[RWC2019][Pool B] Round 3 - South Africa vs. Italy (04/10/2019)

[rugga658]

While I agree it is highly (HIGHLY) unlikely... speaking categorically about events still to happen isn't a great idea.

Bushy we're talking about Italy here They're a Tier 2 team with a Tier 1 Economy

O'Shea gets good press as he's contacts & says all the right things but under him they've been terrible

Took a historically bad Boks team coached by a guy out of his depth in Coetzee to win vs Boks

What chance do they have 3 years later.....
Answer: None

 

[bushytop]

Bushy we're talking about Italy here
They're a Tier 2 team with a Tier 1 Economy

O'Shea gets good press as he's contacts & says all the right things
but under him they've been terrible

Took a historically bad Boks team coached by a guy out of his depth in Coetzee to win vs Boks

What chance do they have 3 years later.....
Answer: None

I get you Rugga... my post was just to 'suggest' you start these kinda comments with 'in my opinion...' or 'I reckon...'... but it's your prerogative bud.

 

[rugga658]

I get you Rugga... my post was just to 'suggest' you start these kinda comments with 'in my opinion...' or 'I reckon...'... but it's your prerogative bud.

I understand where you're coming from, struggle at time to tone down my comments

***Must Filter Comments***

 

[mdaclarke]

Bushy we're talking about Italy here They're a Tier 2 team with a Tier 1 Economy

O'Shea gets good press as he's contacts & says all the right things but under him they've been terrible

Took a historically bad Boks team coached by a guy out of his depth in Coetzee to win vs Boks

What chance do they have 3 years later.....
Answer: None

I note that Stuff say that the Boks have a 95% chance of making the QF. I would put it at more like 90% (Italy win one game out of every ten against the Boks)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby...d-cup-results-changed-the-maths-for-each-team

 

[Brigantine]

Does Italia have any chance of qualifying for QF by eliminating RSA?

Sounds like a job for @Brigantine...

Let me consult the chart over on the predictions thread. Short answer: No. Even if a typhoon cancels the match, still no.

For Italy, 2nd in Pool is outside the whisker. So the chance is less than 2.5%. So it would be at least a level 3 upset.

Looking up the full spreadsheet: Italy's chance is 0.4%, up from 0.3% calculated before the tournament. So actually it would be a level 4 upset even bigger than the Brighton Miracle.
Anything other than a 5 - 0 table point outcome would be a bigger upset than the Brighton Miracle.

Per World Rugby Rankings, South Africa is 13.71 ranking points ahead. That one time Italy beat South Africa, the gap was 12.26, with home advantage taking the mismatch down to 9.26 ranking points. In Japan - Ireland it was 10.41, and Fiji - Uruguay 11.24.

In the rest of Pool B matches, there is a 0.1% chance Italy will get a losing BP off New Zealand, but South Africa will 100% get 10 points out of Namibia and Canada. So whether Italy can qualify and whether they win the South Africa game are the same question.

Except that... there is also a <0.1% chance of a draw in this game, and an even bigger chance of the game being cancelled or abandoned in the first half due to extreme weather. What happens in that situation?
Unless Italy get that LBP vs ABs, Both teams will finish on 12 table points, drawn head to head match... it comes down to points difference vs New Zealand, Namibia, Canada. South Africa is 22 points behind on that score, but they will very likely close that gap in the Canada game.

I note that Stuff say that the Boks have a 95% chance of making the QF. I would put it at more like 90% (Italy win one game out of every ten against the Boks)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby...d-cup-results-changed-the-maths-for-each-team

Stuff have Italy with a 3% chance to beat South Africa. This compares with 7% for Japan to beat Ireland and 4% for Uruguay to beat Fiji, so they're also saying it would be the biggest upset yet. However, they have Italy at 5% for a QF since they give Italy a (1%) chance vs NZ.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

The thrilling unpredictability of Italy's World Cup laid bare in graphic form. I should consider it progress since we almost lost in Canada a few years ago.

I hope to wake up in the morning to incredible news about centres wearing 12 & 13, wingers wearing 11 & 14 and a fullback wearing 15 (I'm confident on that last one since we have three fullbacks!).

 

[User1245]

Jesse's injury is an absolute hammer blow to our chances to win the WC. He is better than Am and could also cover the wing really well in the event of an emergency. Huge loss.

How many have there been now? Off the top of my head:

Gaffie du Toit
Brent Russel
Ruan Pienaar
F Steyn
Patrick Lambie

Trying to think of more.

Percy Montgomery (before he was fixed in Wales)

 

[mdaclarke]

Italy: 15 Matteo Minozzi, 14 Tommaso Benvenuti, 13 Luca Morisi, 12 Jayden Hayward, 11 Michele Campagnaro, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 ***o Tebaldi, 8 Sergio Parisse (captain), 7 Jake Polledri, 6 Braam Steyn, 5 Dean Budd, 4 David Sisi, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Luca Bigi, 1 Andrea Lovotti
Substitutes: 16 Federico Zani, 17 Nicola Quaglio, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Alessandro Zanni, 20 Federico Ruzza, 21 Sebastian Negri, 22 Callum Braley, 23 Carlo Canna

 

[Jer1cho]

Jesse's injury is an absolute hammer blow to our chances to win the WC. He is better than Am and could also cover the wing really well in the event of an emergency. Huge loss.

Percy Montgomery (before he was fixed in Wales)

Oh ja! Otherwise how you dude!? Been a long time!

 

[bushytop]

Jesse's injury is an absolute hammer blow to our chances to win the WC. He is better than Am and could also cover the wing really well in the event of an emergency. Huge loss.

Percy Montgomery (before he was fixed in Wales)

Just send 'em all over here bud!

 

[User1245]

Oh ja! Otherwise how you dude!? Been a long time!

It has man! Been in Oz for a few years now. All is going well.

 

[User1245]

I get that Rassie has his first choice players, he has dropped Marx to the bench, why doesn't he follow through and do the same with Willie, Faf and Mapimpi? I would drop Mapimpi out completely! Starting to lose a bit of faith in the selections to be honest. Also never understood the infatuation with Flouw, the guy is mediocre at best and would rather have taken Marco van Staden to the WC.

I reckon this WC is Flouw's last hurrah for the Boks because you're right, he's not the best we have. But he does have experience and has saved a few games before with his turnover skills.
If it wasn't for his injury, I would have Marcel Coetzee over him. I would have van Staden over Kwagga.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Italy: 15 Matteo Minozzi, 14 Tommaso Benvenuti, 13 Luca Morisi, 12 Jayden Hayward, 11 Michele Campagnaro, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 ***o Tebaldi, 8 Sergio Parisse (captain), 7 Jake Polledri, 6 Braam Steyn, 5 Dean Budd, 4 David Sisi, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Luca Bigi, 1 Andrea Lovotti

Substitutes: 16 Federico Zani, 17 Nicola Quaglio, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Alessandro Zanni, 20 Federico Ruzza, 21 Sebastian Negri, 22 Callum Braley, 23 Carlo Canna

Oh my giddy aunt. Hayden at centre again, Benvenuti and Campagnaro on the wings. So no specialist winger starting, just pepper them with high balls.

Baffled once again. The guys have never played together in this sort of configuration so I can predict no tries being scored.

Ruzza possibly our only world class forward is on the bench and only two backs sitting there with him. Both of which are halfbacks so the out of position backs must all play for 80mins?

Someone help me comprehend!

Italy 6 - 40 Boks

 

[bushytop]

Oh my giddy aunt. Hayden at centre again, Benvenuti and Campagnaro on the wings. So no specialist winger starting, just pepper them with high balls.

Baffled once again. The guys have never played together in this sort of configuration so I can predict no tries being scored.

Ruzza possibly our only world class forward is on the bench and only two backs sitting there with him. Both of which are halfbacks so the out of position backs must all play for 80mins?

Someone help me comprehend!

Italy 6 - 40 Boks

Classic case of a coach wanting 'his' best fifteen on the park regardless of position... rarely if ever works neither.

 

[Leinster Fan]

Has Hayward ever played 12 before? Either way this is ridiculous, if you want him in the team so much play him at fullback and stick Minozzi on the wing. If he's sure he wants Minozzi at fullback (which is probably the right call) then drop Hayward. I like Conor but this is dumb.

Wasting your best player by playing him out of position on the wing is ridiculous as well. Campagnaro is as good as any other 13 at the tournament on his day, but this is both likely to hurt his overall performance and limit any influence he does have.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Aye, playing Campagnero out of position is such a waste of his talent.

 

[mdaclarke]

Oh my giddy aunt. Hayden at centre again, Benvenuti and Campagnaro on the wings. So no specialist winger starting, just pepper them with high balls.

Baffled once again. The guys have never played together in this sort of configuration so I can predict no tries being scored.

Ruzza possibly our only world class forward is on the bench and only two backs sitting there with him. Both of which are halfbacks so the out of position backs must all play for 80mins?

Someone help me comprehend!

Italy 6 - 40 Boks

I wonder if Italy are planning some tricks for the Boks, like they did with England in 2017. I assume Rassie would have prepared for any tricks by the Italians

 

[BPM]

Oh my giddy aunt. Hayden at centre again, Benvenuti and Campagnaro on the wings. So no specialist winger starting, just pepper them with high balls.

Baffled once again. The guys have never played together in this sort of configuration so I can predict no tries being scored.

Ruzza possibly our only world class forward is on the bench and only two backs sitting there with him. Both of which are halfbacks so the out of position backs must all play for 80mins?

Someone help me comprehend!

Italy 6 - 40 Boks

I understand your confusion. It makes no sense.

Ruzza has lots of potential but is nowhere close to being a world class forward at the moment IMO. Still, if I were picking the Italian side, he'd be one of the first names on the team sheet.

Negri is unlucky too. He's typically on of Italy's best players. I can understand why Parisse is in the side, but I think there is an argument that Negri, Polledri and Steyn are your best back row.

 

[Leinster Fan]

Negri is unlucky too. He's typically on of Italy's best players. I can understand why Parisse is in the side, but I think there is an argument that Negri, Polledri and Steyn are your best back row.

I understand that Parisse is captain and a legend, but there's no universe where he's still in Italy's best team. Been more of a hindrance than a help for a while now.

 

[donmcdazzle]

Has Hayward ever played 12 before? Either way this is ridiculous, if you want him in the team so much play him at fullback and stick Minozzi on the wing. If he's sure he wants Minozzi at fullback (which is probably the right call) then drop Hayward. I like Conor but this is dumb.

Wasting your best player by playing him out of position on the wing is ridiculous as well. Campagnaro is as good as any other 13 at the tournament on his day, but this is both likely to hurt his overall performance and limit any influence he does have.

From memory, he spent the majority of his career in NZ playing in the centres (may have even played some at 10). When I saw him at 15 for Italy I immediately wondered why the hell they were playing him out of position!