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If both sides finished on equal points Italy would go through, because the first tiebreaker is head-to-head.
No one is really saying that Italy beating the all blacks is likely, it's just that NZ were asked if they felt like playing and they said no.
If NZ had lost against SA and needed this game to go ahead, it would have. That's shite.
****. For about the zillionth time I get the tie-breaker rules wrong. Okay, I have more sympathy for Italy then and shouldnt let my hostility towards how hapless they were cloud my judgement.