90% and elimination at 2%, we're dealing with a side who have beaten us in 4 competitive games since the turn of the millennium and Japan who have won at best a handful of games against tier 1 opposition. It'll be the best squad we bring to an RWC and potentially the best starting XV too, failing to reach a semi here would be worse than 1999 and 2007 imo.