[RWC2023 QF4] France vs South Africa (15/10/2023)

[TRF_Olyy]

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[TRF_Olyy]

This is the most intriguing matchup of the QFs for me, I can have a guess at the winners of the other games but no idea here

My pre-tournament prediction was RSA to beat France, and I think I'm still leaning that way, but I think it's going to be real tight
No chance they'll do 7-1 but I reckon 6-2 is on the cards for the Boks, with them heavily targeting the French pack (after seeing them struggle vs Australia in the warmups)

DuPont has been cleared to get back into training today, if he plays (and the injury doesn't impact him) that's a mmaassssiivvee boost for France

 

[unrated]

This is the most intriguing matchup of the QFs for me, I have can have a guess at the winners of the other games but no idea here

My pre-tournament prediction was RSA to beat France, and I think I'm still leaning that way, but I think it's going to be real tight
No chance they'll do 7-1 but I reckon 6-2 is on the cards for the Boks, with them heavily targeting the French pack (after seeing them struggle vs Australia in the warmups)

DuPont has been cleared to get back into training today, if he plays (and the injury doesn't impact him) that's a mmaassssiivvee boost for France

Yeah, think 6-2, with Pollard covering 10 &12 from the bench, with another 9 also on the bench.

Dont think they will start Pollard.

Am is back and a very small chance he straight up replaces Kriel, but I hope not, as he is not match ready.

 

[ikvat]

This is the most intriguing matchup of the QFs for me, I can have a guess at the winners of the other games but no idea here

My pre-tournament prediction was RSA to beat France, and I think I'm still leaning that way, but I think it's going to be real tight
No chance they'll do 7-1 but I reckon 6-2 is on the cards for the Boks, with them heavily targeting the French pack (after seeing them struggle vs Australia in the warmups)

DuPont has been cleared to get back into training today, if he plays (and the injury doesn't impact him) that's a mmaassssiivvee boost for France

Hard to compare the pack during the warmup and now, as we know that the team was in full physical prematation. But yes, it will be the match key.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Hard to compare the pack during the warmup and now, as we know that the team was in full physical prematation. But yes, it will be the match key.

Yeah, agree with that - it's just the only possible chink in the armour I can see with this French side, and is an area of strength for the Boks

 

[Jakedood]

This is the most intriguing matchup of the QFs for me, I can have a guess at the winners of the other games but no idea here

My pre-tournament prediction was RSA to beat France, and I think I'm still leaning that way, but I think it's going to be real tight
No chance they'll do 7-1 but I reckon 6-2 is on the cards for the Boks, with them heavily targeting the French pack (after seeing them struggle vs Australia in the warmups)

DuPont has been cleared to get back into training today, if he plays (and the injury doesn't impact him) that's a mmaassssiivvee boost for France

It's games like this I feel Paul Willemse is a massive loss. His bulk stabilises them and he does so much grunt work to allow Flament to shine. Woki is more of a hybrid, and I think they miss the physicality
Danty will be huge too, but I'd pick the French back row over their Bok counterparts.
It could all come down to some magic, from Kolbe/Arendse, or Dupont/Penaud/Ramos. If anyone can play through the blitz, it's France

 

[ncurd]

It's games like this I feel Paul Willemse is a massive loss. His bulk stabilises them and he does so much grunt work to allow Flament to shine. Woki is more of a hybrid, and I think they miss the physicality
Danty will be huge too, but I'd pick the French back row over their Bok counterparts.
It could all come down to some magic, from Kolbe/Arendse, or Dupont/Penaud/Ramos. If anyone can play through the blitz, it's France

France have been held to less than 21 points just 6 times in the past 4 years (and only lost 4 of those games). They've had one game where they've scored less than 14. And always get in double digits (13 being theirr lowest score).

They've won every game they've score more than 21 points.

Most of that should be fairly obvious but the point being containing France is ******* hard. Keeping up with them also bloody difficult.

 

[IT157]

South Africa for the victory. Dupont plays but obviously not 100%. Libbok surprisingly has over a 90% success rate at kicking in the game!

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Difficult to predict. I see this match as a bit of a grudge match in that most South Africans feel this RWC was ours to host but France bought it. If it were in SA- I'd favor us heavily. France has a poor record in SA even against mediocra Bok sides. In France is a much different story.

Last match was November which France won 30-26 BUT we played 70 minutes with PSdT rightfully out with a reckless red card. Add to that I feel our sides will be a bit stronger than the Nov side and France's arguably a little less so... Well, its a hell of a mountain to climb but I'm backing us why not.

In Nov France had the balance of it for territory and beat us because of two more penalties. Ramos is such a weapon! We just need to play in the correct half and keep it there. I truly hope our approach here is more in line with our strengths than what we went with vs Ireland in the pools. We need to win the 1st 20 minutes. Make the french doubt and chase will be the key. My biggest fear almost is the crowd and the expected 50/50's that one would expect the home side to get- the margins are so small. I am surprised to see neutral fans backing SA- I'd have thought France would be seen as somewhat clear favorites?

But anyway, I think this is going to be the match of the QFs. May the best team win and wondering who we go with at 10 and which Libbok pitches. Stats say he kicks either 100% or 40% and under. Not one for the middle ground, Libbok. You don't want to punch with one hand tied v this French side.

 

[dirty harry]

France have every advantage going into this, momentum, home crowd, statistics...

I'm not sure if us NHers are just reluctant to make them favourites over the SH big names, we have had too much trauma over the last 100 years.

Same with NZ, people giving them a chance because... its NZ. No metric is giving Nz much of a shout.

That said go and watch it be an all SH semi final now lol

 

[General Melchett]

Tie of the round for me. Think Ireland will beat NZ fairly comfortably but this one could go either way.

If Pollard is back think his steadiness and RWC pedigree could be the difference in terms of scoreboard management.

 

[dirty harry]

Anyone know the refs yet?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Anyone know the refs yet?

That's a big one for me. Hoping for Barnes actually. Barnes and Pollard starting. I hear most SA fans saying Manie to start but for me I go Pollard every day. He isn't the type of player that needs 5 games to get into his own.

I'm hoping for a 5-3 bench like Nov to go Reinach, Libbok and Am bench BUT I expect we'll see a 6-2 and no Am.

Hopefully we see no cards here. At some stage last year we were down to 13 men. PSdT and Dupont both seeing red but France had 40 minutes more of Dupont than we had Du Toit. Both France's tries were around the ruck. Vermeulen to start for my money. So hoping to see:

Kitshoff / Mbonambi / Malherbe
Etzebeth / Mostert
Kolisi / Du Toit / Vermeulen
De Klerk / Pollard
Arendse / De Allende / Kriel / Kolbe / Willemse

Nche / Fourie / Nyakane / Snyman / Smith / Reinach / Libbok / Am or Le Roux. I include Libbok only because I don't know how much about Pollard's fitness.

 

[dirty harry]

That's a big one for me. Hoping for Barnes actually. Barnes and Pollard starting. I hear most SA fans saying Manie to start but for me I go Pollard every day. He isn't the type of player that needs 5 games to get into his own.

I'm hoping for a 5-3 bench like Nov to go Reinach, Libbok and Am bench BUT I expect we'll see a 6-2 and no Am.

Hopefully we see no cards here. At some stage last year we were down to 13 men. PSdT and Dupont both seeing red but France had 40 minutes more of Dupont than we had Du Toit. Both France's tries were around the ruck. Vermeulen to start for my money. So hoping to see:

Kitshoff / Mbonambi / Malherbe
Etzebeth / Mostert
Kolisi / Du Toit / Vermeulen
De Klerk / Pollard
Arendse / De Allende / Kriel / Kolbe / Willemse

Nche / Fourie / Nyakane / Snyman / Smith / Reinach / Libbok / Am or Le Roux. I include Libbok only because I don't know how much about Pollard's fitness.

I think you play potentially England in the next round, we want Barnes for our quarter final!!!

You can have... Berry, or Brace

 

[unrated]

France have been held to less than 21 points just 6 times in the past 4 years (and only lost 4 of those games). They've had one game where they've scored less than 14. And always get in double digits (13 being theirr lowest score).

They've won every game they've score more than 21 points.

Most of that should be fairly obvious but the point being containing France is ******* hard. Keeping up with them also bloody difficult.

Scoring against the Boks should also be reasonably difficult. Defence has been a standout feature under the Nienanber HC reign and as you would rightly expect from a defence guru.

 

[OldSchoolRugga]

Am and Pollard back at the right time ? Leaning towards the Boks.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I think you play potentially England in the next round, we want Barnes for our quarter final!!!

You can have... Berry, or Brace

Nic Berry would be hilarious. I'd keep clear of SA media if that were the selection. Oddly. I believe Brace has been appointed only as a touch judge? So not too concerned about that unless I am mistaken but TBF I wouldn't overly mind a coin toss. I'm just thankful we are garuanteed no French ref!

Am and Pollard back at the right time ? Leaning towards the Boks.

Pollard for me is an auto selection. Am I don't know how fit he is. TBH I'd take Kriel over Am at this stage. Am was struggling in the RC- TBF he wasn't 100% I can't believe I am saying this but Kriel has been going well. We know the ball stops with him on attack so we'll have to skip him or the wingers will have to get the ball elsewhere- chasing kicks most likely- but he has been monumental on D.

 

[Jakedood]

France have every advantage going into this, momentum, home crowd, statistics...

I'm not sure if us NHers are just reluctant to make them favourites over the SH big names, we have had too much trauma over the last 100 years.

Same with NZ, people giving them a chance because... its NZ. No metric is giving Nz much of a shout.

That said go and watch it be an all SH semi final now lol

Momentum, yes
I think the recent difference last autumn was a four point win to France, but SA had an early red card?
I genuinely think it comes down to this... to beat a blitz dfefense you need to play trhough it, so sharp footwork at the line in Danty and the back row forwards, they have that. Then you need offloads, and the crucial bit for France is whether or not they can stick the offloads or cough up possession
That and Ramos potentially going haywire one way or the other

 

[dirty harry]

Nic Berry would be hilarious. I'd keep clear of SA media if that were the selection. Oddly. I believe Brace has been appointed only as a touch judge? So not too concerned about that unless I am mistaken but TBF I wouldn't overly mind a coin toss. I'm just thankful we are garuanteed no French ref!

Oh you might be right actually.

In that case you can have Gardner, and I offer you Ridley, and Evan's to run the line, and Joy Neville in the box.

Enjoy

 

[Jakedood]

Scoring against the Boks should also be reasonably difficult. Defence has been a standout feature under the Nienanber HC reign and as you would rightly expect from a defence guru.

Also Am has been absolutely critical to this, teams have struggled to get around him because of his defensive reads and intelligence. He's so so good. If it's Kriel at 13, that's definitely going to help France, and it's most likely to be at this point