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[2018 November Tests] England vs New Zealand 10/11/18

BPM

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I’m absolutely not defending Daly’s poor showing under the high ball, but I don’t see that we have many alternatives?

We can’t rely solely on Brown. He’s still a very safe option, but his ability is on the wane and it’s too much of a risk to rely on him being fit without testing other options.

With Watson injured, the realistic alternatives are to give Daly more time in the role, recall Goode or gamble on Woodward.

Given that Eddie’s shown no signs of the latter two, Daly is the only real option.

We could try Slade or Lozowski at 15 but neither play there regularly for their clubs either and at least Daly has more experience in the back three from a positional point of view.
 

TommiG88

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SA had a lot of territory in England's half. England were also losing a lot of collisions and were on the back foot, particularly up front. It would be a bit stupid to try to play from there especially when it's still the first half and they were not chasing the game yet. Kicking was the sensible option

My point was, he carried the kicking duties in the first half and a lot of it was too long and straight into the arms of a SA player. Mind you, a couple of his touch finders were good.

In the second half, even in defensive positions he was moving it on to Farrell, and I think his kicking was a lot more positive.
 

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I’m absolutely not defending Daly’s poor showing under the high ball, but I don’t see that we have many alternatives?

We can’t rely solely on Brown. He’s still a very safe option, but his ability is on the wane and it’s too much of a risk to rely on him being fit without testing other options.

With Watson injured, the realistic alternatives are to give Daly more time in the role, recall Goode or gamble on Woodward.

Given that Eddie’s shown no signs of the latter two, Daly is the only real option.

We could try Slade or Lozowski at 15 but neither play there regularly for their clubs either and at least Daly has more experience in the back three from a positional point of view.

A full back who can't deal with a high ball is a liability and a vulnerability that even an average team can prey on - they have to bring a hell of a lot else to offset that. Daly may just have had a bad day at the office, so I'm not chucking the baby out with the bathwater just yet, but the ABs are arch pragmatists and his struggles won't have gone unnoticed.

It's also one of those positions where I'm keen on an out and specialist and made that point prior to SA, also noting that none of the alternatives were specialists either. While I used to advocate Watson, I've moved away from that. Frankly we could do worse than Goode, especially if we picked 2 fliers on the wings to complement him. V surprised that Jones hasn't had a proper look at Woodward though. Beyond that, who else? Hammersley?

But as I said earlier, I expect Brown will be our first choice for the big games in Japan.
 

Xsypher

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Presumably you've missed all of his international caps? :p
Goode is fantastic for Sarries but has been sub par at very very best for England, and he's had more than enough chances to prove he can cut it an international level.

I'm not sure Goode's form would translate to the current England team, but his chances came under a different regime and in a worse team. I would argue that if Slade continues to get chances, why shouldn't Goode get another look in?

Ultimately I don't think either makes the 23 when we have no injuries, but I think the same approach applies to both as far as getting the best team for the 2019 WC is concerned.
 

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A full back who can't deal with a high ball is a liability and a vulnerability that even an average team can prey on - they have to bring a hell of a lot else to offset that. Daly may just have had a bad day at the office, so I'm not chucking the baby out with the bathwater just yet, but the ABs are arch pragmatists and his struggles won't have gone unnoticed.

It's also one of those positions where I'm keen on an out and specialist and made that point prior to SA, also noting that none of the alternatives were specialists either. While I used to advocate Watson, I've moved away from that. Frankly we could do worse than Goode, especially if we picked 2 fliers on the wings to complement him. V surprised that Jones hasn't had a proper look at Woodward though. Beyond that, who else? Hammersley?

But as I said earlier, I expect Brown will be our first choice for the big games in Japan.

I think we're almost all in violent agreement. Daly potentially has a higher ceiling than other candidates but:

a, he's not a specialist
b, he had a shocker under the high ball against the boks

Brown is a known quantity but is waning slowly. Can we rely on him alone in 2019? I guess that's an unknown but he's clearly not the future.

Slade or Lozowski at 15 feels like grasping at straws. May as well stick Ashton back there on the basis he did a job for Toulon. However given he's a fairly gash defender on the wing the thought of him defending the All Blacks at full back is frankly terrifying / hilarious.

Alex Goode? We've tried that and despite him being a very fine player, he's consistently failed wearing the rose. It's a shame but I don't think he's improved it's just likely that the step up between Premiership, European level and full international blunts his skills just enough to render him almost fully ineffective. However, based on last week I could certainly make an argument for his inclusion at 15 over Daly. As you mention, dealing with the high ball would pretty much be the number 1 requirement for a fullback. Daly absolutely was a liability as soon as any significant challenge is made. Again as you say it's not like the All Blacks are terrible at analysing the failings of their opponents. It'll be raining bombs. Both Goode and Brown are better at this component of the game.

Eddie may have waited too long. I suspect that if the wheels hadn't come off the chariot succession planning may have been a priority. I suspect saving his job became a little more important............
 

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A full back who can't deal with a high ball is a liability and a vulnerability that even an average team can prey on - they have to bring a hell of a lot else to offset that. Daly may just have had a bad day at the office, so I'm not chucking the baby out with the bathwater just yet, but the ABs are arch pragmatists and his struggles won't have gone unnoticed.

It's also one of those positions where I'm keen on an out and specialist and made that point prior to SA, also noting that none of the alternatives were specialists either. While I used to advocate Watson, I've moved away from that. Frankly we could do worse than Goode, especially if we picked 2 fliers on the wings to complement him. V surprised that Jones hasn't had a proper look at Woodward though. Beyond that, who else? Hammersley?

But as I said earlier, I expect Brown will be our first choice for the big games in Japan.

I think Daly could grow into the role but not against the ABs that has potential to destroy his cobfidence, I don’t think he should be there in a game like this more eased into the role, for me Goode and Woodward are the obvious choices but as has been pointed out Goode doesn’t seem to cut it at test level. Leaving Woodward I’m not entirely sure why Eddie has heald back he’s pretty solid and isn’t exactly slow certainly a massive upgrade on browns pace. I think the same logic to Goode needs to be considered to Slade which leaves the 13 position open in JJs absence of course many could stay fit and surprise us all but long term I would love to see him at 12 and mix it up offering running and passing threats so the outside channels don’t become surplus to requirement.
 

BluenoseKelv

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I think Daly could grow into the role but not against the ABs that has potential to destroy his cobfidence, I don’t think he should be there in a game like this more eased into the role, for me Goode and Woodward are the obvious choices but as has been pointed out Goode doesn’t seem to cut it at test level. Leaving Woodward I’m not entirely sure why Eddie has heald back he’s pretty solid and isn’t exactly slow certainly a massive upgrade on browns pace. I think the same logic to Goode needs to be considered to Slade which leaves the 13 position open in JJs absence of course many could stay fit and surprise us all but long term I would love to see him at 12 and mix it up offering running and passing threats so the outside channels don’t become surplus to requirement.

I wouldn't mind seeing Slade at 12 tbh. Woodward would be an option at 15 we have some decent youngsters coming through though with Max Malins, Tom Parton and Ali Crossdale looking decent at their early age.
 

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I wouldn't mind seeing Slade at 12 tbh. Woodward would be an option at 15 we have some decent youngsters coming through though with Max Malins, Tom Parton and Ali Crossdale looking decent at their early age.

Maybe, but he doesn’t play there for club, to my mind u need mostly players in their natural position and can play a few out of position if it fits the plan and they have the star quality to warrant it over others, does he have that quality, I’m mixed minds on that if I am honest, think I’ve only heard of one of the 3 you mention, I was under the impression Malins was a 10 at Sarries, could be wrong though.
 

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The 25 players retained by Eddie Jones from today onwards:

Forwards
Charlie Ewels (Bath Rugby), Jamie George (Saracens), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints) co-captain, Alec Hepburn (Exeter Chiefs), Maro Itoje (Saracens), George Kruis (Saracens), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Zach Mercer (Bath Rugby), Ben Moon (Exeter Chiefs), Brad Shields (Wasps), Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins), Sam Underhill (Bath Rugby), Harry Williams (Exeter Chiefs), Mark Wilson (Newcastle Falcons).

Backs
Chris Ashton (Sale Sharks), Danny Care (Harlequins), Elliot Daly (Wasps), Owen Farrell (Saracens) co-captain, George Ford (Leicester Tigers), Jonny May (Leicester Tigers), Jack Nowell (Exeter Chiefs), Henry Slade (Exeter Chiefs), Ben Te’o (Worcester Warriors), Manu Tuilagi (Leicester Tigers), Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers).

I'd assume this means we will see a pretty similar team, with Underhill coming in to replace Curry.
 

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So Ewels and Ashton likely to be excluded come match day.
 

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For ABs it will be interesting to see if they play SBW and Goodhue in midfield.
 

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as a kiwi...i have no idea whats going to happen...mainly due to not being sure who Hansen will play, i'm not even sure he'll field a full strength team, i expect at least one surprise, i think Hansen is playing silly buggers now, trying to "hide" is 1st XV
 

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as a kiwi...i have no idea whats going to happen...mainly due to not being sure who Hansen will play, i'm not even sure he'll field a full strength team, i expect at least one surprise, i think Hansen is playing silly buggers now, trying to "hide" is 1st XV

I’d be surprised if it wasn’t the 22 who flew last week to London, plus Mo’unga in the 22 shirt. So the starting XV v the Wallabies but with Smith and Brodie returning to the starting XV (Scott Barrett and TJ returning as impact subs), plus I think SBW-Goodhue centre pairing as that was the pairing Hansen wanted to see v the Boks before Goodhue got Glandular fever, but I read he’s now recovered from and travelled with the 22. Then Crotty or ALB covering the 23 shirt.

Otherwise what was the point of playing a second team v Japan and giving the 22 a head start to prepare this week?

Full strength sides barring injury v England and Ireland. Then v Italy a more experimental side.
 

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Not playing a firstish choice 23 against England/Ireland would be the kind of hubris I dont expect the ABs to be foolish enough to do. If possible you dont want to give a wiff of blood. Play a 2nd XV and England's tail would be up thinking they might sneak a scalp.

The ABs have not shown mercy in the past when they shouldn't consider it now.
 

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as a kiwi...i have no idea whats going to happen...mainly due to not being sure who Hansen will play, i'm not even sure he'll field a full strength team, i expect at least one surprise, i think Hansen is playing silly buggers now, trying to "hide" is 1st XV
Really? It couldn't be clearer who is going to play. They sent 22 of the 23 to England a few days early from Japan.

McKenzie
Smith
Crotty
SBW
Ioane
Barrett
Smith
Read
Savea
Squire
Whitelock
Retallick
Franks
Taylor
Moody
-------
ALB
Mo'ouga
Perenara
Todd
Barrett
Tu'ungafasi
Harris
Tuinukuafe

Of interest:
Mo'unga and Tu'ungafasi the only ones to back up from Japan last week.
Goodhue I assume it will be too soon after glandular fever.
Possible the 2 halfbacks swap roles with TJP starting.
 

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I’d be surprised if it wasn’t the 22 who flew last week to London, plus Mo’unga in the 22 shirt. So the starting XV v the Wallabies but with Smith and Brodie returning to the starting XV (Scott Barrett and TJ returning as impact subs), plus I think SBW-Goodhue centre pairing as that was the pairing Hansen wanted to see v the Boks before Goodhue got Glandular fever, but I read he’s now recovered from and travelled with the 22. Then Crotty or ALB covering the 23 shirt.

Otherwise what was the point of playing a second team v Japan and giving the 22 a head start to prepare this week?

Full strength sides barring injury v England and Ireland. Then v Italy a more experimental side.

i'd like to think you were right...if im honest i dont even know what he considers his 1st XV so hard to know it when we see it...sometimes i wonder if he always throws one or two changes in just in case we loose there is something to point at

Really? It couldn't be clearer who is going to play. They sent 22 of the 23 to England a few days early from Japan.

McKenzie
Smith
Crotty
SBW
Ioane
Barrett
Smith
Read
Savea
Squire
Whitelock
Retallick
Franks
Taylor
Moody
-------
ALB
Mo'ouga
Perenara
Todd
Barrett
Tu'ungafasi
Harris
Tuinukuafe

Of interest:
Mo'unga and Tu'ungafasi the only ones to back up from Japan last week.
Goodhue I assume it will be too soon after glandular fever.
Possible the 2 halfbacks swap roles with TJP starting.

are we saying DMac is the first choice 15 now?
 

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Prediction:

England 9 - New Zealand 48
 

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Maybe, but he doesn’t play there for club, to my mind u need mostly players in their natural position and can play a few out of position if it fits the plan and they have the star quality to warrant it over others, does he have that quality, I’m mixed minds on that if I am honest, think I’ve only heard of one of the 3 you mention, I was under the impression Malins was a 10 at Sarries, could be wrong though.

He has played 12 before though and I think it could be a good project to work on as we are short of test level 12s. In terms of the young 15s Ali Crossdale and Tom Parton were the two 15s for the u20 world cup and Malins is a 10 but has played 15 and has had a lot of praise at Sarries. Obviously they aren't ready yet but it's good that we seem to have some decent talent coming through.
 

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He has played 12 before though and I think it could be a good project to work on as we are short of test level 12s. In terms of the young 15s Ali Crossdale and Tom Parton were the two 15s for the u20 world cup and Malins is a 10 but has played 15 and has had a lot of praise at Sarries. Obviously they aren't ready yet but it's good that we seem to have some decent talent coming through.

Sounds promising, Seen Malins a few times and he’s always look very sharp in attack can’t commenr on D as Sarries were dominant on the occasions I recall, where do u watch the U20 is it televised on sky? I concede your point on 12 heaven forbid we end up with Barrett or Burrell there.
 

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I suspect unchanged side for England, with Underhill in for Curry and Manu in for Ashton.

Full back is a real problem as most have rightly pointed out, and there seems to be no solution. Jones clearly is not interested in the crop of full time 15s in the Prem so that’s that I guess.

Not sure what this England team can do against the ABs. We can’t out muscle them, and we can’t outrun them. I guess kick for territory, pressure at the line out, tackle like wild men in defence, and hope to keep the score board ticking over from the boot. I certainly think drop goals should be making an appearance.

Would be good to see Te’o smash SBW.... again .

My feeling is that this is a game that will be won in the mind. The ABs are a strong side, but they can be cracked mentally. It’s been seen before. They may be no1, but a good chunk of that comes from everyone’s belief that they are, and so it becomes a bit of a self forfilling prophecy. If however we turn them over, weakend as we are, then Ireland do, having already been turned over by SA, almost twice, that psychological edge quickly starts to wain. Hanson knows, and will be deserpate to avoid this with a WC looming, because once people start beating you their belief goes up, yours goes down.

I suspect the ABs to want to smash us and make an example, and quite frankly, I hope our lads find something in them to stop them dead in their tracks, and show them why Twickers is the true home of rugby.

Things have been pretty crappy in these parts of late. So come on boys!!! They said we couldn’t white wash the Aussies in their own back yard, they said we couldn’t win back to back slams, they said we could possibly win 18 in a row, and they said we could never turn over SA weekend just gone. What do they know?!
 
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