[RWC2019][Pool A] Round 4 - Japan vs. Scotland (13/10/2019)

[Leonormous Boozer]

It may well be, although Townsend hasn't gone in for tedious mind games before. I think it is fine to lose respect for a coach if they do this and I think it is no coincidence that both of them are doing it at a time they are presiding over sub-par.

I don't know about Townsend but it's fairly common for coaches to have a dig like this, "they scrum illegally", "they're always offside" and now it's "the refs are shite", and with the refs being shite* I think it's warranted.

*I mean we're talking Peyper, Gardner and Garces here, they're about as poor a list of names you can ask for, Garces is so bad he makes every French ref bad by association...

I hope this is nipped in the bud before it becomes a trend.

Again, I'd rather it continue, within reason (i.e no one calling anyone a cheater or making things personal which neither coach has) and refs get better than everyone being respectful and hush hush for no discernible reason.

 

[General Melchett]

Townsend is about to play Japan, it's obviously in his best interest to highlight them getting favourable calls. How do people not see the thinly veiled messages behind stuff like this?

Alex Ferguson made comments like this for 20+ years and it didn't do him or his team any harm. I don't see Townsend doing the same as regularly but such are the stakes he's chosen the perfect time to play his joker now, not that it will likely make much difference.

 

[TheOvalBall]

Japanese players will be out of gas by QF time, and SA should win easy.

 

[Ferrari333SP]

IDK, the Japan team seem like one of the fittest squads in the tournament, totally adapted to the weather conditions, so I think they'll give South Africa quite a good fight

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Bookies still have Ireland as the most likely pool a winner, wouldn't be talking about a Japan v SA match just yet!

 

[General Melchett]

I read that Japan only conceded six penalties in the whole match against Ireland. That's incredible for a Tier 2 side v one of the top Tier 1 sides. Will try and find out how many they conceded against Samoa and Russia. Will be interesting to see the count on Sunday v Scotland and in the QF assuming they make it there. The stats will speak for themselves but the officials don't seem too harsh towards them.

I can totally see why Townsend had a thinly veiled dig about the crooked scrum feed ahead of Sunday as he's clearly sceptical too.

 

[Leinster Fan]

IDK, the Japan team seem like one of the fittest squads in the tournament, totally adapted to the weather conditions, so I think they'll give South Africa quite a good fight

Getting the best schedule by a mile will help with that in fairness (although being used to the conditions would also help)

On a wider issue, if this was hosted by a Tier 1 team and they had a likely competitive game to decide who went through to finish the pool and their opposition was playing four days beforehand there'd rightfully be widespread outrage. Credit to Japan for their performances so far but it also needs to be recognised that World rugby are doing everything in their power to get them as far through as possible. The scheduling here is straight up wrong and unfair.

 

[Leinster Fan]

At least we can jointly sympathise with our Scottish friends who have to support them every week.



Is it? SA bashed Japan before the world cup and will do so easily again. I'd argue the Japanese public would rather see their team play the ABs in a quarter. NZ v Ireland obviously a big game, but so is SA v Ireland for that matter.

We demolished Japan with a B team twice during the Lions Tour two years ago and look what happened to us, jumping to conclusions based off pre-tournament games is a risky take.

 

[ncurd]

TBF I looked this up before, moving to the 4 group format (2003) every host nation except France have had the advantage in terms of scheduling. Only England ducked it up..

I think it's to be expected and whining about it is just sour grapes.

 

[General Melchett]

TBF I looked this up before, moving to the 4 group format (2003) every host nation except France have had the advantage in terms of scheduling. Only England ducked it up..

I think it's to be expected and whining about it is just sour grapes.

I shouldn't be expected though because at the end of the day it's professional sport and it doesn't happen in the football world cup. Past wrongs don't make it right today. The host nation should get to play the opening game and I have no issue with them cherry picking which stadium(s) they play in but it should end there. World rugby should be impartial and whiter than white but it's becoming obvious that there is a will to get Japan through to the QFs and it's plain wrong.

Ireland and Scotland have both been forced to get badly needed BP wins in the Kobe sweatbox while Japan have not. Townsend is being forced to gamble and hope the second string team can get a BP win tomorrow because he knows a four day turnaround for the first team is too much. Japan have yet to play anyone who had a longer turnaround and have been able to field almost full strength sides for all of their pool games.

 

[ncurd]

Yeah I think grand conspiracy is also nonsence hometown calls by refs is to expected especially when their hosts and by far underdogs.

It's costs host nations a huge amount to put on events like this and if you don't think they'll give their side every advantage in terms of scheduling you are sadly mistaken. Especially in a sport where it matters like rugby.

Nobody whined when tier 1 sides have romped through the group stages the past decade and a half. But everyone moaned last time out when Japan got shafted. Now they get an advantage the entire thing is rubbish? Again utter nonsence.

For the record I'm against 5 team groups for the reason it doesn't lead to even scheduling (and 5th place teams are a waste of space). But I don't kid myself who'd benefit from that system.

 

[Fat_Prick]

Who's favourite to win this one?

 

[Leinster Fan]

TBF I looked this up before, moving to the 4 group format (2003) every host nation except France have had the advantage in terms of scheduling. Only England ducked it up..

I think it's to be expected and whining about it is just sour grapes.

I think it's always been wrong and I've complained about it at past tournaments as well (admittedly not here).

This is our flagship tournament, our most watched event by far, and we're not even trying to make it fair. It's wrong and the fact that it's happened before doesn't make it okay now.

It's not like rugby doesn't have a long and proud history of refs favouring the hosts as well, although in fairness refereeing in general tends to favour home teams all across the sport, it's still not great but I'd agree that it's not a conspiracy.

 

[Brigantine]

Who's favourite to win this one?

There is no favourite. Any other day T1 would be favourite against Japan (unless it's Italy), but we're in uncharted territory now.

My model says Japan 52%, Draw 2.5%, Scotland 46% (incl 3% where Japan get both BPs, and 17% where Japan get 1 BP and Scotland don't)
Stuff says Scotland 54%, Draw 4%, Japan 42%

After Scotland vs Russia and Ireland vs Samoa, we will know what BP outcomes the teams need in order to qualify, and some back room discussions will happen about that.
If Japan gets a penalty at 81' and has a choice between a definite BP and 2nd in Pool, or a coin toss between 1st and 3rd... What would they go for?

 

[Kapa O Pango]

Hoping it will be another cracker of a match.

 

[Every Time Ref]

There is no favourite. Any other day T1 would be favourite against Japan (unless it's Italy), but we're in uncharted territory now.

My model says Japan 52%, Draw 2.5%, Scotland 46% (incl 3% where Japan get both BPs, and 17% where Japan get 1 BP and Scotland don't)
Stuff says Scotland 54%, Draw 4%, Japan 42%

After Scotland vs Russia and Ireland vs Samoa, we will know what BP outcomes the teams need in order to qualify, and some back room discussions will happen about that.
If Japan gets a penalty at 81' and has a choice between a definite BP and 2nd in Pool, or a coin toss between 1st and 3rd... What would they go for?

What's your model?

Edit: also, they'd take 2nd place, 100%. This isn't like Vs SA, all they'll care about us qualifying

 

[ncurd]

What's your model?

@Brigantine has been doing their best to get the TRFie for smartest member through a heavy amount of statistical analysis using world rankings.

https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/rugby-world-cup-2019-predictions.39070/page-29

 

[g6mcg]

Townsend is about to play Japan, it's obviously in his best interest to highlight them getting favourable calls. How do people not see the thinly veiled messages behind stuff like this?

Add naivety to the faults of Scottish rugby.

 

[bushytop]

There it is! Scotland BP win vs Russia... this game us now officially 'lit'!

 

[g6mcg]

Glad we've avoided the damp squid.