South Africa vs Ireland - 3 Tests - June 2016

[Amiga500]

Healy? He's a turnstile who's effective against Pro 12 defences, not an international player.

Dave Kearney is also broadly equally inept defensively - who consistently makes mis-reads and steps out of alignment.

Only he offers very little going forward either.

Barely a Pro12 level player!

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Jannes Kirsten

Yeah look, all these guys are going to list a team they'd like to see. And most of us will agree with most of the selections they make, with the odd bad pick here and there (Scarra Ntubeni).

But I think it's a bit premature to list a team before the coach even announced the training squad on Saturday evening.

A lot can still happen, some of these guys can get injured and then what's the point.

Sure but its lekker to speculate. And I think its possible to do so to an extent:

Beast
Nyakane
Malherbe
All are just about certainties. Then either Redelinghuys or Marcel van der Merwe I expect.

Strauss, also probably the best bet for captaincy
2nd spot will be interesting. Armand van der Merwe adds the most off of the bench, Malcolm Marx is all but assured to be a Bok but its probably too erly for him right now. Will we see Bismarck? i'm not particularly thrilled at the possible prospect of Ntubeni for the Bokke. His line-out work is a tad suspect.

Etzebeth
De Jager
Du Toit
Pretty much pick themselves though Mostert and Snyman are pushing hard indeed.

In the loosies we might see a big change. I would be surprised if more than one of Burger, Vermeulen, Louw and Alberts gets the nod. Marcel Coetzee will be out injured so we'll probably see the likes of Kriel, Whiteley and Kolisi. Kirsten and Du Preez also well able.

?
Faf probably the best and its proably between him and what's-his-name since Reinach is out and Hougard is with the 7s.

Lambie
Who ever isn't injured. Pity about Jantjies but Lanbie seems a man posessed. With Jantjies and Pollard out we might see the return of
Steyn or Goosen. April is a ong shot and if he can show early season form it might not be too late for Du Preez to stake a claim assuming he gets game and picks it up off the bat lke Lambie has.

Center will be interesting. If De Allende and Kriel have been the 12 and 13 of last year then sure but Serfontein and Mapoe have been the form SA 12 and 13 not forgetting Venter and even Esterhuizen. Frans Steyn is also still around. But who to pick. Kriel is an obvious pick even if he might end up donning the no.23 jersey to cover fullback as well since Lambie will surely only be considered at 10 and as 1st choice.

On the wing I like Combrinck. Hougaard could've been an option. Habana? JPP probably, particularly with the abundance of options at center now he will probably only be considered on the wing. Mapoe or De Allende on the wing? Otherwise Mvovo for me.

Le Roux
Kriel

 

[munstermuffin]

Lads this could be an awful hammering. I don't know who's to blame. But you could pick a 15 out of that squad that would do poor in Pro12 never mind international rugby.
I think while Schmidt is there a few will never get fair crack as they probably don't fit and it's not provincal bias as it's across board. Henry and TOD overlooked for Reidy, Gilroy or Healy not going, Ringrose and McCloskey out. We aren't building for any future by even bringing these guys to experience tour environment.
And fact we've more imports than guys born in most coties in Ireland is scary too.

 

[munstermuffin]

Dave Kearney is also broadly equally inept defensively - who consistently makes mis-reads and steps out of alignment.

Only he offers very little going forward either.

Barely a Pro12 level player!

Mu biggest gripe with Kearney has good areas but the main areas of a winger he is poor in.
He's good in tight beating a man. But hasnt pace, scoring ability or vision as a winger. He's poor as a winger defensively at times but not a poor defender if that makes sense. I've wondered in past though how he'd get on at centre to simply as he is good in tight areas beating 1st man

 

[profitius]

Lets not beat around the bush here. Schmidt is a ***** selector.


He is turning me off the international team with his selection of foreigners. Keep packing em in Schmidt and watch the fans disappear because people are talking about it and most are not pleased already. Adding a journeyman like Quinn Roux isn't going to win too many over. And thats before the ***** style of rugby Ireland play!


Sorry for the rant but

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Dave Kearney is also broadly equally inept defensively - who consistently makes mis-reads and steps out of alignment.

Only he offers very little going forward either.

Barely a Pro12 level player!

Kearney can tackle therefore is more suited to international rugby than Healy. Earls and Fitzgerald are the starters anyway and neither of them are the sort you'd match with Healy.

Kearney on form is an international winger, Healy would make a fun barbarian.

Reidy is a shocking decision, he's arguably the weakest link in the weakest back row in the country, TO'D really should be in there and the injury list at back row is horrifying.

 

[Groundhog]

O'Donnell may be out because his wedding is scheduled for when the tour's on

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Shame about Ringrose not making it.

 

[Peat]

He could very safely take one of Healy or Gilroy and try working on their defence and still have three secure wingers by leaving one of Kearney and Trimble at home.

Heck, leave one of them at home and take one of the extra centres to get continued squad experience. If McCloskey and Ringrose aren't talented internationals of the future, something's gone badly wrong with the coaching. Can't say McCloskey's doing it at the moment for me but keep working on him. Or Ringrose.

Just don't take men who'll never be of the standard required again to hold tackle bags while there's lads with genuine potential out there. And I hate to say it, but I think Trimble's there.

At least Reidy might one day be good enough.

 

[UlsterRugby2012]

Out of curiosity, how many of you complaining about Sean Reidy have actually watched him play the last few months? & Not just the once or twice you've played us.

 

[Groundhog]

Out of curiosity, how many of you complaining about Sean Reidy have actually watched him play the last few months? & Not just the once or twice you've played us.

Seen plenty of Ulster. Reidy is a far cry from a test level player, nor do I believe he ever will be.

 

[Ludders93]

I bet for a living (Not always well!) but this forum is full of great opinions and information. I wish I'd known about it earlier. Rugby's probably been my least successful sport betting wise, but I'm hoping to change that.
Onto the subject why I'm here, I've been following this thread closely, and will do until June and the matches.
I wasn't impressed with Ireland at the 6 nations, but they don't tend to lose games heavily. They have a strong defence, are good at the break down, and Sexton's kicking from hand and the tee is deadly. They start as 14 point underdogs for the Cape Town first test. Perhaps too much, given that no one's quite sure how South Africa will look in the first game under Coetzee.
The test that's worth a large stake, several thousand or more, is the second test in my opinion. It'll be important to asses how the first test plays out, any injuries, team selection, but the second test is in Johannesburg. The bookmakers still haven't caught onto how much harder playing at altitude is especially for a team like Ireland. Yes South Africa have lost games at Ellis Park, but that's only because they play NZ there, and those games are ***anic clashes.

What I'm saying is Backing South Africa to win by 13+ points in that test under the winning margin odds (probably around 4/5), or backing them on the handicap -15 points (to win by 16 or more points) at Evens or 11/10 is huge value. A lot of the Lions team that are racking up 50 points most week in J-berg will be in the SA team.

Ireland's pragmatic effective game plan may bring them success in Test 1 and 3 in Cape Town and Durban. I doubt they'll win a test, but Sexton's boot will keep game's close. But in J-Berg it's hard to see anything but a 20+ point SA win in my opinion. I know it's a little while away, but I'd appreciate anyone's thoughts on the series in general or anything I've said.

Peace x

 

[Gavin]

I would rather taking Ringrose and McCloskey and have then hold tackle bags, learning about the international culture, than them stuck at home watching it on TV.

 

[Peat]

Seen plenty of Ulster. Reidy is a far cry from a test level player, nor do I believe he ever will be.

Probably, aye. He's like Tommy O'Donnell except with no presence at the breakdown.

He's not the worst name in the squad but I was shocked to see him there.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I bet for a living (Not always well!) but this forum is full of great opinions and information. I wish I'd known about it earlier. Rugby's probably been my least successful sport betting wise, but I'm hoping to change that.
Onto the subject why I'm here, I've been following this thread closely, and will do until June and the matches.
I wasn't impressed with Ireland at the 6 nations, but they don't tend to lose games heavily. They have a strong defence, are good at the break down, and Sexton's kicking from hand and the tee is deadly. They start as 14 point underdogs for the Cape Town first test. Perhaps too much, given that no one's quite sure how South Africa will look in the first game under Coetzee.
The test that's worth a large stake, several thousand or more, is the second test in my opinion. It'll be important to asses how the first test plays out, any injuries, team selection, but the second test is in Johannesburg. The bookmakers still haven't caught onto how much harder playing at altitude is especially for a team like Ireland. Yes South Africa have lost games at Ellis Park, but that's only because they play NZ there, and those games are ***anic clashes.

What I'm saying is Backing South Africa to win by 13+ points in that test under the winning margin odds (probably around 4/5), or backing them on the handicap -15 points (to win by 16 or more points) at Evens or 11/10 is huge value. A lot of the Lions team that are racking up 50 points most week in J-berg will be in the SA team.

Ireland's pragmatic effective game plan may bring them success in Test 1 and 3 in Cape Town and Durban. I doubt they'll win a test, but Sexton's boot will keep game's close. But in J-Berg it's hard to see anything but a 20+ point SA win in my opinion. I know it's a little while away, but I'd appreciate anyone's thoughts on the series in general or anything I've said.

Peace x

Welcome to the forum and I'm impressed with your knowledge about both teams I have to say! Yes, J'burg is a completely different game to Newlands and Durban, getting a bit of dominance and width there tends to inflate scores even against quality opposition.

I do hope a large number of Lions players do get the call up. Jantjies is injured but all of Jaco Kriel, Faf de Klerk, Warren Whiteley, Ruan Combrinck and Lionel Mapoe would be fully derservng of a call-up. Jantjies' injury is softened somewhat by the fact that Pat Lambie seems to be in top top form. Add the fact out tight 5 picks itself and is in fine form (Etzebeth coming back from injury though) and the only thing we need is for the right combination of centers to be selected and for them to gel. Easier said than done but the pool of talent in SA at center and fullback is quite impressive- even if a few players are somewhat on the green side- ATM which is something South Africans certainly aren't used too.

So IMO we should be good for a series win even with a new coach but if we are up for the taking, yes, it'll most likely be test no.3; Cape Town we'll come out the blocks firing hard, J'burg opposition traditionally need to bring their A game and altitude adds to a margin as often as not but should we take both those we do have a tendency to take the foot of the pedal game 3 and the Irish are a proud bunch (though they seem to have gone for a lot of non-Irish players this squad?). My prediction is we take the first two and Ireland the 3rd unless we somehow manage to keep the focus.

 

[Ludders93]

Cheers for the reply, you're spot on that Durban test 3 is Ireland's best shot at beating an SA side who've already won the series with half an eye on the rugby championship.

I was glad with the injury to Jantjies because as good as his attacking play and distribution has been this year his goal-kicking stats aren't great. Lambie can kick penalties from 55+ metres (especially at altitude) and since Sexton won't miss kicks it's imperative SA keep their goals.

Ireland's game plan is ultra-conservative. They kick everything, play with no width, and love to tackle and defend. They also have a great rolling maul.
After their awful second half against France, being realistically out of 6 nations contention, they played with more freedom. They were lucky not to be 20 points down against England at half time, but played better in the second half despite losing. They destroyed Italy, but were perhaps lucky to beat Scotland.

Their game plan will be to frustrate SA. Their recent good record against SA isn't a coincidence. The way to beat Ireland is to play with width. To get outside their very narrow defence. As Argentina did extraordinarily well in the WC QF. South Africa tend to play a tight forward orientated game themselves, and this will suit Ireland.

I can see South Africa winning in Cape Town something like 27-15 with a lot of penalties kicked. Then running Ireland ragged in J-Berg 36-14, and I still see SA sneaking the third game, maybe 25-20 or something in Durban.

 

[Groundhog]

Probably, aye. He's like Tommy O'Donnell except with no presence at the breakdown.

He's not the worst name in the squad but I was shocked to see him there.

I'd give the lofty ***le of worst name to Quinn Roux.

 

[unrated]

to me the best Starting XV possible for the first test would be
15 Willie le Roux
14 JP Pietersen
13 Lionel Mapoe
12 Franscois Steyn
11 Ruan Combrinck
10 Patrick Lambie
9 Faf de Klerk
8 Duane Vermeulen
7 Warren Whiteley
6 Daniel du Preez/ or Jean Luc Not really sure who is beter.
5 Eben Etsebeth
4 Pieter Steph du Toit
3 Beast
2 Bismarc du Plessis
1. Brian Mujati?

16 Trevor nyakane
17 Julian Redlinhuys
18 Andries Strauss
19 Francois Louw
20 Jaco Kriel
21 Francois Hougaard
22 Johan Goosen
23 Jesse Kriel

 

[Peat]

Cheers for the reply, you're spot on that Durban test 3 is Ireland's best shot at beating an SA side who've already won the series with half an eye on the rugby championship.

My gut instinct is the first will be their best shot. The South African team will be at their least cohesive and the Irish at their freshest. Shame we don't really have enough data on modern 3 test series to make sure calls on.

I'd give the lofty ***le of worst name to Quinn Roux.

Truth.

 

[JohnKA]

1 - Beast
2 - Adriaan Strauss
3 - Frans Malherbe
4 - Eben Etzebeth
5 - PSDT
6 - Jean-Luc du Preez
7 - Jaco Kriel
8 - Warren Whiteley
9 - Faf de Klerk
10 - Pat Lambie ( CAPT )
11 - Mvovo
12 - Jan Serfontein / Andre Esterhuizen
13 - Lionel Mapoe / Paul Jordaan
14 - JP Peterson
15 - Wilie le Roux