[RWC2019][Semi-Final 1] England vs. New Zealand (26/10/2019)

[TRF_Olyy]

It might come down to who's been oiling their balls in training the most

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Launchbury the only one who's gone for 8 metal studs by the look of it. If it's a firm, fast track with wet ball I'd fancy NZ, a mudbath not so much.

 

[MarkyH]

It might come down to who's been oiling their balls in training the most

If that's the case Wales are favorites for the trophy

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Launchbury the only one who's gone for 8 metal studs by the look of it. If it's a firm, fast track with wet ball I'd fancy NZ, a mudbath not so much.

The other pictures are showing a similar level of water on the actual pitch so I'm not sure studs will save anyone - flippers might be more effective

 

[Kapa O Pango]

It might come down to who's been oiling their balls in training the most

-Warren Gatland wants to know your location-

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Who does this help more?

Call it off, call it a 0 - 0 draw and I'll take our chances in a coin toss!

 

[Goodey]

I heard it was decided by boundaries scored

 

[Scotty]

Who does this help more?

Nz, wet weather means more set piece, more kicks and more lineouts, 4 jumpers plus extra weight of SB then they will get it off the park try to steal our ball and drive.

Tbh i think they will kick it for lineouts anyway, if they steal a couple JGs head could drop and LCD while good thrower isnt the best under pressure which there may be a little bit of.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50181049

I don't know that Eddie is wise to make it this - I wouldn't say it's ever exactly been our strong suit.
Whereas NW have shown again and again they lack nothing in this department.

 

[Jakedood]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-world-cup/2019/10/25/england-can-kick-blacks-distraction-reach-rugby-world-cup-final/

Cracking piece of analysis by Mr Greenwood

 

[Not Eddie Jones]

Well I hope we all enjoy the game tomorrow because it doesn't look like England are gonna be playing NZ all that much between tomorrow and the 2023 World Cup (assuming they even meet in that one). I just read that Wales are touring NZ in the summer of 2020 and Ireland have snapped up the summer of 2022. I doubt England will go there in 2021 as the Lions will be in South Africa and England are likely to have lots of players missing. So apart from a possible couple of games at Twickers in the three autumn international series between now and the 2023 world cup, it doesn't look like England and NZ are gonna bash heads much. Which is a shame, I would love to have seen this current England squad on tour in NZ and see if we could get our third away win there.

 

[MarkyH]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-world-cup/2019/10/25/england-can-kick-blacks-distraction-reach-rugby-world-cup-final/

Cracking piece of analysis by Mr Greenwood

Noooo. Paywall. Any chance of a ctrl c and ctrl v?

 

[Jakedood]

Noooo. Paywall. Any chance of a ctrl c and ctrl v?

Kick and press
This is not about 19th-century-style rugby and not being willing to play. This is about the very honest realisation that if you play from deep against New Zealand then you invite trouble, and more importantly, England would not be playing to their strengths.

England have great collective organisation and a brutal level of physicality, an awesome line-out and quality wingers in the air. Why ignore these match-winning strengths when you don't have to? No one is suggesting that they kick the leather off the ball all the way up the park or ignore space if New Zealand have eight men on the floor. But in a World Cup semi-final, when England are playing up to their own halfway line, their priority should be to manipulate the Kiwi back three in order to create space to kick into and either get the oval ball bouncing or English players catching it.

Once England get close to the halfway line, they should focus on more attacking cross-field kicks or kicks in-behind as out-and-out attacking plays. But from restarts and further back down the field, the skies and the touchline can be England's friend.


Go long and right with restarts
England need to kick long to the right of the field because New Zealand are loaded with right-footed kickers. Going long right, into the opposition's bottom left-hand corner of the field, makes it much harder to box kick and much harder for a team's fly-half to get their clearing kick away.


For a right-footed fly-half in your own bottom left, you must swing your right leg across your body well out in front of you, with no protection of the kicking foot. In the other corner, a right-footed kicker can tilt their body sideways, swing around the ball dropped behind their hip like a goalkeeper and keep the kicking foot further away from any potential charge-down players. This allows their hips, shoulder and body to create a barrier before any chasing player can get a realistic chance of a charge-down.

Classic charge-down territory for a right-footed-fly half is along the left touch line. It is just as hard for the scrum-half, who has to swing the foot around to the openside of the breakdown much closer to the defenders, with the ball in full sight the whole time.

Aaron Smith has wobbled when England have played the All Blacks in previous years. Smith is a beautiful rugby player but I would lay a hefty bet now that England will charge down one of his kicks during this game, especially with big men like Maro Itoje and Courtney Lawes around the fringes. If they are to win, then England need to get into New Zealand and mess with their supply lines. They need to spread panic and chaos in the ranks, and get the All Blacks scrabbling to maintain the ball. If you are the underdogs in a match, which England are, then you need to create mayhem and break the communication chain of the favourites.


Loose, bobbling balls are always the friend of the unfancied side, so do not let Smith get one box-kick away without him feeling some heat. If they pass back to Richie Mo'unga, then England need to know that he has an issue - neither of his centres kick. They may say they do, but they won't want to.


The centres will not kick well if Mo'unga has to shift the ball to them - they will want to force another pass to Beauden Barrett. But two passes in your own 22, even by a team as good as New Zealand, should be an open invitation for carnage.

How do England make that happen? They need to be creative and create a one-man mission for their fastest player. Most teams use the opposite scrum-half to put the pressure on their opposite number when they kick - Faf du Klerk for South Africa or Gareth Davies for Wales are great examples. They are sprinters over the short distances, starting behind the ruck, jogging into it from behind the defensive line and, as soon as the ball has been lifted by the opposing scrum-half, they set off for the No 10 and that right foot again, attacking the space where the swinging right foot will be.

Ben Youngs used to be a wizard at this but his pace isn't what it was. My rogue thought, my creative version for England, would be to give Jonny May, the lightning fast left wing, free rein to hunt down Mo'unga from the first ruck at every restart or after every New Zealand defensive set-piece. England would then need to shift out defensively: Manu Tuilagi to wing; Owen Farrell to 13; George Ford to 12. The thinking behind this is simple - don't waste your speed on returning a bad kick that may not happen. Shut off the good clearance kicks at source and try to make all of the clearance kicks bad.


May can stand in the starter's blocks at first receiver or tucked in behind the defensive line just as Bryan Habana would occasionally. May with a rolling start can cover 10 metres in under a second, but try getting that kick away with him breathing down your neck. England's defensive system can cope with one player being given a one-man marking mission. It becomes 14 v 14 for the rest, with players who know how to defend in wider channels. This is not reinventing the wheel but it gives a view on the thought process behind everything England must do to beat the All Blacks - they need to change the picture. Don't let New Zealand see things that they are expecting. They are masters of understanding what they need to do when they have time to react, prepare and execute. But they are human like everyone else if they see things they were not expecting to see. May hunting down charge-downs would put the fear in to any kicker.


Cross-field kicks can be an awesome way to attack
With the ball and possession, once England get into attacking areas, the cross-kick can be their friend. The two match-ups are Anthony Watson v Sevu Reece and Jonny May v George Bridge. The clear and obvious example in terms of a mismatch in height and aerial play is the former.


Reece is an absolute marvel with the ball in hand and with time and space, but what he cannot do is grow a foot in height by Saturday evening. Watson is world-class at attacking the flat cross-kick. These are not high hang-time kicks, these are more the low flying type, the fizzed, classic three-iron cross-kick. There is less of an advantage for May against Bridge because the All Black is excellent in the air.

Even so, England should use the cross-field kick early on in the game because they need to have both New Zealand wings worried about the cross-kick and the need to have their full-back, Beauden Barrett, worried about it, too.

England need to separate the New Zealand full-back from standing behind the midfield and controlling his players in the same way that Smith controls his players from scrum-half around the ruck. England need to remove some comms from their system and spread out the All Black defence.

Once that happens, the big English runners can find gaps and elbows, not shoulders and hard hits. Put distance between Barrett and his wingers and when England go to their classic play book - the double pull-back ball, behind Vunipola and Tuilagi, from the line-out or behind Slade and Tuilagi from scrums - then they have the chance of seeing a disconnect between the All Black midfield and the wings.


That is exactly what England want. This will allow the flyers of Watson-Daly-May from the right-hand side and May-Daly-Watson from the left-hand side to sweep round and be the ball players, picking off a disjointed defensive system.

 

[Jakedood]

Get your clearing kicks into the stands
The kick that requires total concentration from England's perspective is the box-kicking from Ben Youngs. This will most likely take two forms - under control from a restart, or from a line-out in our own third. The ball will be accurately transferred to the hindmost foot of the forwards' caterpillar and the ball will ideally have a hang time of between three and four seconds, covering a distance up the field of about 30 metres. The aim is to have the chaser either compete or tackle the catcher immediately on landing.

It has to be accurate, especially when kicking to an organised All Blacks defence pressing the midfield. That's the good version - one controlled by England. The difficulties occur when England have to scramble tackle, back into their own 22 or close to their goal line, breathing out of holes they didn't know they had, with key players trapped at the bottom of a ruck, forwards in the midfield, second rows on the wing.

When that happens, it is vital that England's No 9s breathe calmly and slow down the rotation of the world. It is then that they must think clearly. The ball must go into touch, by at least 10 metres - well off the pitch.

That box-kick cannot be allowed to miss touch or be caught by the All Blacks just off the field of play so they can launch a pass to the midfield and Barrett. That is when a team is finished and it is in those moments of panic that a team concedes points and momentum.

Gareth Davies and Dan Biggar did it twice last week - two poor kicks cost them one try, then another cost them a yellow card and, eventually, another one. If you miss the stadium seats with those kicks, there is no organisation, it is difficult to reconnect and the training of the All Blacks' attacking players and their ability to pick off a disorganised defence is now ruthless.

Challenge Barrett to do his worst
I genuinely believe England have a free shot to rattle the All Blacks and invite their superhero Beauden Barrett to make a mistake. This would be my least favourite kicking option but you don't get many chances at beating the All Blacks in a World Cup semi-final. Sometimes you have to take risks and if the whole team understands what they are doing, then it is a risk worth taking.

If you are going to stress the best of the best, you target their weaknesses, but you also have to target their strengths and see if you can cause them to rupture. Beauden Barrett loves nothing more than heading towards a bouncing ball that has been kicked by a team behind the All Black defensive line. He is waiting for this moment because he loves to execute one-handed pick ups and awesome passes. His ability to do this is freakish because it is so hard to do. It is truly an awesome skill - almost off the charts complex, rugby's equivalent of the Simone Biles' 'triple-double' gymnastics manoeuvre. And that is exactly why it can be targeted.

England need to lure him in and remove the safety net. Drop the ball in behind - to Barrett's left preferably - get the ball on the deck, create a foot race between him and the English wings, and in behind the flyers put a secondary line of back-row and midfield players.

Talk to him as the kick pops over: "Space on the right if you fancy it Beauden, let's see the one-handed pick up." Invite the maestro to perform the impossible and see what happens.

I am not advocating loose chips that Barrett gathers and duly puts England to the sword. I am not advocating trash talk or sledging. I am advocating sowing some seeds of doubt. I am advocating getting the ball on the deck just in behind the wingers and off to Barrett's weaker side, to have him chasing back for the ball, to give him the feeling of isolation but with the encouragement to perform. It is risky, but you never know - even the greatest tightrope walkers occasionally wobble.

The semi-final of a Rugby World Cup is won on small margins. But it is also usually won by the team that does the basics best and executes the core skills of rugby. New Zealand and England both love kicking the ball. The team that kicks best, which kicks to manipulate space and player spacing, which applies pressure to kickers and receivers, that is the team that will win on Saturday.

 

[MarkyH]

Awesome. Good read too. Thanks @Jakedood appreciated

 

[Jakedood]

Awesome. Good read too. Thanks @Jakedood appreciated

My pleasure my friend

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Squidge doesn't give any team left a chance v the ABs.

 

[Cooper]

Well I hope we all enjoy the game tomorrow because it doesn't look like England are gonna be playing NZ all that much between tomorrow and the 2023 World Cup (assuming they even meet in that one). I just read that Wales are touring NZ in the summer of 2020 and Ireland have snapped up the summer of 2022. I doubt England will go there in 2021 as the Lions will be in South Africa and England are likely to have lots of players missing. So apart from a possible couple of games at Twickers in the three autumn international series between now and the 2023 world cup, it doesn't look like England and NZ are gonna bash heads much. Which is a shame, I would love to have seen this current England squad on tour in NZ and see if we could get our third away win there.

This is what I was complaining about, they need to make a better effort getting the NH teams out to NZ more regularly.

 

[Cooper]

Squidge doesn't give any team left a chance v the ABs.

Great vid that, touched on what I was saying about coaches having little time to prepare for the new attacking formations we have developed over the last 11 months. I originally had fears vs Ireland because I wasn't sure how far along we were in nailing it, but after playing them I feel a lot more confident. I really want to put Jones and England to the sword as well, but you can never write Eddie off, let us see what he has in store, because I'm sure he's got a few things up his sleeve too.

 

[Grizwald]

What happened to the Kiwi prop who was an ex bouncer who played against England at in the AI's?