[RWC2023 SF2] England vs South Africa (21/10/2023)

[TRF_Olyy]

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[Al Bangor]

I don't have a favorite in this one, but I think South Africa will win.

 

[TommiG88]

Debating if I should get drunk or not!

Nearly bought a ticket, but then didn't want my beautiful face on TV when England win

 

[Scotty]

I don't have a favorite in this one, but I think South Africa will win.

I think that will be what most think to, about SA winning i mean.

Would love England to step up and give absolutly 100% and give them a good game, but SA will have to much for us.

I wonder what our gameplan will be? Territory and physical defence...and drop goals.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

We could genuinely lose this by 30 points + which is rather depressing - what's the biggest margin in a quarter ever?

 

[Jer1cho]

I expect a game similar to 2019 vs Wales. Needed a Francois Louw turnover to save us, after an absolutely dire quality game. It's gonna be tight, and ugly.

 

[Scotty]

We could genuinely lose this by 30 points + which is rather depressing - what's the biggest margin in a quarter ever?

Thing is if our players give 100% i really think we can keep the margain down tbh. We wont win without so luck.

Whats the age profile of this SA team? They have alot over 30 dont they? Not to do with this game they just seem an aging team. Are they going to need a rebuild post WC?

 

[TRF_Olyy]

We could genuinely lose this by 30 points + which is rather depressing - what's the biggest margin in a quarter ever?

Yeah, I can't see where we can compete tbh
Scrum will get ruined, our lineout's not been great and they've got about 13 players in their side taller than our locks, speed, power

Essentially they're good at what we struggle at (i.e. playing rugby)

Whats the age profile of this SA team? They have alot over 30 dont they? Not to do with this game they just seem an aging team. Are they going to need a rebuild post WC?

There's a few outliers but most seem to be 28-32

 

[Jer1cho]

Thing is if our players give 100% i really think we can keep the margain down tbh. We wont win without so luck.

Whats the age profile of this SA team? They have alot over 30 dont they? Not to do with this game they just seem an aging team. Are they going to need a rebuild post WC?

Yep. A whole host of our players will be gone after this tournament. It is going to be what NZ was after 2015. A huge rebuild of new players. I think we are the oldest team in the tournament.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I think that will be what most think to, about SA winning i mean.

Would love England to step up and give absolutly 100% and give them a good game, but SA will have to much for us.

I wonder what our gameplan will be? Territory and physical defence...and drop goals.

Was gonna say this should be our approach as well LOL. I almost expect we will more play the percentages here than anything else and trust our set piece. Marx will be missed this game more than any previous game (or a potential final if we manage it) IMO.

I expect a game similar to 2019 vs Wales. Needed a Francois Louw turnover to save us, after an absolutely dire quality game. It's gonna be tight, and ugly.

My thoughts exactly. That semi and also the 2007 final after the pool stages. The danger here as favorites is to try to avoid looking beyond this match because England will be coming out holding nothing back. Just the nature of a semi will very much even the playing field. My hope is that with it being England we'll get that little boost we get from playing them or NZ regardless of context. Another very long week!

Thing is if our players give 100% i really think we can keep the margain down tbh. We wont win without so luck.

Whats the age profile of this SA team? They have alot over 30 dont they? Not to do with this game they just seem an aging team. Are they going to need a rebuild post WC?

Jip, the team vs France was our most capped pack of all time for instance. I expect almost half our pack to move on directly after the RWC and the rest maybe a quarter makes it to the next in the same Vermeulen made this one and the last quarter continue on for 2 or 3 years in a transition stage. That said we do have young enough players in and around the squad but its difficult to replace the experience of a Vermeulen etc and we'll not have the incredible depth in quality and experience we have ATM. Not for a while I expect. Was wanting to do that thought experiment but won't do it in this thread. I know for Ireland and France this is "their RWC" if you look at their 4 year cycle and Sexton's moving on etc but for us it also will be a kind of end of an era. Think next one will be better for France as they have a very young squad.

England for me are where we ought to be or could've been but we rather decided to keep the older players and coaching setup and back them for another go at it and so far so good but who knows.

 

[Saintjay]

SA are the team England wish they could be. I wish we'd get away from trying to be the six nations South Africa and have are own style.

As others have said we simply don't have the players or current deph for that style of play and can't replicate it.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Yeah, I can't see where we can compete tbh
Scrum will get ruined, our lineout's not been great and they've got about 13 players in their side taller than our locks, speed, power

Essentially they're good at what we struggle at (i.e. playing rugby)


There's a few outliers but most seem to be 28-32

Agreed. All logic says the Boks should win at a canter, but the ball's a funny shape and cards are dished out like confetti. There's always a chance, however small.

On age etc, here's what I said on another thread that probably sits better here.

England shouldn't really have a prayer against the Boks, but….

The Boks have played two massive physically and emotionally draining matches against the - formerly - best 2 teams in the world.

Against that backdrop, worth noting that all of their starting pack last night was aged at least 31 with 3 of their forward subs also being 30+, the 2 28 year old babies being Snyman and Ox. Back line's a bit younger, but 4 of the starters were 29+ with the bench being 31, 29 and 34.

Everyone is also telling them they're shoo-ins for the final and quite probably the trophy. If ever there was a hard headed bunch who can put all that stuff to one side it's the Boks, but there is just an outside chance that they might not be at full throttle, although we would still need to be right on it to take advantage.

 

[Jer1cho]

Yeah, I can't see where we can compete tbh
Scrum will get ruined, our lineout's not been great and they've got about 13 players in their side taller than our locks, speed, power

Essentially they're good at what we struggle at (i.e. playing rugby)


There's a few outliers but most seem to be 28-32

Rugby is a funny game. Never before the 2019 Semi Eng vs NZ had we EVER seen a NZ team dominated like that. If it clicks for England, they become an incredibly tough team to break down.

 

[BrokenWing]

That's a mighty big IF

 

[Jer1cho]

That's a mighty big IF

In 2019 NZ vastly underestimated England, and England vastly underestimated SA before the final. If SA vastly underestimates Eng this time out, the 'if' doesn't seem so far fetched.

Having said that I feel this Bok team is better than that now. We seem to be pitching up consistently now.

 

[saulan]

The Boks have played two massive physically and emotionally draining matches against the - formerly - best 2 teams in the world.

This is a point I've seen raised. But I would also point this out from Reddit (was from before the Quarter Finals):
1) We rested our players efficiently in the group stages. Clearly there was an eye on game time and most of or players were in the 145-180 minute range. Only player who has played most minutes is Willemse, and he is one of our youngest
2) We had a two week gap coming into the France game. Our team is relatively rested in general. That France game was massive, but the expectation was always going to be that you needed to do three weeks big in a row, and they'll be prepped for that.



Only player I think at risk of being gassed is Vermeulen, and I don't think we play him against England.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

I wish Underhill had got a run off the bench v Fiji. His kind of hitting will be needed.

Front 5 will be crucial. First scrum "Hi Dan, remember 2019?".

We need to hang in as long as possible. Obvious game for Marler to start. At TH Cole either starts or isn't involved. Will his scrummaging really make a materiel difference over Sinckler or Stuart against the Boks juggernaut?

George has to be running on fumes already, but will stay on the field as long as he can walk and we're vaguely in contention. I almost fear for Dan's well being against that pack.

Locks presumably Itoje and Chessum. Given we have Lawes as a line out option, maybe some temptation to play Martin's extra ballast? Either way the best lock by a distance will be in green.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

This is a point I've seen raised. But I would also point this out from Reddit (was from before the Quarter Finals):
1) We rested our players efficiently in the group stages. Clearly there was an eye on game time and most of or players were in the 145-180 minute range. Only player who has played most minutes is Willemse, and he is one of our youngest
2) We had a two week gap coming into the France game. Our team is relatively rested in general. That France game was massive, but the expectation was always going to be that you needed to do three weeks big in a row, and they'll be prepped for that.

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Only player I think at risk of being gassed is Vermeulen, and I don't think we play him against England.

Fair point. It's probably more the mental side Im thinking of, but please let me have a straw to clutch at!

 

[TRF_Olyy]

My magnum opus:

 

[Grizwald]

South Africa are rightly firm favourites. They're a much better team than they were in 2019, the difference being in addition to a dominant pack they can now cut you open in the backs.

The straw I'm clutching at is the November 2021 win, that day the English pack was on paper a weaker one Joe Marler and Will Stuart were on the bench. Marcus Smith was at 10 and we scraped a win despite being well outmatched upfront, SA got x7 pens and one unconverted try, England scored x3 tries. It was pretty much a full strength SA side with the bomb squad on the bench and SA's preferred centre partnership of Am and de Allende.

I think it's pretty much the same England XV as against Fiji, the main question is if Steward comes back in at 15 with a horses for courses approach, or Smith is retained, potentially sticking Steward on one wing to defuse and pose our own ariel threat. Got to say I think Steward form has dropped off a lot-in the Nov 21 game he was breaking onto the international scene and looking the real deal.

I don't think Borthwick will but I'd roll the dice and play Arundell to introduce some pace and X factor, but suspect it will be May and Daly. Not sure on the bench split, there's logic behind 6:2 which would mean Ford drops out the 23 all together which is harsh but only warmed the bench against Fiji.

England Team Nov 21

Forwards

• 1 Bevan Rodd
• 2 Jamie Blamire
• 3 Kyle Sinckler
• 4 Maro Itoje
• 5 Jonny Hill
• 6 Courtney Lawes (Captain)
• 7 Sam Underhill
• 8 Tom Curry

Backs

• 9 Ben Youngs
• 10 Marcus Smith
• 11 Jonny May
• 12 Manu Tuilagi
• 13 Henry Slade
• 14 Joe Marchant
• 15 Freddie Steward

Replacements

• 16 Nic Dolly
• 17 Joe Marler
• 18 Will Stuart
• 19 Charlie Ewels
• 20 Sam Simmonds
• 21 Alex Dombrandt
• 22 Raffi Quirke
• 23 Max Malins

South Africa Team

Forwards

• 1 Ox Nché
• 2 Bongi Mbonambi
• 3 Trevor Nyakane
• 4 Eben Etzebeth
• 5 Lood de Jager
• 6 Siya Kolisi (Captain)
• 7 Kwagga Smith
• 8 Duane Vermeulen

Backs

• 9 Cobus Reinach
• 10 Handré Pollard
• 11 Makazole Mapimpi
• 12 Damian de Allende
• 13 Lukhanyo Am
• 14 Jesse Kriel
• 15 Willie le Roux

Replacements

• 16 Malcolm Marx
• 17 Steven Kitshoff
• 18 Vincent Koch
• 19 Franco Mostert
• 20 Jasper Wiese
• 21 Herschel Jantjies
• 22 Elton Jantjies
• 23 Frans Steyn