[RWC2019][Semi-Final 2] Wales vs. South Africa (27/10/2019)

[TRF_heineken]

Venue: International Stadium Yokohama
Time: 11:00 CAT (SA, GMT+2)​

 

[TommiG88]

This will be a blood bath, with SA edging it. I also doubt this will be a high scoring game.

 

[dullonien]

Not at all confident for this one. Don't think our forwards are physical enough, and our backline is misfiring big time, both in attack and defense.

I think Wales need to make a couple of changes. I think Parkes is done and if Fox is fit as expected I'd shift Watkin into 12 to partner him. I'd be tempted to start Patchell, but I doubt Gats will. Up front our props are struggling to have any impact around the field. We're missing an in form Rob Evans, but maybe Gats gambles with Carre? I'd be worried about our scrum though. If Navidi is crocked, Moriarty comes in and Cubby on the bench?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I remember watching the QF between these two in a pub in Cardiff Just before going to the NZ v France game. It'll be tight one I think. Wales have become more belligerent since 2015 and I don't think they would concede that try at the end this time around. Well they shouldn't as Cuthbert isn't playing.

I do think Davies would be a big miss if he doesn't make it. Wales midfield missed him big time v France. But knee injuries aren't really types to get over in a week and fully recover from.

I would still make SA favourites for this one though.

 

[mdaclarke]

I think SA will be too powerful for Wales.

SA by 8

However would not be surprised to see Wales win.

 

[ForumWhore]

Wales to win. No idea how they'll win it because they're not playing anywhere near as well as SA are, but they'll win it.

 

[saulan]

After watching the two quarterfinals back to back, it seemed that the two teams played similar strategies, just the Springboks did it better. Wales were playing a territory kicking game but weren't nullifying the French flair in the backline, with tries coming through opportunistically. Springboks played a territory kicking game and nullified Japan's attack by constantly rushing or smashing players behind the gainline. We were constantly gaining territory on defense. Our tries came from counter-attacks and set-pieces.

What will be concerning for the Welsh is scoring points against us. We have let in three tries so far this World Cup, and two of those were within five minutes against the All Blacks. Wales looked a bit sterile in attack against France and will likely struggle to cross the whitewash.

I've noticed in many of the Springbok games so far, teams start with trying to catch our rush defense off-guard by chipping across to the opposite wing in the first few minutes, but then the teams drop the tactic for the rest of the game. The All Blacks did it the most effectively, but even they weren't able to gain any points from this method.

Basically I believe Dan Biggar's boot will be key for Wales.

 

[Jer1cho]

Gonna be interesting. First time Rassie gets to play Wales with a full team, and a fresh one at that. Wales haven't looked convincing yet, and we hit a tad harder than Fiji, while also defending waaaay better. Gatland has had our number for a while though, and he is gonna know exactly how to nullify the power game. Willie le Poo is gonna be bombarded by an aerial assault and I think Mapimpi will be targeted as well. Discipline will be everything in this game.

Too hard to call but I am quietly confident.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I dont think this is all that much more difficult for Wales than the Wallabies and France matchups, but if JD2 doesn't play then I make them significant underdogs, assuming Biggar starts.

North seems out of gas, but his physicality might make him a reasonable selection here.

Boks with their wingers have a happy habit of getting one or two tries a game. Honestly, two tries against Wales would probably be enough given the way Gatland appears to be reverting to type a bit.

 

[Every Time Ref]

My prediction: 3-3 with both teams getting 30% possession. 40% of the time the ball will be in the air.

Extra time both teams will stand inside their own 22 kicking to each other for 20 mins.

Wales will win the DG shoot out.

 

[MikeTheNative]

Wales have been really struggling against teams playing with tempo and getting the ball out into the wider channels, they do tend to defend better with big men running at them. I still think SA will win mind, you would expect them to play a bit more ball in hand than the Japan game.

 

[donmcdazzle]

I dont think this is all that much more difficult for Wales than the Wallabies and France matchups, but if JD2 doesn't play then I make them significant underdogs, assuming Biggar starts.

North seems out of gas, but his physicality might make him a reasonable selection here.

Boks with their wingers have a happy habit of getting one or two tries a game. Honestly, two tries against Wales would probably be enough given the way Gatland appears to be reverting to type a bit.

I respectfully disagree with that point. The boks play almost the opposite style to Aussie. Aus runs everything, the boks kick everything. France were every chance of the winning the game if not for the red card as well (and almost did win in any case).

How are Wales going to score points? That would be my main query. Playing one off the ruck and hoping for penalties is not a sustainable tactic against a team with a better set piece and better defence. I have seen zero from Wales to suggest they'll be able to test the boks defence. Japan have a pretty sharp attack, and they were largely blunted.

SA also looked pretty average on attack, but their set piece and defence should get them through again. They desperately need to get Kolbe involved more though if they want to get a try or two.

 

[TRF_heineken]

My prediction: 3-3 with both teams getting 30% possession. 40% of the time the ball will be in the air.

Extra time both teams will stand inside their own 22 kicking to each other for 20 mins.

Wales will win the DG shoot out.

Will they? Who will do the DG's should Biggar go off again for a concussion?

SA will have Pollard and Frans Steyn to do the DG if the same team plays that played against Japan.

I think the Boks forwards are going to try and get the upper hand and try and bash it up as much as possible. But with that said, I wouldn't be surprized if a guy like RG Snyman gets promoted to the starting 15, just to add a bit of spice.

Based on the few games I watched, Wales have a tendency to be good at one area, but then lack in another area. And 2 areas where the Boks need to focus on, is the areas around the rucks, where Wales have dropped a lot of tackles, and this includes Biggar's channel, who has been bumped off quite a few times in this WC. The other area is the very wide channels, where there wingers at times, are a bit slow off the mark.

 

[ncurd]

Honestly with the playing styles of both sides coupled with running a half marathon during the match I think I'll just read the score and match thread for this one.

SA to edge it for me as they offer at least something in attack I think the scoreline will struggle to break double figures...if either team scores above 20 it will be SA.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

This is the first genuine 50/50 game of the tournament in my opinion. (obviously there's been upsets) I think this will come down to the bounce of the ball or a scrum penalty that can go either way... And that means it's advantage Wales as they've been getting those breaks for years!

I don't know how much use it is examining Wales' previous performances because I've thought they'd fall short about 5 times in the past 18 months and they continue to nick wins or hammer Ireland (who doesn't) by frustrating the life out of their opposition. I don't think it's NZ beating rugby, they're too cute for that sort of stuff but I can definitely see it ending the Boks dreams on Saturday.

But then SA have been winning and looking far better than Wales doing it which can't be said about the other teams Wales have won big against recently.

Not going to try to call this one anyway, not going to set an alarm for it either, I echo others in thinking it won't be an aesthetically pleasing match... But sure that's only a negative to the neutral!

 

[Kapa O Pango]

If the Boks are clinical with their finishing, with all those tries and opportunities left out against the Japan. I see the Boks doing well.

 

[Reiser99]

Watching the 2015 highlights, North looked so much better then. He's no where near the player he was. I think S.A are playing better and have more in their arsenal. Wales didn't look like scoring in open play and the S.A defence at full compliment should be able to cope with them.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I respectfully disagree with that point. The boks play almost the opposite style to Aussie. Aus runs everything, the boks kick everything. France were every chance of the winning the game if not for the red card as well (and almost did win in any case).

How are Wales going to score points? That would be my main query. Playing one off the ruck and hoping for penalties is not a sustainable tactic against a team with a better set piece and better defence. I have seen zero from Wales to suggest they'll be able to test the boks defence. Japan have a pretty sharp attack, and they were largely blunted.

SA also looked pretty average on attack, but their set piece and defence should get them through again. They desperately need to get Kolbe involved more though if they want to get a try or two.

Yes, the Boks kick it. But the Welsh backs can handle that all day long. If it turns into aerial ping-pong then I would give Wales an edge, as Pollard, Willie and Faf are not overly consistent at that style of play. Plus Wales would have the sense and ability to tackle the Bok lineout if Marx is throwing (which Japan failed to do, probably because they were understandably terrified of the rolling maul and focussed on defending that).

To put my comment in context, France outplayed Wales for long periods, but Wales hung in there. Australia also looked the better team in the second half against them and I think the Boks will look superior. I just rate Framce and Australia a bit more highly than most relative to the Boks. Nobody seems to get maximum efficiency out of a team quite like Gatland in a big game, so I think the Boks will probably win, but won't boss it.

 

[MikeTheNative]

Praying that Navadi and JD2 are fit, North has been poor most of the tournament and I would drop him for Halfpenny on the wing, Parkes too has been poor and I would start Watkin at 12. Biggar has struggled to get this back line going but, I would keep him starting and just try to kick SA to death with Liam Williams and Halfpenny in the back 3. Give Patrchel the last 20 minutes though when the game opens up a bit.
My selection:
L Williams, Halfpenny, JD2, Watkin, Adams, Biggar, G Davies, Wyn Jones, Owens, Francis, Jones, Ball, Wainwright, Tipruic, Navidi
Bench : Dee, Carre, Lewis, Beard, Shignler, T Williams, Patchell, Parkes

 

[Yoshimitsu]

Mike, Bad news old chap. Navidi is definitely gone.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50123273