Melhor Time
Bench Player
- Joined
- May 5, 2007
- Messages
- 801
My RWC Preview for South Africa is online: <!-- m -->http://www.rugbymania.com.br/2009/ver_noticia08.asp?codigo=4427<!-- m -->
It was written before the start of the 3N.
Match Schedule
September 11 South Africa vs Wales, Wellington
September 17 South Africa vs Fiji, Wellington
September 22 South Africa vs Namibia, North Harbour
September 30 South Africa vs Samoa, North Harbour
Suggested XV
15 François Steyn (Racing Metro, France)
14 Gio Aplon (Stormers)
13 Jaque Fourie (Stormers)
12 Wynand Olivier (Bulls)
11 Bryan Habana (Stormers)
10 Ruan Pienaar (Ulster, Ireland)
9 Fourie du Preez (Bulls)
8 Pierre Spies (Bulls)
7 Schalk Burger (Stormers)
6 Heinrich Brussouw (Cheetahs)
5 Victor Matfield captain (Bulls)
4 Bakkies Botha (Toulon, France)
3 CJ van der Linde (Stormers)
2 Bismarck du Plessis (Sharks)
1 Tendai Mtawarira (Sharks)
Reserves
16 John Smit (Sharks)
17 Gurthro Steenkamp (Bulls)
18 Flip van der Merwe (Bulls)
19 Juan Smith (Cheetahs)
20 François Hougard (Bulls)
21 Elton Janjies (Lions)
22 JP Pietersen (Sharks)
Additional Squad members: 23 Mahlaste Ralapelle (Bulls), 24 Jannie du Plessis (Sharks), 25 Andries Becker (Stormers), 26 Ryan Kankowski (Sharks), 27 Ashley Johnson (Cheetahs), 28 Jean de Villiers (Stormers), 29 Juan de Jongh (Stormers), 30 Lwazi Mvovo (Sharks)
Can the current World Champions defend their ***le? Yes.
South Africa has the best professional league in the Southern Hemisphere. It is better than the ITM Cup in New Zealand and, in my opinion, is the third best on the planet - after the Top 14 and Aviva Premiership. There are 14 teams in total with eight in the first divison and six in the second. This will, however change for 2012. South Africa also has five teams in Super Rugby: the Bulls, Cheetahs, Lions, Sharks and Stormers. In the history of Super Rugby, the South African teams have won four ***les. with the Lions winning the first ***le in 1993 (when it was still the Super 10) and the Bulls lifted the trophy in 2007, 2009 and 2010 (when it was the Super 14). Only New Zealand´s Crusaders have won the ***le more times than the BUlls. The Sharks have lost the final three times and the Stormers once. So, are die Bokke going to win the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand? No.
The Springboks are one of the best teams in the world. They have won the Rugby World Cup four times and have defeated every major rival in the years since 2007. It is an impressive record, but there is a crucial problem with it - the age of the team. The coach, Peter DeVilliers, opted to continue will almost the asme team from France 2007. With this, there are three elementary problems. The first is that the national team has not made the necessary changes to maintain its level of four years ago. The second is the domestic policy of having a quota of coloured (black) players in the team. The third is that South Africa´s style of play is nto to play attacking rugby, but rather to dominate uip front with forwards to then score points via the teams flyhalf, Morne Steyn. It worked well in 2008 and 2009, but when the dominance of the forwards ended in 2010, the game plan didn´t change with it. This year, in Super Rugby and the Tri Nations, the same situation has been highly evident with the Springboks at international level and the Bulls in Super Rugby. The Bulls lost various matches with its startign players who are first choice Springboks appearing old.
The stars including Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha are not dominating opponents any longer, depiste still being outstanding players. Matfield is 34 and Botha will turn 32 during the World Cup. The major issue with this is that the alternative players don´t play enough rugby for at international level. Matfield and Botha start for the Bulls with Flip van der Merwe and Danie Roussouw both amongst the reserves; both players are secondrowers with huge chances of making the squad for New Zealand 2011. The captain, John Smit, clearly is not the best South Africa hooker and should not be in the starting XV. But considering he has already been named as captain he will, if fit, be in the starting lineup. Smit can play prop as well as hooker but if this were the case the problem would be identical because there are better players avaliable in this position. Smit is still a great player, but at 33 he is not the same as fhe was in 2007 and is not the best from South Africa. The best hooker is Bismarck Du Plessis. Following logic, the captain should be Matfield with Smit, at best, on the bench.
A lot will depend on who de Villiers takes to the World Cup. In order to have more chances of winning he should make good use of the timee avaliable to him before September. England has done this with Toby Flood playing in place of Johnny Wilkinson, France hase chosen Picamoles in palce of Chabal and Wales has done the same thing with James Hook over Stephen Jones. South Africa really needs to change a lot but it won´t. The Springboks have to make a big change in the backrow. They cannot play without a specialist fetcher (openside flanker). Schalk Burger should play in the backrow but as the blindside flanker with Heinrich Brüssouw playing on the openside - keeping in mind that in South Africa numbers 6 and 7 are the opposite of what is used in most other cases. In other words, Brüssouw should play in the 6 shirt and Burger in the 7. This change would be highly postive for the Spingboks and would speed up their game.
The flyhalf, Morne Steyn cannot play in the South Africa 10 shirt at the World Cup. he doesn´t offer anything for his team aside from kicking for the posts. There are better options including Ruan Pienaar, François Steyn, Elton Jantjies, Peter Grant, Patrick Lambie and Butch James. The World Cup is all that matters and thus South Africa should have a vastly different lineup with Piennar playing flyhalf and Elton Jantjies also included in the group. Jantjies is included based on ability. By coincidence he is black. There are many people who do not want to see him included in the squad for New Zealand 2011 based on his kicking abilities which are considered as being too weak for him to be an international goalkicker. Its true that he is not the best South African for goalkicking but François Trinh-Duc (France) has similar difficulties and clearly is the best French, and European, flyhalf. France´s solution is simply to play a goalkicking scrumhalf such as Morgan Parra or Dimitri Yachivili and have the player wearing 9 kick goals. The Springboks would do the same thing because Piennar (scrumhalf) and François Steyn (fullback) both kick very well. The trio of Jantjies, Piennar and François Steyn offer much more for South Africa on attack than Morne Steyn. In Rugby World Cup 2007, the team was world champion with a fullback, Percy Montgomery, kicking goals and Argentina was third with its inside centre, Felipe Contepomi, doing the goalkicking.
In total, my list of 30 players has 10 players considered as not being white. South Africa´s political issue is indeed very complicated. it is not easy to understand, but the fact is that a person considered to be brown in Brazil may not bee considered the same in South Africa. In Brazil, winger Bryan Habana would be considered almost white but in South Africa it is different. Politics dictates that there is a quota of “non-whitesâ€. In my suggested XV, three of the starting lineup are considered non-white as are three others on the reserves bench. None of them have been included because of color. All ahppen to be amazing players. All four wingers in the squad of 30 are non-white with Gio Aplon and Bryan Habana being in the starting XV as wingers, JP Pietersen on the bench and Lwazi Mvovo also in the squad. Other backs considered non-white are Elton Jantjies (flyhalf) and Juan de Jongh (centre) and there are four forwards with Tendai Mtawarira selected at loosehead prop, Gurthrö Steenkamp on the bench and the pair of Mahlaste Ralepelle and Ashley Johnson amonst the additional squad members.
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Between Rugby World Cup 2007 and the beginning of 2011, South Africa played a total of 39 international matches for 25 victories and 14 loses. This record of 64% success is impressive, but in 2010 the Springboks played 14 matcehs for 8 wins and 6 loses, i.e. a success rate of 57%, which is significantly lower than in 2008 and 2009. Moreover, it does not show the reality, considering that two of the wins were in South Africa against Italy. There is no other way of putting it: in 2010 Suoth Africa had a terrible year. The Boks lost to Scotland, lost four games in a row in the Tri Nations and defeeatedf Ireland by only 2 points and Wales by 3 points in one match and 4 in the other. It was the same team that in 2009 was the Tri Nations champion and was too strong for the Lions (Scotland, England, Ireland and Wales combined) in winning two of the three matches. Clearly, problems appeared in 2010 that were not known in 2008 or 2009. The largest of which beign the age of the players. The players didn´t have the same quality as that from 2007 and in general the alternative players went untried and untested.
Of the four teams South Africa will face in New Zealand 2011, the Boks have only faced Wales since France 2007. There have been six matches between the sides with South Africa winning all of them. In total there have been 25 matches between South Africa and Wales in historty with 23 victories for South Africa, one for Wales and one draw. The only Welsh victory was in 1999 and the draw was in 1970. South Africa qualified for the World Cup semi-finals in 2007 after defeating Fiji in a highly competitive encounter. The major embarrasment for the IRB (International Rugby Board) is that it was only the second match ever between thwe two countries. The other game took place in 1996 and also result in a victory gfor the men in green. South Africa has played six matches against Samoa and has won every time. The msot competitive game occured in 1995 as part of the Rugby World Cup with the Springbkos winning 42-14. Despite being neighbours and having a connected history through colonization, there has only been one match between South Africa and Namibia ever. It took place in 2007 with South Africn winning by 105-13.
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The prediction is that South Africa could go far in the World Cup but will not be champion. It is going to go down as a failure due to the aged players, tactical problems and having the wrong players on the field. but in any event, South Africa should go through the pool stage undefeated. The only tough match will be against Wales, but the Africans should win by a scoreline along the lines of 32-20. This would mena South Africa would qualify for the Quarter Finals as Pool D winner and would have a complicated match against the second best side from Pool C (Australia, Ireland, Italy, Russia and the United States of America) which will probably be Ireland. I´d like to suggest that Ireland could defeat South Africa and thus eliminate the Springboks. If Ireland were to win its group then South Africa would face Australia in the Quarter Finals and would have the same fate - a Quarter Finals exit.
It was written before the start of the 3N.
Match Schedule
September 11 South Africa vs Wales, Wellington
September 17 South Africa vs Fiji, Wellington
September 22 South Africa vs Namibia, North Harbour
September 30 South Africa vs Samoa, North Harbour
Suggested XV
15 François Steyn (Racing Metro, France)
14 Gio Aplon (Stormers)
13 Jaque Fourie (Stormers)
12 Wynand Olivier (Bulls)
11 Bryan Habana (Stormers)
10 Ruan Pienaar (Ulster, Ireland)
9 Fourie du Preez (Bulls)
8 Pierre Spies (Bulls)
7 Schalk Burger (Stormers)
6 Heinrich Brussouw (Cheetahs)
5 Victor Matfield captain (Bulls)
4 Bakkies Botha (Toulon, France)
3 CJ van der Linde (Stormers)
2 Bismarck du Plessis (Sharks)
1 Tendai Mtawarira (Sharks)
Reserves
16 John Smit (Sharks)
17 Gurthro Steenkamp (Bulls)
18 Flip van der Merwe (Bulls)
19 Juan Smith (Cheetahs)
20 François Hougard (Bulls)
21 Elton Janjies (Lions)
22 JP Pietersen (Sharks)
Additional Squad members: 23 Mahlaste Ralapelle (Bulls), 24 Jannie du Plessis (Sharks), 25 Andries Becker (Stormers), 26 Ryan Kankowski (Sharks), 27 Ashley Johnson (Cheetahs), 28 Jean de Villiers (Stormers), 29 Juan de Jongh (Stormers), 30 Lwazi Mvovo (Sharks)
Can the current World Champions defend their ***le? Yes.
South Africa has the best professional league in the Southern Hemisphere. It is better than the ITM Cup in New Zealand and, in my opinion, is the third best on the planet - after the Top 14 and Aviva Premiership. There are 14 teams in total with eight in the first divison and six in the second. This will, however change for 2012. South Africa also has five teams in Super Rugby: the Bulls, Cheetahs, Lions, Sharks and Stormers. In the history of Super Rugby, the South African teams have won four ***les. with the Lions winning the first ***le in 1993 (when it was still the Super 10) and the Bulls lifted the trophy in 2007, 2009 and 2010 (when it was the Super 14). Only New Zealand´s Crusaders have won the ***le more times than the BUlls. The Sharks have lost the final three times and the Stormers once. So, are die Bokke going to win the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand? No.
The Springboks are one of the best teams in the world. They have won the Rugby World Cup four times and have defeated every major rival in the years since 2007. It is an impressive record, but there is a crucial problem with it - the age of the team. The coach, Peter DeVilliers, opted to continue will almost the asme team from France 2007. With this, there are three elementary problems. The first is that the national team has not made the necessary changes to maintain its level of four years ago. The second is the domestic policy of having a quota of coloured (black) players in the team. The third is that South Africa´s style of play is nto to play attacking rugby, but rather to dominate uip front with forwards to then score points via the teams flyhalf, Morne Steyn. It worked well in 2008 and 2009, but when the dominance of the forwards ended in 2010, the game plan didn´t change with it. This year, in Super Rugby and the Tri Nations, the same situation has been highly evident with the Springboks at international level and the Bulls in Super Rugby. The Bulls lost various matches with its startign players who are first choice Springboks appearing old.
The stars including Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha are not dominating opponents any longer, depiste still being outstanding players. Matfield is 34 and Botha will turn 32 during the World Cup. The major issue with this is that the alternative players don´t play enough rugby for at international level. Matfield and Botha start for the Bulls with Flip van der Merwe and Danie Roussouw both amongst the reserves; both players are secondrowers with huge chances of making the squad for New Zealand 2011. The captain, John Smit, clearly is not the best South Africa hooker and should not be in the starting XV. But considering he has already been named as captain he will, if fit, be in the starting lineup. Smit can play prop as well as hooker but if this were the case the problem would be identical because there are better players avaliable in this position. Smit is still a great player, but at 33 he is not the same as fhe was in 2007 and is not the best from South Africa. The best hooker is Bismarck Du Plessis. Following logic, the captain should be Matfield with Smit, at best, on the bench.
A lot will depend on who de Villiers takes to the World Cup. In order to have more chances of winning he should make good use of the timee avaliable to him before September. England has done this with Toby Flood playing in place of Johnny Wilkinson, France hase chosen Picamoles in palce of Chabal and Wales has done the same thing with James Hook over Stephen Jones. South Africa really needs to change a lot but it won´t. The Springboks have to make a big change in the backrow. They cannot play without a specialist fetcher (openside flanker). Schalk Burger should play in the backrow but as the blindside flanker with Heinrich Brüssouw playing on the openside - keeping in mind that in South Africa numbers 6 and 7 are the opposite of what is used in most other cases. In other words, Brüssouw should play in the 6 shirt and Burger in the 7. This change would be highly postive for the Spingboks and would speed up their game.
The flyhalf, Morne Steyn cannot play in the South Africa 10 shirt at the World Cup. he doesn´t offer anything for his team aside from kicking for the posts. There are better options including Ruan Pienaar, François Steyn, Elton Jantjies, Peter Grant, Patrick Lambie and Butch James. The World Cup is all that matters and thus South Africa should have a vastly different lineup with Piennar playing flyhalf and Elton Jantjies also included in the group. Jantjies is included based on ability. By coincidence he is black. There are many people who do not want to see him included in the squad for New Zealand 2011 based on his kicking abilities which are considered as being too weak for him to be an international goalkicker. Its true that he is not the best South African for goalkicking but François Trinh-Duc (France) has similar difficulties and clearly is the best French, and European, flyhalf. France´s solution is simply to play a goalkicking scrumhalf such as Morgan Parra or Dimitri Yachivili and have the player wearing 9 kick goals. The Springboks would do the same thing because Piennar (scrumhalf) and François Steyn (fullback) both kick very well. The trio of Jantjies, Piennar and François Steyn offer much more for South Africa on attack than Morne Steyn. In Rugby World Cup 2007, the team was world champion with a fullback, Percy Montgomery, kicking goals and Argentina was third with its inside centre, Felipe Contepomi, doing the goalkicking.
In total, my list of 30 players has 10 players considered as not being white. South Africa´s political issue is indeed very complicated. it is not easy to understand, but the fact is that a person considered to be brown in Brazil may not bee considered the same in South Africa. In Brazil, winger Bryan Habana would be considered almost white but in South Africa it is different. Politics dictates that there is a quota of “non-whitesâ€. In my suggested XV, three of the starting lineup are considered non-white as are three others on the reserves bench. None of them have been included because of color. All ahppen to be amazing players. All four wingers in the squad of 30 are non-white with Gio Aplon and Bryan Habana being in the starting XV as wingers, JP Pietersen on the bench and Lwazi Mvovo also in the squad. Other backs considered non-white are Elton Jantjies (flyhalf) and Juan de Jongh (centre) and there are four forwards with Tendai Mtawarira selected at loosehead prop, Gurthrö Steenkamp on the bench and the pair of Mahlaste Ralepelle and Ashley Johnson amonst the additional squad members.
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Between Rugby World Cup 2007 and the beginning of 2011, South Africa played a total of 39 international matches for 25 victories and 14 loses. This record of 64% success is impressive, but in 2010 the Springboks played 14 matcehs for 8 wins and 6 loses, i.e. a success rate of 57%, which is significantly lower than in 2008 and 2009. Moreover, it does not show the reality, considering that two of the wins were in South Africa against Italy. There is no other way of putting it: in 2010 Suoth Africa had a terrible year. The Boks lost to Scotland, lost four games in a row in the Tri Nations and defeeatedf Ireland by only 2 points and Wales by 3 points in one match and 4 in the other. It was the same team that in 2009 was the Tri Nations champion and was too strong for the Lions (Scotland, England, Ireland and Wales combined) in winning two of the three matches. Clearly, problems appeared in 2010 that were not known in 2008 or 2009. The largest of which beign the age of the players. The players didn´t have the same quality as that from 2007 and in general the alternative players went untried and untested.
Of the four teams South Africa will face in New Zealand 2011, the Boks have only faced Wales since France 2007. There have been six matches between the sides with South Africa winning all of them. In total there have been 25 matches between South Africa and Wales in historty with 23 victories for South Africa, one for Wales and one draw. The only Welsh victory was in 1999 and the draw was in 1970. South Africa qualified for the World Cup semi-finals in 2007 after defeating Fiji in a highly competitive encounter. The major embarrasment for the IRB (International Rugby Board) is that it was only the second match ever between thwe two countries. The other game took place in 1996 and also result in a victory gfor the men in green. South Africa has played six matches against Samoa and has won every time. The msot competitive game occured in 1995 as part of the Rugby World Cup with the Springbkos winning 42-14. Despite being neighbours and having a connected history through colonization, there has only been one match between South Africa and Namibia ever. It took place in 2007 with South Africn winning by 105-13.
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The prediction is that South Africa could go far in the World Cup but will not be champion. It is going to go down as a failure due to the aged players, tactical problems and having the wrong players on the field. but in any event, South Africa should go through the pool stage undefeated. The only tough match will be against Wales, but the Africans should win by a scoreline along the lines of 32-20. This would mena South Africa would qualify for the Quarter Finals as Pool D winner and would have a complicated match against the second best side from Pool C (Australia, Ireland, Italy, Russia and the United States of America) which will probably be Ireland. I´d like to suggest that Ireland could defeat South Africa and thus eliminate the Springboks. If Ireland were to win its group then South Africa would face Australia in the Quarter Finals and would have the same fate - a Quarter Finals exit.
